Global Warming And South Asia

Dr. Trilochan Upreti

GLOBAL warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the earth and the oceans in recent times, and in the future. Gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride and hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) and water vapour are called green house gases, which are collected in the atmosphere like a blanket trapping the sun's heat that is radiated off the earth's surface. These gases have been contributing factors to global warming over the past 50 years, during which the average global temperature is said to have increased at the fastest rate recorded in history and is expected to keep increasing at a rate of up to 2 degrees Celsius in the next 50 years. This would eventually lead to a rise in the sea levels that will inundate the low lying coastal belts, even leading to many smaller islands being totally submerged. InundationThe Maldives will disappear along with many island nations; one third of Bangladesh will be under water and, likewise, low lying belts of many coastal states would also be inundated. Consequently, there would be other disastrous effects. For example, there would be frequent incidents of extreme weather conditions like floods, heat waves, droughts and hurricanes that would trigger natural calamities, making human life more difficult than ever.

There have been no dearth of scientists and politicians who maintained that global warming is part of a natural process that occurs due to non-human causes like solar activity, volcanic emissions and so on. However, after the landmark report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose drafting was marked by an angry row, the argument blaming nature for global warming has lost its trust and credibility, and the world community has unanimously blamed human intervention for the issues. This is an interesting shift in the mind-set of the global community concerning the issue.The IPCC has strongly suggested that countries ought to adopt strategies to mitigate global warming through measures such as energy conservation and shifting to renewable sources of energy to displace carbon fuels and, thus, reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. As a result of such concern, the Kyoto Protocol was drawn up. The protocol is an agreement made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. By 2006, 169 countries, responsible for 61.6% of emissions, have ratified it except the USA and Australia.

The USA, which is the largest economy of the world and contributes 25% of the global emission, has not ratified the Convention arguing that allowing unfettered emission levels to countries like India and China is unacceptable and that the USA has adopted effective measures for combatting global warming issues on its own. Whereas the developing countries are directly blaming the developed countries for the global warming, they are also maintaining that they first need to develop their own economy, a process which would be hampered by compliance with the instrument at this juncture in time. Those responsible for the irreparable damage due to climate change and problems associated with it should reverse the impacts through their own effort. Thus, global warming has remained a threat to the existence of the earth and its inhabitants, including the flora and fauna.The IPCC report predicts that billions of people will face water scarcity and hundreds of millions will likely go hungry, mainly in the poorest regions least to blame for spewing the fossil fuel pollution that is driving up temperatures. Likewise, glacier meltdown and ice sheet erosion will accelerate, which would impact the sea levels, causing devastating impacts on the coastal states. Similarly, upto 30 per cent of the planet's plants and animal species will become extinct, if temperatures rise by 1.50C to 2.50C.

The poorest regions and continents will suffer the most - tropical countries, African continent and the SAARC region. That means the melting of glaciers and Himalaya in Nepal would adversely affect the entire SAARC region and its weather pattern, causing abnormal drought and floods, which will contribute to the scourge of famine upon one billion people. One third of Bangladesh and huge swathes of Indian coastal territory would be inundated, inviting extraordinary problems of human survival in the entire South Asian region. Numerous problems not yet identified would emerge, leaving no space for easy resolution. These nations are already witnessing huge problems for their economic development, and tackling the issues of poverty will have to confront additional formidable problems. Eventually, it would invite inconceivable conflicts amongst communities, states and nations making it extremely difficult to find a point of resolution.One must study its impact at the national level by recalling that many bridges and one hydropower plant were washed away when one glacial lake caused by a retreating Himalayan glacier in Solokhumbu district burst a few years ago.

