All attention on the Army

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Chiran Jung Thapa

Rookmangud Katawal
Once again, the Army has become the centre of attention. First, it was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rookmangud Katawal's salvo against the integration of the Maoist rebels that caused a stir. Then immediately following his remarks, the Maoists accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." And now, the hottest debate underway is about the idea of mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative Constituent Assembly elections (CA).

It was the COAS' non-accommodative remarks that started the wave. Hinting at the issue of Maoist integration into the Army, General Katawal had strongly opined that no politically indoctrinated individual or group should be inducted into the national army. While the Prime minister and most other political leaders concurred with Katawal's sentiments, the Maoist boss - Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda lambasted Gen. Katawal questioning his authority to make such remarks on integration.

But the fussing did not stop there. The Maoist retorted by making an even more sensational allegation. Dahal and his second-in-command - Baburam Bhattarai accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." Dahal has even claimed that the foreign powers were hatching a conspiracy to install a military-backed government like in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Repeatedly, Maoists have proved themselves to have mastered the art of crying wolf. But, some reckon that their allegation could possibly hold some semblance of merit this time around.

The element that has provided some weight to the Maoist allegation is the induction of Sujata Koirala (the daughter of the Prime minister) into the cabinet. Ms Koirala was recently appointed as a minister without portfolio. Given her ailing father's dwindling abilities, many reckon that she is taking charge of his portfolios - which happens to include defence. And it is said that her relationship with the Army top brass has warmed up quite a bit in recent times. Apparently, she was also in Delhi at the same time when Gen. Katawal was there. These turn of events added weight to the Maoists’ claim that her lucid preference for constitutional monarchy has resonated well with the Army top brass and a “democratic coup” is in the offing.

But even before the dust settled, Army was again dragged into the limelight. This time, it was about mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative elections. Although the Army has remained tight-lipped over the issue, all divisional commanders were recently called into Headquarters to discuss the issue. As for the political leaders, they have been voicing their preference to mobilize the Army almost on a daily basis.

The Army has become the primary choice for the security provision because it is still the largest and the strongest security apparatus in the country. At a time when the security situation has deteriorated critically and that the other security apparatuses have become utterly debilitated, Army remains the only robust hope for the purpose.

Army's power
Perhaps the main reason why the Army has received so much attention is because of its undeniable power. A recent report, released by the Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG), positions the Army as the most powerful institution in Nepal. There is more than a grain of truth in ICG's assessment. With a total strength of six divisions comprising of 95,000 personnel, the Army is certainly the largest and the most powerful public institution.

The Army derives its power not just from the sheer numbers, but also from the public faith in the institution. According to the most recent nationwide survey titled "Nepal's contemporary situation" conducted by Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen, the Army enjoys the highest public approval rating amongst the primary government institutions (legislative parliament, Cabinet, Civil service, Nepal Police, and Judiciary). Even the NGOs, Civil society, and Human rights activists’ were unable to override Army’s approval ratings.

Another opinion poll conducted by Nepalnews/Nepali Times had yielded similar results. In response to the poll question, "In light of the recent developments what is your opinion of the Nepal Army?”, 79% of the respondents indicated that they held the army in positive light.

The public’s faith on the Army stems mainly from its unfaltering discipline and cohesiveness. Unlike the blatantly brazen violations of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) committed by its signatories, the Army has strictly abided to all its terms and conditions. And the Nepali people have taken notice to this fact. Also, until date, the Army has remained remarkably subservient to the Transitional Governing Authority’s (TGA) authority and staunchly adhered to the constitution. In stark contrast to the fissiparous political parties that have all endured splits at least once in their political history, the Nepal Army has remained intact and very loyal to its chain of command too.

It is also the financial capability that has provided the Army with an additional oomph. Not only does it receive a budget allotment from the government, but it also earns a substantial amount from the UN Peace keeping operations (PKO). As the fifth largest troop contributor, the amount the Nepal Army rakes in from the PKOs is almost equal to the amount it receives from the national budget. One estimate even has it that about thirty percent of the capital circulating in Nepal's financial markets comes from the Army's funds.

But the variable that makes the Army so potent and powerful is undoubtedly its fighting prowess. Despite having fought an onerous insurgency for years, the Army still appears indefatigable. Although some have denigrated the Army for its inability to crush the insurgency, others have credited the institution for preventing a complete military takeover by the rebels. Many political pundits also believe that it was primarily the Army’s unyielding resilience that compelled the rebels to shift their strategic gears and opt for the Delhi compromise.

In the transitional period, analysts reckon that the Army has actually increased its potency. Pointedly, the number of personnel in the Army stands at its peak. Training has been made more frequent and more rigorous. It is even believed that it has greatly strengthened the capability of its special forces which comprises of one airborne battalion and one Ranger battalion.

Even more tellingly, the previously throttled supply of military hardware has resumed. The COAS' recent trips to India and China are believed to have revitalized the military ties. Presumably, COAS’ trips have opened more doors for military hardware procurements. Some Nepali news agencies have even reported sightings of two US Air Force C17 Globemasters, delivering a large consignment arms and ammunition to the Army at Tribhuvan International Airport. In sum, what makes the Army irrefutably powerful is a combination of pubic faith, financial capability and its fighting prowess.

Army's impending role
Today, most eyes rest on the impending role of the Army. Will the Army take the risk of absorbing the rebels? Will it completely severe its conjugal ties with the institution that is attributed for its naissance? Will it be mobilized to provide security for the putative elections? And more importantly, what would happen if it tilted in favour of one political force?

It remains to be seen as to how the Army’s role will play out. But, one thing is unmistakably certain: the Army is greatly perturbed by the rising insecurity and especially alarmed by the eroding state sovereignty. As it considers itself ordained with the task of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is easily discernable why the downward spiral trend has been unsettling.

But more importantly, it has seemingly sensed its inevitable role. It has detected that the burden of cleaning up the political slag will once again be heaped on its shoulders. Either by being mobilized to provide security for the elections or deployed against the anti-establishment elements, it foresees itself springing into action sooner or later.

The Army, however, faces another formidable task as well. For the Army, more challenging than defusing the stray UXOs (unexploded ordinances) and IEDs (improvised explosive devices), will be the task of striking a balance between its historical institutional values and forces of modernity. Since other political forces have harped about the institution's conjugal relationship with the Monarchy, it has had to repeatedly counter these jaundiced outlooks. But by conforming to the universal norms like human rights, democratization and operating under a civilian authority, it is increasingly dispelling most doubts.

At a time when pervasive threats are undermining the existence of the State, however, many believe that it would be foolhardy for the Army to overlook the significance of its entrenched historical values and ties.

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Source: Nepalnews, February 25, 2008

Pragmatism Must Prevail

The much-awaited parley between the government and the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), an alliance of the Terai Madesh Democratic Party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Nepal Sadhbhawana Party (Mahato), failed to yield the expected results the other day. The people who were eagerly waiting for the fruitful outcome of the meeting throughout Friday were once again disappointed when the media reported that the meeting ended inconclusively. The people, badly hit by the indefinite closure called by the UDMF from 13 February and curfews across the Terai, had expected that the meeting would end their woes and pave the path for the constituent assembly elections as they knew well that both sides had done adequate homework before sitting at the table. But it could not happen as there was no agreement on the UDMF�s demand for �one Madhesh, terai, one province�, which is impractical and against the national integrity. With the inconclusive outcome of the meeting, the Nepali people as well as the economy of the country are sure to suffer more. The movement of people and essential goods like fuel and food has already been affected throughout the country by the indefinite bandh. The serpentine queues of vehicles in front of the petrol pumps are a common sight in the valley. Moreover, the failure of the meeting has put the entire peace process at risk as it would be incomplete without holding the CA polls in the absence of peace in the Terai or in any part of the country. This has created some amount of uncertainty. If the seven political parties and the UDMF do not sort out the outstanding issue immediately, there is a danger that the CA polls, the process of which is already underway, might have to be postponed possibly for the third time. Therefore, UDMF should be more serious about the safe and bright future of the country and give up the demand which the present interim government cannot fulfill. It wold be the most logical step in order to free the nation from the present chaotic situation. No one should forget that dialogue is the best weapon to arrive at a solution to any problem. At the same time no one can compromise on national integrity and the wellbeing of the people at large. It is time that flexibility be resorted to in taking the country on the forward looking path in the interest of the people and the country.

