NEPAL: ENTER CHINA, EXIT INDIA?

N.P.Upadhyaya

Kathmandu: Gone are the days of Indian hegemony in Nepal, it appears. The self-proclaimed “big-brother”-India-now will have yet another “real big brother” in Kathmandu to counter the Indian hegemony.
If one were to believe what the freshly appointed Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Zhen Xianglin, has said to a vernacular fortnightly the other day, what appears to be for sure is that China will henceforth not tolerate any Indian hegemony and dictates imposed on this India-locked country.
Ambassador Xianglin appears to have understood the inner problems and the issues plaguing this country in details though his stay in Kathmandu has not even exceeded two months time.

However, the manner he has understood the political events currently unfolding in this country and the way he has expressed his country’s views in a firm and determined style does hint that now onwards China too would be a “player” in Nepali politics which is what Comrade Prachanda too prefers.
This means that China as a “traditional and trustworthy neighbor of Nepal” will have its own axis in Nepal that will comprise of a single country-China itself.
Judging at what the Chinese Ambassador has told to the vernacular fortnightly, what becomes abundantly clear is that China will be more interested now onwards to safeguard her own political interests in this country that are aplenty, to say the least.
The Chinese envoy assuring Nepal in a subtle manner authoritatively says that China has not yet deflected from what Marshal Chen Yi as back as in 1961 October 2 had told of Nepal.

To recall, Marshal Chen Yi during a visit to Kathmandu had said, in his own words, “China will not tolerate if there is any aggression against Nepal by any country”.
The Chinese envoy’s emphasis and reassurance to the Nepalese people that China still valued what Marshal Chen Yi said long time back must force some countries in Nepal’s neighborhood to pull their hairs.
The countries near and far dictating Nepal to do this or to do that must not have taken these fresh Chinese sentimental attachments towards Nepal in good taste.
Now what is more than clear is that China will show its presence in this country which so far remained in what has been called as a “low profile” status.
Beijing, better late than never, appears to have realized that any political disturbances in Nepal and its adjoining areas might have a profound impact upon its own under belly-Tibet autonomous region. It is perhaps these factors which prompts the Chinese envoy to suggest the Nepali establishment to sort out the political issues plaguing the Terai/Madhesh at the earliest fearing probably its impact might reach up to the bordering town of China.

However, China says, no external interference should be there while sorting out the Terai issues. This is significant in more ways than one. The message should be loud and clear to those who have been poking their nose in Nepal’s what the Ambassador says, “Internal affairs”.
The Chinese Ambassador appears more than happy with the Nepalese authorities who have assured him and his country that any anti-China activities will not be allowed to occur in the Nepali soil.
In effect, this is what China wants from Nepal and in lieu China is more than willing to contribute to the development of this country by what ever means it can. Chinese grand assurance comes once again in the form of a million dollar assurance wherein its commits itself that China will come into action the moment she concludes that Nepal’s territorial integrity and national independence were in jeopardy.
However, what is bewildering some analysts is that such similar statement both in content and nature had emanated in Kathmandu early last year when a Chinese State councilor Tang Jiaxuan-a comparatively higher authority in the Chinese state hierarchy-too had assured the then ruling regime but when it came to the crunch, the expected Chinese support was “missing”.

Look what Mr. Tang had said then, “We consistently support Nepal in its effort to safeguard sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Nepal is a sovereign country, and its internal affairs shall not be interfered with in any way by any outside forces. We believe that the Nepalese government and people have the political wisdom and capabilities to solve their own problems.
How and which factors/forces converged together and managed the ouster of the Royal regime is any body’s guess. The naked Indian interference that was visible then is not a thing that any one could presume that the Chinese authorities did not know or understand.
The Royal regime definitely had counted on Chinese support more so after the Tang’s speech made right here in Kathmandu. The Chinese silence acquired then is yet shrouded in a mystery

Should this mean that China will even now allow Indian South Block mandarins to impose their heinous dictates in an uninterrupted manner and would only come into full action or play when India infringed upon Nepal’s territorial integrity and sovereignty? At least this much becomes visible from the Chinese Ambassador’s interview. However, surprising though it may appear to some, more so to the chagrin of the Americans, the Chinese envoy sees a friend in the Maoists. He says since they have been already a part of the interim government that enjoys people’s mandate and legitimacy so nothing could be said of the Maoists. He further says that “looking the Maoists might differ from one country to the other hinting that China does not bother what the Americans see the Maoists. Hmmm….
In a subtle manner, the Chinese envoy possesses some soft corner for the Maoists for reasons unknown to analysts here. But some intelligent brains here conclude that China would keep the Maoists close to them in order to distance the India’s all pervasive political interference in this country.

To put it in another words, China would want the Maoists to act like a deterrent against the Indian hegemony in Nepal which others have failed so far.
No wonder, some top Maoists leaders have already traveled to China in order to build conducive political atmosphere in their favor.
Reports have it that Comrade Prachanda together his son-Prakash-will be visiting Beijing some where around October-November.
This is no less disturbing news for Indian authorities.
Added reports say that one Chinese professor Wang Hoi mediated the China-Maoists friendship. Prof. Wang is considered to be a brain on South Asian affairs.
Be that as it may, with China’s forceful assertion that it would have its presence felt in this country bodes well for this India-locked country for a variety of seen and unseen reasons.

No less important is the Chinese envoy’s admission that his country was ready to supply petro-products to Nepal if properly requested.
Analysts presume the Chinese political influence, in that eventuality will be, mathematically speaking, inversely proportional to that of the self-proclaimed big-brothers’ influence in Nepal.
Not a bad news. It’s time that the South Block mandarins begin pulling their hairs! However, Indians are not that fools. They have several cards under their sleeve and countless stooges working day in day out funded by the notorious RAW-Research Analysis Wing. Which card they will use to counter the fresh Chinese enthusiastic political overtures will have to be watched and how in such an eventuality, the Chinese retort back will be no less entertaining-speaking on political terms.

Source: The Telegraph Nepal, June 14, 2007