What would be the effect when glacial retreat and melting of the Himalayan peaks occur at the same time? We have huge human settlements near the banks of rivers, and most of the fertile lands in the hills lie on the banks of rivers. When such catastrophes occur, it will wash away people and inundate and fill up adjoining agricultural lands with sand and boulders.No one can even predict the magnitude of its implication for India and Bangladesh, where huge devastations and disasters will wash away millions of people and waste millions hectares of agricultural land. Towns and cities will be transformed into graveyards. Clean hydropower should be developed and used by the needy countries by adopting an equitable sharing of the benefits of the immense water resources of the region. In this context, this time could be the best for resolving every outstanding issue on sharing and utilising the huge water resources in the SAARC region by addressing the past grievances and also accommodating the future needs of all nations on an equal and equitable basis. Blame gameRather than blaming each other, the developed and developing countries like China, India and Brazil should comply with the provision of the Kyoto protocol by involving themselves in the resolution of the problem and making space to exist for future generations. The developed nations should assist them wholeheartedly for obtaining this global objective.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 17, 2007

Running Local Bodies

THE local bodies have been without elected representatives for years. As a result, people have been facing tremendous problems. The civil servants are now running the local bodies, which is not in line with democratic practices and the concept of decentralised governance. After the success of Jana Andolan II and restoration of democracy, an all-party democratic government was formed at the centre. People had thought alternative measures would be taken to run the local bodies. However, no decision has been taken to run the local bodies. In the absence of people's representatives, some major development-related decisions have not been taken. It is obvious that civil servants often hesitate to take any bold decision at the local level. Thus, local development activities have been affected. Against this background, the political parties, civil society and local people have been demanding that some alternative arrangement be made to run the local bodies. Since an all-party government is functioning at the centre, a similar exercise can be carried out at the local level as well. Local self-governance enhances democracy at the grassroots, as it empowers people to take decisions for their needs.

Local bodies function vibrantly in a democracy. The local bodies not only cater to the needs of the people but also act as a genuine agent for development at the grassroots level. In the absence of local authorities, the people's problems cannot be addressed. The best alternative is to hold election to the local bodies. But in the present context, election to the local bodies does not seem possible as the country is making preparations for the election to a constituent assembly. The election to the local bodies can be held only after the constituent assembly writes a new constitution. The election to a constituent assembly and writing a new constitution will, however, take a long time. Thus, election to the local bodies may not be possible in the next couple of years. It is not good to keep the local bodies without people's representatives for years. Thus, alternative arrangements must be made to run the local bodies by the people's representatives. For this, the eight parties need to discuss seriously and arrive at a common ground for running the local bodies. Since it is the issue of the people, the political parties must not think which party gains and which party loses. They should decide taking into account the overall interest of the people and the nation. This is the spirit of a democratic and coalition culture.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 18, 2007

Eye of the needle

The Melamchi drinking water project, much touted to meet the needs of the water-deficit Kathmandu Valley, has been pending for nearly two decades for one reason or another, though a pretty sum, Rs. 4 billion, has already been spent in its name. The management of water distribution in the Valley was to be awarded to a foreign firm, Severn Trent Water International (ST), the only bidder for the contract. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the main financier of the country’s biggest drinking water project, attached the loan conditionality that the Valley’s water distribution be transferred to ST, a controversial firm said to have an unsatisfactory record of performance in other countries. But the CPN-Maoist’s entry into the newly formed interim government, with the ministry concerned headed by its representative, seems to have upset the original plans.

Minister Hisila Yami has let pass the May 15 deadline ST gave the government to sign a contract with it, otherwise threatening to opt out. With the minister having second thoughts about allowing a foreign firm to manage the distribution, ADB’s loan pledge of $120 million for the project is now in serious jeopardy. ADB has threatened to end its commitment if ST does not get the contract. But Yami is reported as saying that its pullout would throw open new possibilities. The fees for the management contract, which ADB is supposed to pay ST, would stand at $8.5 million for a six-year term. The minister says she wants to go over the ST contract afresh before deciding.

Some argue that the government could not run the Valley’s water distribution satisfactorily from 1990 to 1999 despite the infusion of $100 million worth of aid, loan and technical support. ADB thought Nepal needed foreign expertise. ADB’s loan would go into the construction of the project’s costliest component — the 26.5-km diversion tunnel linking the Melamchi River in Sindhupalchok district to Sundarijal in Kathmandu — as well as into improving the Valley’s bulk distribution system. According to the state-owned Nepal Water Supply Corporation’s estimate, water waste through leakage alone stands at 40 per cent of the total supply. But the very premise that the problems of water management are one of lack of expertise is deeply flawed. It is rather one of intention, of accountability, of failure to crack down on corruption. The government agencies, including ministries and departments, and public sector undertakings face similar problems, as anybody with some familiarity with this area in Nepal would know. If one were to accept the foreign-expertise contention, one would also have to accept that many other donor-funded projects and programmes are in need of the same shock treatment. Strangely, little attention has been paid to the optimum utilisation of the available water and the existing water sources, and all attention seems to have been concentrated on mega projects costing many billions of dollars. One wonders if this has no deeper meaning and a better management of the current supply alone would not relieve the problem significantly.