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

Strike, Scarcity Linger RJP

Ritu Raj Subedi

Life in the capital city and elsewhere is becoming more difficult with the acute shortage of fuels, increasing load-shedding and skyrocketing prices of essential commodities. Crisis triggered by the short supply of POL products and irregular electricity has triggered other problems: dwindling water in the taps and chaotic transport services. Power cut has hampered the water supply body to pump out groundwater and distribute it. Absence of cooking gas and kerosene has made the condition of housewives pathetic. Travelling in the public transport equally offers one with harrowing experiences. The widespread shortage of everything is a glaring example of the failure of current governance system in the transitional period. Despite this unbearable situation, the public has not revolted against the government. This sense of greater endurance is a testimony of Nepalese for the greater cause of the nation, namely the constituent assembly elections.Legitimacy It is common knowledge that the existing fuel crisis has been unleashed by the Terai bandha that was called less than two months ahead of the CA polls. At this time, any activity that obstructs the polls process can be interpreted as anti-election move. The legitimacy of the incumbent government largely rests on its capacity to hold the elections as scheduled. However, the alarming thing is the demand of the agitating groups to establish a separate Terai province. This disruptive demand must have sent a chill down the spines of the people and forced them to be patient at the time of crisis because no genuine Nepali can accept such a demand. To meet this key demand, the Terai groups are giving continuity to closures across the southern belt crippling general life from east to west. Whatever the outcome of the negotiation between the government and the UDMF, the strike has created doubts over the election. At the same time, the move of UDMF has ironically consolidated the unity of Seven Party Alliance (SPA). The three major parties � Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist �,which are often engaged in squabbling over trifle issues, have evoked a unified and coherent voice in addressing the Terai issues. The chiefs of the three parties have discussed the Terai�s problems and held common stance on the matter. The SPA unity is vital to conduct the polls and subsequently to draft a new constitution. Many have raised eyebrows on the moves of the Front when its leaders defied the government�s call to solve the issue through talks and issued conflicting remarks regarding the election. On one hand they claim the Terai strike has been organised to make the CA polls a success. On the other, they argue the CA polls can�t be held until their demands are met. The contradictory statements have cast doubt over the sincerity of Madhisi leaders in backing the resolve of the nation to hold the polls that will formally abolish monarchy, restructure the state and institutionalise the federalism. Giving a sudden U-turn, Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP), a pro-palace group, decided not to participate in the elections on the pretext of the ongoing Madhesh agitation. The dramatic move by its chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa has taken all by surprise. This has generated questions: Does his step support the ongoing political process or has a negative connotations? Is he a genuine sympathiser of Madhesi people? What did he actually do for the welfare of Madhesis when he was the prime minister several times? He led the governments under the Panchyat system for years that often played pahades against madhesis. Divide and rule was the mantra of the panchayat regime. Thapa was its skilful executer. Known as �a pancha in crisis,� Thapa, in the capacity of the then prime minister, earned notoriety when his government allegedly rigged Nepal�s first referendum in favour of partyless panchayat regime in the late 80s. To this end, But, the move of ex-soft pancha at the crucial hour of Nepalese politics will only help those waiting to fish in troubled waters. ChallengesIf there were any connection between Thapa�s poll boycott and UDMF�s refusal to register its closed list of candidates at the EC office for the proportional election, it will be a wake-up call for the SPA that there are formidable challenges on the path of the CA polls. Amidst the widespread uncertainty, over three dozens political parties have submitted their closed list to the EC. This has certainly aroused the hope that CA polls process will go on as scheduled and meet the key deadlines. Realising the gravity of situation, the EC has extended the period of submitting the closed list by today. By participating in the polls, Madhesh will not lose anything but strengthen its position through the restructuring of the state.

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

SPA, UDMF finally reach deal

KATHMANDU, Feb 25 - The government and the protesting United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) struck a crucial deal Monday morning ending the 12-day Madhes movement and clearing the deck for Constituent Assembly elections slated for April 10.
The two sides reached compromise on the key UDMF demand - One Madhes One Pradesh - which they said would be decided through the Constituent Assembly. They have agreed to form autonomous Madhes state and other autonomous states.
However, both sides were struggling till 3 am Monday on proper words to be mentioned in the draft.
"We have agreed on autonomous Madhes state. But we are still discussing proper words to reflect the desire of Madhesi people regarding the autonomous Madhes state," said Hridayesh Tripathi, a Madhesi leader, who was present during the meeting, held at prime minister's residence, Baluwatar.
The government and UDMF have also agreed to recognize all those killed in the course of the Madhes movement last February as martyrs and provide their families with proper compensation.
They have agreed to amend the Election Commission Act, which provisions that any political party which secures at least 20 percent result or more under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system must prepare an inclusive list of candidates for the proportional electoral system.
"We have agreed to increase the provision from 20 to 30 percent," said Tripathi. The UDMF had demanded that the provision should be increased to 50 percent.
He said the final draft of the agreement will be ready by Monday morning.
Jayaprakash Gupta, coordinator of Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF), a constituent of the UDMF, said, "It is a big setback to tarai movement because the agreement is not constitutionally binding."
He said the government didn't agree to incorporate the issue in the constitution. "The Constituent Assembly will not have legal powers to recognize the tarai as autonomous Madhes state," he said.
He said the government also refused to make group recruitment of Madhesi people in the Nepali Army.
The UDMF had called an indefinite strike in the tarai from February 13 demanding that the government fulfill their six-point demand.
Earlier today, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and Maoist Chairman Prachanda had held a separate meeting at Baluwatar and reiterated their commitment to conduct the CA poll on April 10.
The three leaders had also agreed to persuade UDMF to participate in the CA poll to decide the issue of one Madhes one Pradesh. Following the Baluwatar meeting, UML General Secretary and Maoist Chairman Prachanda held a separate meeting at the UML central office in Balkhu and discussed the issue.
After developments in Kathmandu, the government arranged a helicopter to bring Upendra Yadav, MPRF chairman, from Simara Sunday evening.
Yadav and other Madhesi leaders including UDMF chairman Mahantha Thakur and Sadbhawana Party Chairman Rajendra Mahato held a special meeting at about 11 pm before sitting for a formal meeting with the government at Baluwatar.
Prime Minister Koirala and Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula held negotiation with Madhesi leaders.
Meanwhile, NC leaders Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar and Saratsingh Bhandari have urged the government to settle the Madhes issues soon. In a press statement, jointly issued Sunday, the leaders said the CA poll is not possible without addressing the issues of Madhesi political parties. The leaders, however, are not so clear on the issue of one Madhes, one Pradesh.
Similarly, Rastriya Prajantra Party (RPP), in a separate statement, demanded that the government immediately hold a roundtable to address the issues raised by Madhesi, Tharu and other indigenous leaders.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, February 25, 2008

