Global Warming And South Asia

Dr. Trilochan Upreti

GLOBAL warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the earth and the oceans in recent times, and in the future. Gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride and hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) and water vapour are called green house gases, which are collected in the atmosphere like a blanket trapping the sun's heat that is radiated off the earth's surface. These gases have been contributing factors to global warming over the past 50 years, during which the average global temperature is said to have increased at the fastest rate recorded in history and is expected to keep increasing at a rate of up to 2 degrees Celsius in the next 50 years. This would eventually lead to a rise in the sea levels that will inundate the low lying coastal belts, even leading to many smaller islands being totally submerged. InundationThe Maldives will disappear along with many island nations; one third of Bangladesh will be under water and, likewise, low lying belts of many coastal states would also be inundated. Consequently, there would be other disastrous effects. For example, there would be frequent incidents of extreme weather conditions like floods, heat waves, droughts and hurricanes that would trigger natural calamities, making human life more difficult than ever.

There have been no dearth of scientists and politicians who maintained that global warming is part of a natural process that occurs due to non-human causes like solar activity, volcanic emissions and so on. However, after the landmark report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose drafting was marked by an angry row, the argument blaming nature for global warming has lost its trust and credibility, and the world community has unanimously blamed human intervention for the issues. This is an interesting shift in the mind-set of the global community concerning the issue.The IPCC has strongly suggested that countries ought to adopt strategies to mitigate global warming through measures such as energy conservation and shifting to renewable sources of energy to displace carbon fuels and, thus, reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. As a result of such concern, the Kyoto Protocol was drawn up. The protocol is an agreement made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. By 2006, 169 countries, responsible for 61.6% of emissions, have ratified it except the USA and Australia.

The USA, which is the largest economy of the world and contributes 25% of the global emission, has not ratified the Convention arguing that allowing unfettered emission levels to countries like India and China is unacceptable and that the USA has adopted effective measures for combatting global warming issues on its own. Whereas the developing countries are directly blaming the developed countries for the global warming, they are also maintaining that they first need to develop their own economy, a process which would be hampered by compliance with the instrument at this juncture in time. Those responsible for the irreparable damage due to climate change and problems associated with it should reverse the impacts through their own effort. Thus, global warming has remained a threat to the existence of the earth and its inhabitants, including the flora and fauna.The IPCC report predicts that billions of people will face water scarcity and hundreds of millions will likely go hungry, mainly in the poorest regions least to blame for spewing the fossil fuel pollution that is driving up temperatures. Likewise, glacier meltdown and ice sheet erosion will accelerate, which would impact the sea levels, causing devastating impacts on the coastal states. Similarly, upto 30 per cent of the planet's plants and animal species will become extinct, if temperatures rise by 1.50C to 2.50C.

The poorest regions and continents will suffer the most - tropical countries, African continent and the SAARC region. That means the melting of glaciers and Himalaya in Nepal would adversely affect the entire SAARC region and its weather pattern, causing abnormal drought and floods, which will contribute to the scourge of famine upon one billion people. One third of Bangladesh and huge swathes of Indian coastal territory would be inundated, inviting extraordinary problems of human survival in the entire South Asian region. Numerous problems not yet identified would emerge, leaving no space for easy resolution. These nations are already witnessing huge problems for their economic development, and tackling the issues of poverty will have to confront additional formidable problems. Eventually, it would invite inconceivable conflicts amongst communities, states and nations making it extremely difficult to find a point of resolution.One must study its impact at the national level by recalling that many bridges and one hydropower plant were washed away when one glacial lake caused by a retreating Himalayan glacier in Solokhumbu district burst a few years ago.

What would be the effect when glacial retreat and melting of the Himalayan peaks occur at the same time? We have huge human settlements near the banks of rivers, and most of the fertile lands in the hills lie on the banks of rivers. When such catastrophes occur, it will wash away people and inundate and fill up adjoining agricultural lands with sand and boulders.No one can even predict the magnitude of its implication for India and Bangladesh, where huge devastations and disasters will wash away millions of people and waste millions hectares of agricultural land. Towns and cities will be transformed into graveyards. Clean hydropower should be developed and used by the needy countries by adopting an equitable sharing of the benefits of the immense water resources of the region. In this context, this time could be the best for resolving every outstanding issue on sharing and utilising the huge water resources in the SAARC region by addressing the past grievances and also accommodating the future needs of all nations on an equal and equitable basis. Blame gameRather than blaming each other, the developed and developing countries like China, India and Brazil should comply with the provision of the Kyoto protocol by involving themselves in the resolution of the problem and making space to exist for future generations. The developed nations should assist them wholeheartedly for obtaining this global objective.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 17, 2007