Source: The Himalayan Times, May 18, 2007

Educational Reform Plan : Opportunity And Challenge

Devi Prasad Bhattarai

The Ministry of Education and Sport (MOES) has introduced a Three-year Interim Education Policy in the school system in light of the changing landscape in national and global education. The policy attempts to bring changes in the school education system to meet the recent policy gap after Jana Andolan II. The policy is crucial because of its response to the existing problems in education, in particular, and the transitional period the nation is undergoing, in general.Since the establishment of democracy in 1990, with the soar in people's aspirations, the education system has been criticised for its standard, said to be poorer in comparison to that of other countries, especially the SAARC countries. Indeed, the new policy tries to address the fundamental issues of education. But implementing it may be a challenging endeavour.

Future outline

The policy has attempted to revisit various aspects of school education. It has introduced some significant changes for pursuing the educational plan for the next three years as an interim and transitional plan. The policy has not only addressed the present needs of the country but also sketched the future outline of the education system. The policy has been prepared to respond to a sustainable and progressive education system commensurate to a democratic society. For this, it has prepared a long-term strategic vision, which is a continuation of the vision of the 10th Plan in education. Under this long-term vision, it will continue with the policy of devolving public schools to the community. Furthermore, it has sought an improvement in the existing school structure to make the system more relevant with the prevailing school systems of the world.According to the proposed structure, basic and primary education encompasses eight years (1-8) and secondary education four years (9-12). Therefore, total schooling will be of 12 years. For the effective implementation of the programmes, the proposed interim plan has introduced a strategy on curriculum development, teacher training, examination and quality improvement. The policy has introduced a system that will allow students to shift from non-formal, technical and vocational education to appropriate grades in the formal education system and vice-versa.

Overall, the major strategies concern: decentralisation of education, inclusion of ethnic and disadvantaged groups, integrated implementation management, capacity building programme, application of information technology, improvement in school investment and grant system, curriculum development and implementation process, and student evaluation and validation. To execute these strategies, the draft has mentioned various programmes and schedules. These programmes are to be implemented by focusing on the ongoing and special programmes. They include Literacy and Income Based Programmes, Alternative School Education (Distance and Open Learning), Pre- Primary Education/ Early Childhood Education, Basic Education, Secondary Education, Vocational Training and Technical Education, Higher Education, Quality Development in Education, Sports Development Programme, Youth Development and Scouting Programme, Physical Construction and Re-Construction Programme, And Educational Management. Depending upon the distribution and volume of these programmes, it has allocated estimated expenditures for their implementation for each of the years.

On the downside, the policy is less aware of the possible hindrances to implementation. The striking challenge is the possibility of a stern lack of professional expertise in curriculum designing, materials development, and monitoring and evaluation at the local level as the policy proposes handing over part of these responsibilities to the local level. Effective implementation of the policy will largely depend on the technical, administrative and academic competency of the local people. Therefore, the problem of capacity building at the community and school levels could lead to strategic failure in action. As the proposed structure in education demands improved and upgraded physical infrastructure, the proposed policy in this regard is insufficient. For example, a primary school that provides education up to Grade 5 needs to improve its physical and human resource to cater to an 8-year primary education. On the other hand, managing education widely in the mother tongue is praiseworthy, but its success largely depends on effective teacher education programmes based on the native languages. The policy is not clear about curriculum development in the native languages.The programme of providing scholarships to all the disadvantaged groups is noteworthy, but simply providing them to the communities may not always attract them towards schooling unless the parents of the children can change mentally. For example, scholarships are misused by the parents, and the money is used for purposes other than education.