Mockery Of Democracy

Narayan Prasad Wagle

The new threat to democracy does not come from tyrants as they can be fairly distinguished and removed from power by the people. It comes rather from the political groups that pretend to be democratic and keep sucking on the blood of the people. This is a new trend all over the world. As we could see in Pakistan, Musharaf ruled Pakistan in the guise of democracy, which many Pakistanis detested as a military democracy, and it was clearly manifest in the defeat of his allies in the recent election. The Bhutanese government has begun to exercise pseudo democracy to further strengthen the grip of the royal regime over the freedom loving people. TyrannyNepal, as one of the least developed courtiers of South Asia, has shown symptoms of the same disease. With the fall of the Rana regime in 1951, every succeeding ruler claimed to be democratic. Even the tyrannical Panchayat rulers feigned to be democratic, holding some sort of election periodically. They claimed that the democracy it expounded was in consonance with the soil of Nepal. Fortunately, it was dismantled after almost three decades of rule. With the restoration of democracy in 1990, people hoped that their quality of life would improve in a real democracy. However, it is confined to a closed set of elite people, and the benefits of the so-called democracy could not reach the oppressed, the marginalised and the poor. The political parties used democracy to enjoy power. As a result, the country got bogged down in conflicts.With the hope of changing their status from being victims to the sovereign, people came to the streets and defeated the king's ambition of establishing a dictatorial regime. They came to the streets pursuant to the promises of the political parties and the Maoists to correct past mistakes and renounce violence. Nearly two years have passed since the April uprising. The daily lives of the people have become extremely difficult and painful. Violence continues to be perpetrated in the name of the people. The INSEC year book on human rights reports that violent groups in the Terai killed half a thousand people while the government killed nearly three dozens during the period. The government could not prevent the violation of the basic right of the people to live. Rather it became a part of such violation. This clearly shows that the interests of the political groups are very different from those of the people. Otherwise, how could they kill so many people without much hesitation? The senseless general strikes have been a routine feature of the new Nepal. The sufferings these strikes incur on the people are intolerable. They are virtually made prisoners without access to health care, education and other basic needs. Of course, the political groups have the right to demonstrate peacefully for their cause. But do they have the right to kill people for their benefit? It is crystal clear that a group's demands may be supported by a portion of the population. But how can they violate the rights of all other people? In recent times, people have had little access to such basic needs as cooking gas, petrol and kerosene and services like electricity due to the inefficiency of the government compounded by the blockade and senseless general strikes in violation of the basic norms of humanitarian law. As a consequence, essential services like hospital services have also been affected. People who expected law and order, rule of law, better employment opportunities, a favourable business environment, social justice and stability are being hit hard daily. They are being exploited by the political interest groups, some of which are even more accountable to external powers. Some groups are relying on racialism to further their interests, which is clear from the fact that class is not tied with ethnicity while making provisions for the enlistment of the marginalised people. As we know, it is racism and interests of the great powers that create an unending cycle of violence.Compare these developments with the peace loving people of Nepal with so much religious and ethnic tolerance. Some political groups are hell-bent on destroying the assets of the Nepalese people while bringing down their standards of living. As everyone accepts that democracy is for the people, by the people and of the people, the present scenario of Nepal shows that it is against the people, by the elite and feudals and of racism and great power subservience. This is a mockery of democracy, which is more dangerous than tyranny.Illegitimate interestsTherefore, the responsible political parties must act lawfully to reverse this trend if they really want to consolidate democracy in the land of the Buddha. They must refrain from making it just an instrument to legalise their otherwise illegitimate interests and prevent others from doing so. The immediate step in this regard is to hold the Constituent Assembly election, which is a benchmark of democracy

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

Confused donors

Once a conflict is over, aid agencies seem paralyzed. Instead of sending help, they send study groups. There is often a lag of years before moving from humanitarian relief to real economic development. By the time such help actually arrives, it is often too late: war has been re-ignited," said Jeffrey D Sachs, an influential economist, about post-conflict countries. His perception has become painfully familiar to Nepal. This was the message that came from the two-day Nepal Donor Consultation Meeting that concluded in Kathmandu last Friday. The government expected the aid agencies to fork out substantial amounts of money to boost the economy in the post-conflict scenario, while the donors gave the message that they were unwilling to support economic reconstruction until there was complete political stability and full democracy, from the local to the central levels.
The donors' rebuff seemed to show that they didn't realize that Nepal could not afford to wait in addressing the immediate development and economic challenges to keep the hard-earned peace. What is the use of the aid after the scenario that the donors desire emerges? When there is functional democracy and complete political stability, the government does not need to depend on aid. At that time, the confidence of the private sector will have been high, and their investments can be channeled into reenergizing the economy and creating new jobs. It is right now that the government most urgently needs the support of its development partners to fulfill the people's expectations and aspirations. On the other hand, the donors did not systematically distinguish post-conflict settings as it requires a distinctive approach. They didn't know that it should not be simply development as usual. The donors talked about helping the fragile peace process, but no concrete effort was initiated. It would have been generous and a real support for the peace process if the donors had come up with proposals and assistance to accelerate the pace of development and growth through quick-impact programs.
Look at the ground realities. The adverse economic situation, a painful consequence of the war, is obvious. Capital — physical, human and social — has been destroyed. And Nepal's ability to rebuild itself is limited by weak institutions, scarce human and financial resources and economic fragility. Under these circumstances, financial support from the international community appears to be the only chance for Nepalis, who are dazed and bereft of hope, to mend their lives. The government also has to play its part perfectly. The implementation side should be strengthened. Improving the morale of the private sector, expediting reforms to improve the business environment including the functioning of state mechanisms, greater accountability, transparency and fighting corruption are some things that the government must not overlook. With better policies, better priorities for reform and bigger and better-timed aid, it is possible to restore the post-conflict economy considerably and more rapidly.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, February 25, 2008

Need For Dialogue

The meeting of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) has outright rejected the demand of 'One Madhes: One Province' put forth by the agitating United Democratic Madeshi Front (UDMF), saying that neither the SPA nor the interim government had the authority to fulfill the demand that undermines national sovereignty and integrity. The parley between the SPA and the UDMF remained inconclusive on Friday when the latter continued to stick to its demand for 'One Madhes: One Province'' though the ruling parties agreed to meet all the other demands of the UDMF. All the SPA leaders after much discussion have reached a consensus that the government would accept all the other demands except the impractical one of 'One Madhes: One Province.' When the SPA and the government did not agree to meet one of the six demands, the UDMF leaders have threatened to continue their strike, which has already affected life across the Terai. No doubt, the present government is there only to hold the elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA) so that democracy and peace could be institutionalised in the country. It lacks authority to meet any demand that jeopardises national sovereignty and integrity. When the interim constitution has already declared Nepal a federal republic, it is inappropriate to come up with a demand for a particular province. In fact, Madhes does not belong to the elite Madhesi people, who are now launching the protest and strikes. It is the land of the people who have migrated from the hills, the Tharus, the Dalits, landless squatters and backward people who have been victimised by the people of the so-called high caste people of Madhes. Moreover, the Thraus, the indigenous people of the Terai oppose the demand of the UDMF. Indeed, it is a big irony that Nepal, which was never colonised by any power after its unification, is now in the verge of disintegration due to the inappropriate demands put forth by the different ethnic groups, including the Madhesis. The government and the ruling parties should discourage people from putting such up such demands that push the country towards disintegration. In fact, the government as well as the parties both in power and outside should work in a way to hold the CA polls within the stipulated time so that the people can have a new constitution drafted by their own representatives, which will, in turn, decide the fate of all the Nepali people, not of the people of a particular area.