In higher education, the policy has given continuity to phasing out the intermediate level in Tribhuvan University. The policy is not new because such efforts were made in the past. Unless initiatives are taken to effectively phase out the intermediate level from the university, it will only hamper the educational programmes to be implemented for improving higher education. Absence of a fixed policy in higher education in the past has resulted in the dual system in education at present - higher secondary education and the intermediate level of TU serve the same purpose. On the other hand, developing an umbrella act for universities is praiseworthy, but the policy of providing autonomy to the campuses will be a challenging task due to the extreme politics that take place in the campuses. So a strong commitment and respect by the political parties and their sister organisations are desirable at the campus level. In higher education, the government has been providing budget for the teacher's salary and not sufficiently funding research and professional development so important to sustain higher education and enhance quality education.

Impediments

It is, thus, desirable to analyse and envisage the possible challenges and impediments to implementing the policy. Donor nations and agencies should be asked to assist in the country's transformation in education. The policy should not be rigid so that changes can be brought from time to time to address any lapses. Similarly, there must be strong commitment to policy implementation on the part of the government. For this, there must be motivation among the stakeholders, continuous monitoring, supervision and evaluation in running the programme. Based on the feedback, there must be effort to improve the policy and programmes. Should this happen, the policy will be a watershed in the history of education.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 18, 2007

Oil crisis: Management of financial resources

Raghab D Pant

It is now clear that the occasional shortage of oil and oil products in the market followed by the long queues at the petrol pumps is due to the inability of the government to adjust domestic price to a change in world prices as well as its hesitation to release adequate funds to the concerned institution to maintain such artificial domestic price, fixed by administrative whim, rather than by market supply and demand. As a result, the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC), a government-owned enterprise with monopoly on oil import, is virtually bankrupt with no resources to import oil except on credit that one creditor, namely the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), has refused to provide without part payment of past dues — a reasonable, if not very soft, demand.

This means, in effect, there will be adequate oil in the market if (i) the import trade is only on cash basis; (ii) the import payment is made in accordance with the agreement reached between NOC and IOC; (iii) the domestic price is adjusted regularly to meet import price, and (iv) the government reduces the tax it has imposed on import of oil and oil products by NOC. In the latter two cases, NOC will be able to run its operation with huge profit.Unfortunately, the government has decided not to change the domestic price of oil before the election to the Constituent Assembly or to take any other measures on the domestic front — there have been customary long talks of involving private sector in the import trade of oil — to solve all the current problems once and for all. The government, on the other hand, has unnecessarily provided the issue a “cover of national crisis” and, as expected, the PM called the Indian ambassador for his help “in getting full supply of petroleum products resumed to Nepal,” though the Government of India has nothing to do with the crisis whatsoever except that IOC is also a government enterprise with a written business deal with NOC.

It is now safe to assume that the intensity of the problem may lessen only if the IOC decides to provide oil and oil products on credit to its bankrupt colleague. It will, however, further deepen the financial crisis of NOC as it is obliged to sell the goods at a price which is substantially less than the cost it has to incur. The Government of Nepal will, of course, benefit, firstly, by solving the current problem characterised by the shortage of oil and oil products and its low national reserve and, secondly, by an increase in government revenue from the tax paid by NOC on the import of oil. The only loser will be IOC and if I were its executive director I would definitely not sell goods to another enterprise that has difficulty making a part payment of Rs 240 million on a loan of about Rs 6000 million.

The government has often used the generosity offered by the Indian government for political purposes, in particular, to maintain the distorted domestic price structure that cannot be sustained in the long run or in the absence of assistance from India. The price of oil and oil products is the current example. Similarly, the exchange rate of the Nepali currency vis-à-vis Indian currency has been maintained at an artificial level by the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) by selling its US dollar to the Reserve Bank of India for the Indian currency, for which it has no adequate reserve to meet the public demand at the fixed rate of NRs160=IRs100; in the first six months of the current fiscal year, according to press reports, NRB has boughtRs 50 billion worth of Indian currency by paying US dollar. In addition, the import payment of about 91 commodities from India is made in dollar. It appears that such a misuse of the generosity provided by the friendly country has given the false impression to the public with a negative feeling about the concerned country itself.It is difficult to understand the national financial management in a unified method. NOC has difficulty making a part payment on its past dues, as stated earlier. The Government of Nepal, on the other hand, has no shortage of resources — the unused cash reserve of the Government of Nepal at the NRB in mid-April, 2007, totals Rs 18 billion — as its capital expenditure in the first ten months of the current fiscal year totals just Rs 11 billion, or 25 per cent of the allocated budget.