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

Target: Election

On Saturday, the SPA did the only right thing it could do on the demands for a single state of ‘Madhesh’ and the right to self-determination. It rejected the demands by concluding that neither it nor the government nor the interim parliament had the mandate to decide on such an issue as would impinge profoundly on national integrity. It left the decision, therefore, to the Constituent Assembly, which is slated for election only six weeks away, on April 10. Out of the six demands put forward by the United Madhesi Democratic Forum (UMDF), four could be addressed even before the election, according to SPA leaders. These two demands, they said, could not be met also because these required constitutional and legal changes just ahead of the election. The front’s demand for exemption from the requirement for inclusiveness on proportional representation from the existing 20 per cent to 30 per cent still needed agreement, it was reported.The agitating Tarai groups did not submit their closed lists of candidates under the proportional representation system yesterday too — the date had been re-set specially with a view to enlisting their particiaption in the election, as they had ignored the original day). However, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala yesterday asked the public to rest assuredthat the Tarai crisis would be resolved in a day or two. The nation would applaud any suchbreakthrough so long as it did not compromise or threaten to compromise Nepal’s vital interests, such as its sovereignty and territorial integrity, or maintained the fairness principle in the political processes and a level playing field for all political parties. By these criteria, the two demands — one single Tarai state and self-determination — are out of the question — now and in the future.Even the front’s push for greater non-inclusiveness privilege is an example of the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose approach. While it has sought ‘proportional representation of Madhesis’ in all areas of governance, the front wants itself to be exempted from this need to include others. Other communities in the Tarai seem to be slowly waking up to the dire implications of ‘one Madhes, one state’ and ‘self-determination’. For instance, the Tharus, who are among the original Tarai inhabitants, have staged protests, warning the government against yielding to these ‘separatist’ demands. Nepal has remained a unified nation for about two and a half centuries. While even those countries in Asia that became larger relatively recently through the union of separate states have not granted these rights to their provinces or states, raising these demands in Nepal has naturally raised general suspicion about the protagonists’ motives. Jana Andolan II has provided all the groups with undreamt-of rights and powers, and the approaching CA election aims to institutionalise these gains and provide more. In this context, continuing the agitation, which enters its 13th day today, appears to be directed against the CA election itself. The SPA and the government need to demonstrate that the election takes place on schedule, come what may.

Source: The Himalayan Times, February 25, 2008

Nepal at a crossroads

Joginder Singh

Nepal evokes memories of a country full of beautiful scenery, high mountains and spiritual places. Till recently, the King of Nepal was regarded as god. However, the image of King Gyanendra has taken a beating, thanks to Maoists who have bullied the seven-party alliance into submission. Moreover, neither the King nor his crown prince has done anything to win the hearts of the people. In all fairness to Maoists, they have never hidden their ambition of removing the monarchy from the centrestage of Nepali politics.
Instead of begging and appealing to the King to become a titular head, Maoists went straight for his head. If they have their way in the election scheduled for April 10, the days of the King are numbered. Maoists have been -- and they still are -- in the forefront of a movement to abolish monarchy.
Nepal, one of the few monarchies in Asia and the only Hindu kingdom, has a population of 26.3 million, which is less than the population of Mumbai and Delhi put together. However, it has an area of 147,181 sq km. In Nepal, a landlocked country, tourism is the primary source of income.
During my recent visit to Nepal, I tried to gauge the ground reality in that country. One thing which came out clearly was that people were afraid to express their opinion openly. When pressed the most they would say was that all political leaders are keen to amass wealth for themselves.
In Nepal, petrol and diesel are being sold at Rs 50 per litre; after some time, even their availability will be a problem. Due to strikes, bandhs and non-payment of previous dues to Indian suppliers for petroleum products, 10 litres a day is the petrol sold to cars and five litres to two-wheelers. There was an interesting slogan put in the market in Nepali language, "Petrol chhenna, mitti taail chhenna, paani chhenna, bijli chhenna, sarkar chhenna" (there is no petrol, no kerosene, no water, no electricity and no Government).
There are power cuts in India, but the day I reached Kathmandu the power was off between 7 pm and 12 pm. I was told that we would have electricity between midnight and 5 am, and again between 9 am and 1 pm next day. This would be followed by no electricity between 1 pm and 5 pm and the cycle would continue till further notified.
When one visits Nepal, one is back to the candle age even in the best hotels. You need candles in the bathroom, in your living room and even dressing room. Normally, it is considered stylish to have a candlelight dinner. But it is not comfortable to live for eight hours in the hotel with candles lighting your room.
Due to political uncertainty, along with lack of basic facilities like water supply and electricity, many foreign companies are treating Nepal as a punishment posting. No wonder hardly any new industry has been set up in that country; worse, even the present ones are facing difficulties in their functioning. The first annual report of the RNA Human Rights Cell, 2006, has recorded 10,725 abductions and 72 killings by Maoists during the past six months of the year. It has also recorded 65 cases of explosion, 40 cases of extortion and looting and 30 cases of threats issued by Maoists. More than 12,000 civilians, Maoists and security personnel have been killed in that country since the rebels began their 'people's war' in 1996.
India, mostly for wrong reasons, occupies the front page of Nepal's media. The kidney scam king, Amit Kumar, who was recently arrested in Nepal, hogged the limelight in that country. On his arrest, Nepal Police recovered Euro 145,00, $ 18,900 and a bank draft of Rs 936,000. He was also guilty of possessing foreign currency -- the amount recovered from him was above the ceiling prescribed under Nepal's laws. Had he been convicted, he would have got up to 10 years of imprisonment and a fine of Rs 2 lakh. But at India's request, he was deported to New Delhi.
Today, Nepal stands at a crossroads. This strife-ridden nation is all set to implement a new 'deal' worked out between the current interim Government and Maoists. One of the conditions for arriving at the understanding is to abolish Nepal's more than 200-year-old monarchy after the election to the new Constituent Assembly is held on April 10. In the election, the electorate will also decide whether Nepal will become a democratic republic or retain ceremonial monarchy.
So far Prime Minister GP Koirala is the only SPA leader who has openly expressed his support for ceremonial monarchy. But now in the interest of peace, he has agreed to its abolition after the Constituent Assembly election. Most people in Nepal, however, will be happy to see King Gyanendra go, but not the monarchy.
Maoists may sweep the election as their writ runs in rural Nepal. Most people will vote for them to avoid any reprisals. The handful supporters of retention of constitutional monarchy will not be able to stem the anti-monarchy drive of Maoists. Of course, what Nepal does with monarchy is its internal matter, but a friendly Government in our neighbourhood is in our interest.
Bordering China and India, Nepal offers a geo-political advantage to any country that is influential there. Though one does not foresee any major conflict in the near future, India feels that the military capability of China will increase if it gets a foothold there. Also, we have to be respectful of the sentiment of the people of Nepal.
Winston Churchill once observed: "The monarchy is extraordinarily useful. When Britain wins a battle it shouts, 'God save the Queen'; when it loses, it votes down the Prime Minister." Only the future will indicate whether Churchill's statement is relevant to Nepal or not.

Source: The Pioneer, February 25, 2008

Two suspicious of polls

Yubaraj Ghimire

As the countdown for the April 10 election to the constituent assembly begins, the most powerful leaders are busy distorting the main intent of the whole exercise. The election, deferred twice in the past, is meant to elect the constituent assembly that will chart out Nepal’s future constitution as well as the model of government that people will elect through another election later.
But Kathmandu’s walls are painted red with graffiti by Maoist cadres saying ‘let us elect Prachanda as the first President of the Republic of Nepal’. Prachanda, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), himself has stated that he will be president now at 55 and remain there for another 20 years during which Nepal will transform into one of the developed countries in the world. But the hidden message is simple: that once he is in power, Nepal will usher in a one-party authoritarian rule where change of government through the ballot will be impossible. After all, the CPN-M has also made it clear that their role model is Kim Jong II of North Korea.
Pitted against Prachanda is the octogenarian G.P. Koirala, the interim prime minister who is also discharging duties of the head of state, with King Gyanendra in a state of suspension. Koirala, in fact, began behaving like a king soon after Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called him a ‘legendary leader’ of South Asia, ignoring Koirala’s vices — mainly corruption.
When the interim constitution said the prime minister will also discharge responsibilities of the head of state, it was not meant to make him into an all-powerful dictator, but simply to get him to do jobs like accepting the credentials of ambassadors, something the king had been doing earlier. Koirala, however, went beyond that expectation. He literally curtailed the king’s right to religion even as in the individual domain and began acting like a ‘Hindu monarch’ during major Hindu festivals. He ignored the fact that Nepal’s revived parliament had made it a secular state from a Hindu kingdom, and that the head of state or government was no more expected to associate with one or the other religion. But he couldn’t resist the temptation to be like the king. In his personal life, he has avoided observing any Hindu rituals, even when his parents died long ago and his two sisters-in-law died within a year recently.
Politically also, he wants to introduce the Koirala dynasty in the politics of Nepal. He recently inducted his only daughter, Sujata Koirala, as a minister without portfolio in the cabinet. He never concealed his wish to make her prime minister — preferably when he is still alive — despite the fact that Sujata is one of the most controversial personalities in the Congress party, sometimes, a synonym of corruption. Interestingly, Koirala’s daughter has stated time and again that she is in favour of monarchy being retained in one or the other form. Her party has however, adopted a pro-republic position during its last general convention.
In a party with a monolithic leadership, Koirala has been able to give a message that like the all-powerful king, he or his daughter are above the party discipline and norm. That’s why no one from the party has so far questioned or demanded action against his daughter. There is speculation that should the April 10 election be called off like it has been twice in the past, given the prevailing law and order situation, Koirala knows that his days are over, along with that of the present coalition arrangement. As radical Maoists are sure to try to capture power through the gun once again, Sujata hopes to rally monarchist and democratic forces around her, with her father loaning his residual support base of the Congress party to her.
In fact, there is a visible amount of deceit and dishonesty both in what Koirala and Prachanda have been doing —both are taking a pro-election position, although, both know elections do not suit their ambitions. Moreover, with acute shortage of fuel and total dislocation of essential services in the country — that has triggered mass anger against the present government — Koirala knows his fate if elections are held. Prachanda has already given too many excuses to call them off by letting loose his supporters on political opponents, and by painting the campaign as a poll for a future president.

Source: The Indian Express, February 21, 2008

Terai turmoil may delay Nepal polls

NEW DELHI: The uncertainty surrounding Nepalese Constituent Assembly elections continues with prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala refusing to meet one of the key demands put forward by Madhesi leaders for a separate province in the Terai region. Amid fears that the elections — scheduled to be held on April 10 — could be postponed again, Mr Koirala, after two rounds of discussions with the Madhesi leaders, has announced that he would not accept the demand for a Madhesi province, one of the six demands put forward by the Madhesi leaders. Mr Koirala said this would affect Nepal’s sovereignty and integrity. Madhesi leaders have said they would continue their general strike until their six-point demands are met. In this scenario, it would be difficult for the government to hold elections. At the same time, Nepal watchers say that a postponement of poll is also likely to suit certain sections of the political dispensation. The Maoists would be satisfied with the continuation of the current political arrangement and could even use the Madhesi issue to push for a postponement of the elections. Nepal experts say Maoists fear that they could get marginalised in the elections and their agenda subverted by other parties, particularly the Terai regional parties. They are currently deemed to be unpopular with the people, and of the 83 seats that they acquired in the Nepali Parliament they might not be able to retain even half, political watchers there say. The Maoists have also not completely integrated into the mainstream and continue to foster a militia of new recruits. “The elections depend on the Terai situation. In the Terai region political parties have to some extent lost their base to the Madhesi regional parties,” said Paul Soren, junior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. Madhesis have long been marginalised in Nepal and have had no political voice. A section of the Nepali Congress, which has traditionally been strong in Terai, is also against elections being held. They are not sure about how they would fare in the elections in other areas. And a small, almost negligible, section within the CPN (ULM) also wants the polls to be postponed. However, the concerned parties are wary of coming out in the open as people want elections. The government is also under pressure from the international community to hold elections on time. India sees the Constituent Assembly elections as a fundamental next step, and feels that the democratic process will lose legitimacy if it is postponed again. New Delhi has been urging Kathmandu to resolve the Madhesi issue through dialogue. Political calculations aside, Nepal watchers point out that the Koirala government would find it increasingly difficult to hold elections with one-third of the country agitating. “There is a real problem quite apart from whatever might be political calculation. From the point of view of the administration, how do you hold an elections with one third of the country in revolt. It’s not just political compulsion,” said professor P R Chari, research professor at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. He added: “I’m convinced you can’t hold elections (if the Madhesi issue is not resolved). It is physically impossible, elections require peaceful conditions.” But another postponement would also affect the credibility of the political parties in the eyes of the people of Nepal, and arrest Nepal’s march towards full democracy.

Source: The Economic Times, February 18, 2008

Ethnic unrest threatens Nepal elections

KATHMANDU (Reuters) - Nepal must address the demands for autonomy of its ethnic Madheshi people or risk more violence and another postponement of twice-delayed elections, the leader of a Madheshi group said on Monday.
Violent protests in the Terai, or Madhesh, region in Nepal's southern plains have clouded a peace deal between the government and former Maoist rebels, which ended the Maoists' decade-long rebellion against the monarchy in 2006.
At least 45 people have been killed in violent street protests in the past year. But Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has vowed to press ahead with the elections in April, Nepal's first national vote since 1999, despite the crisis.
"If it goes ahead with elections by force, the Terai problem will take a different course," Upendra Yadav, chief of the Madheshi People's Rights Forum, which organised most of last year's protests, told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"Armed groups will get a space to play and a secessionist movement could develop."
Many Madheshis want the region, which is home to nearly half of the country's 26 million people, to become a largely autonomous state within Nepal, and want a greater say in the running of the central government.
"If this is not done elections in the Terai are not possible," Yadav told Reuters. "The government does not want to resolve the problem and it wants to continue to suppress the Madheshi people."
Nepal is due to vote for a constituent assembly on April 10. The assembly is expected to prepare a new constitution, make laws and formally declare an end to nearly 240-year-old monarchy.
Since the Maoist rebellion ended in 2006, more than two dozen rebel groups have begun a low-intensity insurgency in the Terai.
Analysts say the government must act quickly and engage the Madheshis before the situation slips out of control. But Yadav ruled out an early meeting.
"Protesters are being shot and killed," he said. "How can we hold talks in this atmosphere?"
On Sunday, police shot at Madheshi protesters in the southwestern town of Nepalgunj as the crowd pelted them with stones.
Police said one demonstrator was killed and dozens of others were injured, the first fatal incident since an indefinite Madheshi strike began last week.
Schools, shops and factories have been forced to close, while oil supplies have been disrupted.