The government’s inability to use available resources for development has been instrumental in creating “stagflation” in the country, an economic situation characterised by stagnant income in real terms and rising price level. In fact, the government, if it so desires, can provide financial resources to NOC to clear the outstanding loan of IOC. There would be no reason to panic if the government managed the available resources with proper coordination within and among the ministries — a rare commodity for Nepal. The whole crisis can be solved with a minimum but intelligent effort.Dr Pant is executive director, Institute for Development Studies

High Time To Sort Out Differences

Prem N. Kakkar

THE country is going through a transition phase, which is considered difficult times by any standard. There are records of other countries having immense hardships on the way to lasting peace and political stability. Yet, the case of Nepal is totally different from other such countries where third party mediation was necessary. It goes to the credit of the Nepalese people that they themselves chose to solve their own problems. If that had not been the case the story would have been different.

Return of democracy

The success of the April uprising proves that the people cannot take brutal rule for long. The bubble has to burst, and it did a little over a year back. It was a time to rejoice at the achievement, the return of democracy and reinstatement of the House of Representatives. Of course, things are different now with various contentious issues coming up in recent times. The eight parties that were instrumental in bringing the country to the present state are once again at the centre stage. The interim government was formed, and the legislature parliament is there. But the past agreements between the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists have not been adhered to fully. This is quite unfortunate. In fact, the hurried pace at doing many things can be cited as the root cause for many of the problems that we see today.

It has been a long time since the leaders of the eight parties have sat down to sort out thorny issues. In the meanwhile, the legislature-parliament proceeding have been disrupted due to disgruntled lawmakers. The Speaker of the parliament tried his best to get the House proceedings to move smoothly by holding consultation with the leaders of the various parties, including Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, but to no avail. Wednesday's proceeding was adjourned even before it could begin. The next meeting is scheduled for May 24 by when the Speaker hopes matters would be resolved.The other day, too, Prime Minister Koirala had a meeting with the lawmakers from the Terai who have put up many demands. It is reported that the prime minister was positive to the concerns of the Terai MPs. It was just an attempt to break the deadlock. The stalemate in the legislature parliament is costing the country dearly because several bills need urgent clearance, including some concerning the constituent assembly elections. But as the proceeding have not taken place, the delay has only lengthened. The same leaders who want greater speed have actually slowed the process down.

The eight-party meeting has not taken place since the Election Commission (EC) said that the CA polls cannot be held by mid-June. Despite Premier Koirala's meeting with several of the eight-party leaders, nothing concrete has developed so far. It seems that the Maoists are distancing themselves as they want a republic to be declared by the parliament itself, which is not backed by the Nepali Congress. This seems to have created a sense of mistrust, which must be removed at all cost.The unity of the eight parties is very crucial in giving a safe passage to the country. This has been stressed time and again. It is consensus that has made the country rebound in the past several months and that is what is needed at present. Not seeing eye to eye cannot be beneficial to any party, let alone the people. An important thing is that the management of the Maoist cantonments must be undertaken as soon as possible. The living conditions of the Maoist combatants deserves attention if the second phase of the verification process is to continue.

Unity

There are many tasks ahead that need to be addressed so that the eight-party unity can continue. The unity is needed because without it there are dangers that the regressive elements, according to many political leaders, will topple the achievements made so far. The leaders know well that the genuine problems of the various agitating groups have to be resolved so that the political situation is conducive to holding the CA polls. When they all realise this, they should come forward to sit together and discuss the issues and possible solutions. That is the only way out through a consensus. But for this to happen, flexibility is the key requirement as their moves are not for themselves alone but for the Nepali people in general.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 18, 2007