Source: Reuters India, February 18, 2008

Nepal’s Green Party not to contest CA election

We are not brave enough to contest the forthcoming election to the constituent assembly as we know we will be dubbed as royalists and thrashed by the cadres of the so-called big seven parties of Nepal, if we venture into the election campaign.
The founder president of the Green Party Nepal, Mr. Kuber Sharma said this at a press conference cum lavish cocktail dinner hosted by the party on Monday.
The Green Party Nepal is the splinter of the Nepali Congress Party formed almost a decade back succumbing to extreme Koirala hegemony in the NC camp. Mr. Sharma himself served the Nepali Congress as a Parliamentarian in the early democratic years. He got elected from his home constituency from Saptari district.
Mr. Sharma however, said that his party was not shying away from the CA election but it was a life saving formula for his party candidates.
"We are not ready to commit a suicide", Sharma further said.
“What difference will it make even if we win the election…in a country where non-elected representatives rein supreme over the others, thus there is no point in forwarding our candidacy for the CA poll?”, he continued.
I am not as brave as Prachanda- the Maoists chairman, to declare myself the first president of the republic of Nepal, Mr. Sharma further said.
Making public the views of his party on the ongoing Terai crisis, Mr. Sharma said the Terai agitation has no future at all.
Few miscreants are enough to make the environment nasty; resorting to peaceful means can however, ensure broader participation of the Madhesis in the State Structure, Mr. Sharma said.
On the issue of possible India links in Nepal’s Terai crisis, Mr. Sharma said that India may not dare to split this country as it might boomerang on it ultimately.
“India itself is primarily a troubled nation; the fresh ethnic cleansing campaign in the state of Maharastra is a proof of that, the voice of dissension coming as it does from the northern states of India are all but a sign that India itself is in sheer trouble”, Mr. Sharma added.
Follows the Press Release issued by the Green Party Nepal on 17 February, 08.
“The old order changed yielding place to new” wrote Alfred Tennyson, the English poet about two hundred years back. Nothing could be truer. Our people too have been — struggling for a change. And a couple of years back came a great change but the politicians who grabbed power could not rise up to the occasion. Their self oriented policies, their unbridled ambition to stay in power sine die, their authoritarian behavior and intense intolerance of the opposition, their naked corruption, their insensitive and inhuman attempts towards the demolition of our national heritages, culture and religion have impelled us — the Green Nepal Party to raise our voices against such behavior and appeal to our aggrieved patriotic sisters and brothers of our country to join us to save our dear motherland from dishonor and destruction. The acute shortage of power, the petroleum products ,even drinking water, skyrocketing prices of daily necessaries, the total absence of law and order, the chukka jams and bandh, the continuous loots, murders, extortions and abduction have not only made life of the common man most unsafe and miserable but turned it into absolute hell. The violent insurgency by the proponents of racialism, federalism amid regionalism has weakened the solid structure of our national unity. In these circumstances no sane Nepali will risk life to go to polling booth to cast the vote. Even before the nominations are filed the big parties are disturbing the election campaign of other parties. Big parties are using their muscle and money power on the one hand and talking about sharing of seats among themselves on the other. For that reason our party is demanding dissolution of interim parliament and Government and to form a neutral Government to conduct free, fair and impartial election. The interim government has not been able to govern. The village and district development committees are not able to carry out development works. The Country is trapped in economic crisis. In view of the increasing risk to the lives of voters and candidates our party will not participate in the election. Despite the absolute imperativeness of elections to the constituent assembly it is impossible to hold the election on 10th April, 2008 in such a chaotic situation. Moreover, the servile behavior of our statesmen has turned our proud nation into a vassal state of our big neighbor in the south and this has got to be corrected at the earliest. As such we all must join hands to change the government. I trust you all will not hesitate to come forward immediately to defend the sanctity and sovereignty of our dear country. Finally we must say that we remain strongly committed to continue our peaceful campaign in favor of Multi-party Democracy, clean politics and clean environment.

Source: Telegraph Nepal, February 17, 2008

Breakfast in Nepal, lunch in India, daily

The border between India and Nepal is more than 1,750 kilometres long. For most of its length, you can walk across for dinner, and go back for the night and breakfast — completely unchallenged by anybody.
Last December, a clutch of young Maoists from Nepal crossed over into India in Bihar and planted their party flags, staking a claim to the area. Again, they were not challenged — on either side of the border. That’s how easy it is to cross this border.
But a breakfast or dinner is the last thing on the minds of millions of people who cross this border every day. And many of them are criminals like the kidney racket kingpin Amit Kumar. Or terrorists.
India has 7,000 km of seacoast, and shares 14,000 km of land borders with six countries. Portions of the land frontiers are fenced and impossible to breach. But the rest are invitingly porous for those who want to cross over.
Terrorists use Nepal to stage operations in India. Northeast militants are headquartered across the border in Bangladesh. Many evade arrest in India by simply slipping into Myanmar. Smugglers, of course, thrive.
And then there is the border with Pakistan which could be anything from porous to ant-proof depending on where you are. While the border in Punjab is fenced and electrified, it’s open in Rajasthan and in parts of Jammu & Kashmir.
Hindustan Times reporters take a fresh look at these borders, at the people on either side, the security arrangement — or the lack of it, in a series of reports from the frontier towns and villages.
In the first of this series, Manish Tiwari writes about how the security forces are fighting a losing battle on the Indo-Nepal border in Bihar. “It has become a dangerous place to live in,” a resident of the area told Tiwari.

Source: Hindustan Times, February 17, 2008

Nepal: The Coming April Crisis, and India’s Role

Sharply contending parties in Nepal agreed to have the future of the country contested in a elections for a constituent assembly. This has given rise to huge debate within Nepal, and among its people, over what kind of future to have, what kind of state and social system. Various forces (including the pro-Indian Nepalese Congress party NC) have repeatedly postponed and impeded those elections — leading the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to point out that the future can also be settled by other means. There are (as several commentators note) two undefeated armies in Nepal — one belonging to the government, the other led by the Maoists. Currently the elections are scheduled for April — and there is great tension over whether they will be sabotaged again, and (if so) what will follow. India is accused of helping torpedo the elections by stirring up secessionist forces in the Terai, the strategic agricultural border area in southern Nepal. Possibilities include renewed Maoist armed uprising, broad mass protests, a crackdown by the Nepalese military, continued stalemated crisis and possibly an invasion by the powerful nearby Indian army — or various combination of these things. A piece from the Nepal Times follows.

Plan A…. India Doesn’t Seem to Have a Plan B on Nepal
by PRASHANT JHA in NEW DELHI (India’s Capital), Nepal Times: Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:39 am (PST)
New Delhi is confused and frustrated about continued uncertainty over elections in Nepal.
Nepal watchers here are convinced that missing the deadline yet again will mark the collapse of the peace process. They say they are working on politicians in Kathmandu to get their act together, but admit their leverage is limited.

An exasperated official told Nepali Times : “We can’t do much if Kathmandu’s myopic political class doesn’t want elections. They will create new excuses, and this time the excuse seems to be the Madhes.”
Indian agencies are said to be in touch with all Madhesi groups, but deny India is instigating trouble in the Tarai. “Why would we want to prolong instability and bloodshed in the Madhes when its first negative fallout is on our own side in Bihar and UP?” asked one official.

Delhi has alerted the Bihar authorities about the presence of Madhesi militants, but officials say without more engagement from Kathmandu it is unlikely that Patna will step up the heat on the extremists.
The policy thrust now is for a quick fix on the Madhes to enable polls to go ahead. It is a difficult balancing act of backing the larger process while maintaining influence over Madhesi groups. India is happy with the unity and alliance of Madhesi groups and the distilled six point demands.
“The government must sincerely reach out to the Madhes, and Madhesi groups shouldn’t allow themselves to be used as a pretext to cancel polls. They should consolidate and get votes,” said a senior diplomat, summing up Indian policy.

India is also keen on an understanding between the NC and Madhesi groups to strengthen ‘democratic forces’ so they can stand up to the Maoists. On her recent visit to Delhi, sources said US ambassador Nancy Powell warned her interlocutors that the Maoists were bullying their way through the process. There is concern here that the Maoists will use the YCL to intimidate voters and rig elections.
India doesn’t seem to have a neat Plan B in case elections do not happen. But one top policymaker told us, “We don’t even want to think of that scenario…it will be like a civil war.”
Meanwhile, the king is lobbying hard in Delhi to retain the monarchy. Son-in-law Raj Bahadur Singh was in town this week meeting the BJP’s Rajnath Singh and Jaswant Singh, among others. The message is that the Maoists plan a power grab, and only the monarchy can counter it. The royals were pleased about BJP prime ministerial candidate L K Advani launching a blistering critique of India’s Nepal policy last week.
Nepal is high on New Delhi’s agenda these days. Minister for External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee personally tracks Nepal and speaks regularly with Prime Minister Koirala. The visit to Kathmandu this week by senior Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Verappa Moily is described here as testimony to the importance Sonia Gandhi attaches to the situation in Nepal.

Source: Nepal Times, February 16, 2008

Crisis continuum

S D Muni

No one disputes the fact that the fate of Nepal's peace process hinges precariously on the election to the Constituent Assembly scheduled for April 10, 2008. While the Government leaders continue to promise that free and fair election would be held, the ground reality is not at all encouraging. Even the Election Commission has expressed serious reservations regarding the security situation, particularly in the Terai region. If the election is again postponed, all the interim arrangements -- the Government, Parliament and the Interim Constitution -- would lose credibility. The disruptive forces, trying to sabotage the election will get emboldened and the prevailing non-governance will get worse. The international community which has put very high stakes in facilitating Nepal's smooth transition will get alienated, further complicating the prospects of peace and stability in Nepal.

The challenge to smooth election come from three sources: The Madhes agitation (Terai region), the monarch and the Maoists. The recently emerged United Madhes Democratic Front (UMDF), headed by Mahanta Thakur, is agitating for the acceptance of their six demands before they can participate in the CA election. The Government has accepted federalism and assured representation to Madhes in administration, including the Army.

But what has been conceded falls far short of the expectations. Though there is scope for further accommodation, it is virtually impossible to concede all the demands before the election. The questions of autonomy and self-determination are linked with similar demands raised by other groups. The demand for the full electoral representation to Madhes cannot be met without redrawing constituencies and that means indefinite delay in election. The continuing agitation of the Madhes parties is not allowing smooth campaign in the Terai to the ruling coalition.

There are violent and unruly groups outside the UMDF which have not been reined in by the Government. Some of them are even demanding secession. On the whole, the situation in the Terai is chaotic, violent and insecure. Elections can be held only with the use of heavy force, which will neither be credible, in the absence of Madhes participation, nor free and fair.

While, Madhesis' fear that they will not get their demands met adequately after the CA election, the monarch fears that he will lose whatever he has as soon as an elected CA comes into being. Non-governance of the ruling coalition, tension among the allies and turmoil in the Terai have combined to encourage the King to "break his silence" and debunk the interim Parliament's decision to declare Nepal a "Republic". The opinion polls show greater acceptance of the monarchy, not necessarily him as the King. Through funding of the Terai and ethnic agitations and sporadic violence, King Gyanendra is trying his best to get the election atmosphere vitiated. His cronies in various ruling parties, including the Maoists and the Madhes agitating groups, along with the traditional royalist parties, are all helping him in his agenda.

The Maoists had got the November 2007 election postponed under the fear that they would be marginalised. They have overcome those fears, collected adequate funds, united the scattered Left groups under their banner and also regained some support among the ethnic groups. They have also been hobnobbing with the erstwhile royalists. The party organisation has been geared to face the election and Maoist leader Prachanda has even spelt out his ambitions to be the first President of the 'Republic of Nepal'. The problem with the Maoists, however, is their persisting resort to strong arm methods through their Youth Communist League (YCL) cadre and their refusal to vacate captured property. Other political parties fear that the Maoists will rig the election through YCL wherever possible.

The hurdles in the way to smooth election can be easily overcome if the Government has a firm resolve. The ruling coalition parties, particularly the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Communists (United Marxists Leninists), are locked in an internecine power struggle, trying to outwit each other. Inherently insecure of the outcome, each of them want to ensure that election yields power to them. They have decided to launch a united campaign in favour of free and fair election but without any real zeal or enthusiasm.

In such a situation, hope lies only with civil society groups and the international community. The civil society groups need to reactivate themselves to the level they did during the Jan Andolan-II. The international community, by all indications, is seriously pushing the Government towards a credible CA election. India has even encouraged its political parties to visit Nepal to boost morale. There are, however, allegations that sections in India, both within and outside the Government, are conniving with the Terai agitating groups as well as the royalists to derail Nepal's peace process. The possibility cannot be ruled out that isolated mavericks in the Indian establishment are cultivating the Terai card to ward off the eventuality of the Maoists emerging as dominant players in Nepal.

Source: The Pioneer, February 16, 2008

Prachanda's dream and the stuff of kings will not mix

C K Lal

On February the 13th, Maoists celebrated the 13th anniversary of the armed rebellion in Kathmandu with the pageantry befitting a proletarian party seeking to establish a "people's republic". Presumably, such a state will be patterned after North Korea, the sole surviving model of a Maoist republic in the world. Under the benign gaze of Chairman Prachanda, Nepal will then probably begin building better presidential palaces than the gawky Narayanhiti or jinxed Diyalo Bangla constructed by kings. The Maoists will be careful not to emulate the official residence of the prime minister at Baluwatar, reputed to have been intentionally designed by royal astrologers and architects with a flawed feng shui to ensure that its occupant never serves a full term.Unfortunately for Comrade Dahal, nobody in Kathmandu takes his presidential dreams too seriously. The buzz in town is that royal representatives have succeeded in persuading the Indian establishment about the necessity of keeping some form of kingship in Nepal. The delegation of ruling Congress (I) from New Delhi scoffed at all such rumours, but there was no mistaking the body language of Digvijay Singh, a former jagirdar himself, who is believed to be a close confidante of the Uncrowned Empress of India — Sonia Gandhi.StrangleholdImmediately upon his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport, still named after the grand-father of suspended king Gyanendra, Diggy Raja pointedly told the media that the success of the peace process depended upon everyone faithfully implementing past agreements. What we don't know is that the Sujata Koirala model of cultural monarchy may have been a part of the quadrilateral deal between mainstream parties, Maoists, monarchists and their Indian mediators in New Delhi. If that was so, the future of Constituent Assembly(CA) elections rescheduled for April 10 is probably still uncertain.Speaking at an interaction early this week, Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai urged royalists not to obstruct the polls. His party will have to do more than that to ensure that the elections are held at all. There is no way entrenched interest groups will let an election happen that is sure to dismantle their stranglehold over Nepali society and the state.Royalty"If the King is nationalist, he should help in smooth conduct of the election," Bhattarai reportedly told the audience. BP Koirala had said something similar prior to the referendum in 1980. Events proved how naïve he had been by not learning from history. In the past, almost every hereditary ruler of Nepal, at least since the time of Jang Bahadur, has bowed and scraped before imperial agents in Calcutta and New Delhi to protect their privileges and keep all possible challengers in check. Kings and princes are pragmatic people; they know that nationalism is for the rabble, not for nobles.Gyanendra knows that had Indians not backed his grandfather, he would have been the king in 1950s. He also knows that almost every Rana prime minister and their progenies had to find shelter in India once their time was up. Clearly on the instigation of someone else, Gyanendra overplayed his hand with February 1, 2005 power grab. But that doesn't mean that he hadn't kept his channels of communication with the Indian establishment open. It seems CA elections are impossible unless some space for the suspended king is found in the new scheme of things to come.The idea of the "Baby King" floated by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is a non-starter. Egyptians tried that with King Ahmad Fu'ad, aged 7 months. The baby reigned for less than a year and became the last monarch to ascend the Egyptian throne. With Hridayendra, son of Crown Prince Paras, as Baby King, royalists will have no use for the likes of Girija or Sujata in Baluwatar. At best, they will be politely asked to leave the country, on health grounds of course.The concept of cultural monarchy holds better promise. Long after privy purses of ex-royals were abolished, the Maharaja of Mysore and King of Tehri Garhwal still preside over colourful Dusshera processions. When a young Chogyal was "crowned" in Sikkim, all legislators of the tiny state of India dutifully lined up to offer him khada. In tribal societies, chieftains fulfil an emotional need of identifying oneself with real or imagined glories of the past. Perhaps this is what Herbert Spencer had in mind when he opined that removing monarchy is like snatching the favourite toy from a shrieking child.There are models of rulers without realm. Dalai Lama presides over the Tibetan community spread all over the world. The Syedna is the spiritual leader of all Bohra Muslims with power and prestige worthy of a king. Prince Aga Khan is the hereditary Imam of all Ismaili Muslims. Most Rajputs still defer to the Maharana of Udaipur even though he is just another hotelier in Rajasthan. It's probably possible to have a mention of something like "Emperor of Nepali Jati" or "Gorkhali Samrat" in the interim constitution and give him — or her — the status equivalent to a minister of state. His or Her Majesty can then continue to do business and pay taxes like everyone else. People will be happy to greet them on temple doors and Buddhist stupas.FacilitatorUnless something is done quick time, the D-day of CA elections will turn out to be a mirage once again. The list of political bigwigs doubting elections is impressive. The challenger to Koirala's prime ministerial throne in Nepali Congress party is ex-premier Sher Bahadur Deuba. This is what he says, "The elections cannot be held in the current fragile security situation." Shekhar Koirala, the octogenarian prime minister's nephew, concurs, "As the securitysituation is deteriorating, holding the polls is impossible." Home Minister Krishna Prasad Situala warns that the country will get into a deeper crisis if elections are not held on schedule. Prachanda threatens to launch a stir if polls are once again scuttled. Who are these worthies talking to? They need to be part of the solution rather than add to the mounting problems of Prime Minister Koirala.The last agreement between warring parties of Nepal was reputed to have been facilitated by Sitaram Yechury. Probably the new agreement will require the initiative of Rajnath Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party, an outfit that has been backed by kings of Nepal since its Jan Sangh days. The Royal Palace in Kathmandu is eagerly waiting for the arrival of a BJP team in the country.The writer is a commentator and columnist based in Kathmandu.

Source: Mail Today, February 16, 2008

A Dangerous Hurry

Bhaskar Roy

If their role models are any indication, Nepal's Maoists seem to be moving swiftly to install a regime based on terror in our neighbourhood. Nepal's Maoists, or the Communist Party of Nepal -- CPN(M) -- appear to be in a tearing hurry to establish an iron grip on the country's Government, Parliament and other institutions through threats, muscle power, forced indoctrination and a "second revolution" if they are not allowed their way. It should be of serious concern that the Maoists propose to celebrate the birthdays of Kim Il-Sung, known as the 'Great Leader' of North Korea, his son and the current dictator Kim Jong-IL, known as the "Dear leader" and even North Korea's national day.

It would be quite understandable if Prachanda and his Cabal demanded only the stopping of observing the Nepal King's birthday as a national holiday. That is already happening, anyway. It would have been more encouraging if the Maoist leaders adopted some of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping's policies of moving forward. Equally, if not more important, Deng worked forcefully to rid China of the personality cult.

North Korea, or as it calls itself the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), never had any democracy and the people have been rendered utterly poverty-stricken, almost Zombies, with no voice whatsoever. On a walk through the streets of Pyongyang one can see posh restaurants with glass doors, stores stocked with food, but not a soul inside them. These are shows for the few foreigners who get a visa to enter Pyongyang. The displayed food go to the most senior cadres.

The elementary indoctrination book used by the CPN(M) in their schools and for the slave labourers has big pictures of Prachanda. Mao Zedong's Red Book had only Mao's photograph. In North Korea, the only photographs are those of the "Great Leader" and the "Dear Leader".

Mao kept one moderate leader with him, to try and repair some of the most critical damages wrecked upon the state by his Red Guards and the "Gang of Four". This man was Premier Zhou Enlai. Since Zhou never coveted the top position and remained personally loyal to Mao, he remained safe. Even then, Mao spied on Zhou to ensure that he was not being betrayed. Mao, the 'Great Helmsman' needed somebody on his side permanently.

Who is Prachanda's Sancho Panza? The party ideologue, Baburam Bhattarai, is seem to be performing Zhou Enlai role for Prachanda. But Bhattarai is not half as astute as the wily Zhou. There have been rifts between Prachanda and Bhattarai, some reported to be serious. This would suggest Prachanda is not as powerful as Mao and that Baburam has his own power group within the party.

Mao Zedong was a preceptor of the Maoist, especially Prachanda. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), however, dismisses any connection with the Nepalese Maoists and have only declared the CPN(M) adoption of the adjunct "Maoist" is not accepted by Beijing. Though the Madhav Nepal-led CPN(UML) is China's closest fraternal party in Nepal, Beijing has not desisted from engaging the top Maoist leadership.

What would be most uncomfortable to China is the CPN(M)'s apparent open admiration of the North Korean dictatorship. To the CCP, the CPN(M) is trying to swim against the stream, inkling towards Pyongyang's Korean Worker's Party (KWP). China's relationship with North Korea is no longer the old "lips to teeth" relationship. It is only strategic compulsions that forces Beijing's support to North Korea.

The movement against King Gyanendra, which ultimately led to the abolition of the monarchy, should in itself be a lesson for megalomaniac politicians. Gyanendra came to the throne through a yet unexplained massacre of the royal family allegedly by the heir apparent to the throne. He quickly showed his driving greed for absolute power, but was brought down by his people. One wrong decision to yoke the people destroyed a 200-year-old proud dynasty.

The Maoists have been recently accused of transgressing the 23-point agreement. The Nepal Congress vice-president and Minister, Ramchandra Poudel, has pointed to the violent methods still adopted by the Maoists. Former Prime Minister and NC leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and other senior leaders have accused the Maoists and their youth arm, the Young Communist League (YCL), of atrocities that could put the scheduled April 10 Constituent Assembly (CA) polls in jeopardy. In fact, the largest Left party, the NCP (UML), which made moves to establish some common cause with the Maoists, are having second thoughts.

Prachanda has yet to make any serious move to return the confiscated property of civillians. If this is being done in the name of Communism then such land and immovable property should have been distributed among the poor and landless peasants long ago. Instead the Maoist cadres continue to enjoy their properties like warlords. Given the track record of the Maoists, it does not appear that their demand to have their fighting cadres absorbed in the Nepalese Army is out of an intent to accommodate the PLA into proper working engagements. There are other motives, perhaps. The then United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has set a formula for absorption of a part of the PLA in the Nepalese Army. The rest are to be paid a stipend of Rs 3,000 a month till alternative employment is found for them. This has not satisfied Prachanda and his comrades.

The Maoist leadership may be trying to sell the idea that Mao's "long marchers" subsequently became China's official Army after the success of their revolution. But there are crucial differences. China's millet-and-rifle soldiers commanded by officers who were mostly trained in the Soviet Union. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was a disciplined force, and their commanders were real military strategists of whom many professional armies in the world would be proud of. They did not get absorbed into any other army after liberation.

The most shocking practice of the Maoists are their "Labour Camps". Here poor people imprisoned are mad to work like slaves, with no pay and no freedom. They are also imparted forced indoctrination. The Prachanda Red Book is compulsory in some Maoist controlled schools.
Is Prachanda also trying to run a Gulag? While trying to camouflage his intentions periodically, he makes no secret of his willingness to repeat in Nepal some of the worst crimes committed on humanity by Communist regimes elsewhere.

Source: The Pioneer, February 16, 2008

Can Nepal's Rebels Help Rebuild?

Ishaan Tharoor/Chitwan

Comrade Sandhya's voice trembles as she speaks of her father. "He was a major in the Royal Nepalese Army," she begins, cupping her chin with one hand while rearranging a neat schoolgirl plait with the other. "When he found out I had gone underground, he said I was no longer his daughter — only his enemy. The next time he wanted to meet me was on the battlefield."

That encounter, to Sandhya's relief, never came to pass. In 1996, as a 14-year-old student from a town north of the capital Kathmandu, she joined Nepal's Maoist cadres at the moment when their armed insurgency had just begun to take hold of this rugged Himalayan nation, long a magnet for foreign backpackers and adventurers. Her father's military income meant Sandhya did not grow up among the country's many poor, but she chafed under the rigid caste laws and gender norms that blunted her parents' ambitions and stripped her of the same opportunities as men. The Maoists, led by their talismanic leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a.k.a. Prachanda, promised her and thousands of others nothing less than a complete reordering of society, and Sandhya gave herself to the struggle, fighting as a soldier in a decade-long civil war that claimed over 13,000 lives and displaced countless more.

Today, Sandhya sits batting away mosquitoes in a sparse wood cabin, part of a sprawling Maoist cantonment in the southern district of Chitwan. She believes victory is at hand. A peace process triggered by mass protests in April 2006 against the autocratic rule of Nepal's King Gyanendra brought the Maoists into the political mainstream, paving the way for the extraordinary transformation of a country ruled for two and a half centuries by Hindu kings into a secular republic. Both the Royal Nepalese Army and the Maoist guerrillas — the civil war's bitter foes — returned to their barracks and camps with the stated intention of eventually reforming into one new national force. "We all want democracy. No one here wants to fight again," Sandhya insists. Even her father, who has since retired, has reconciled with Sandhya. "He respects my decisions now," she says. "He realized I was a figure of change."

Change can bring uncertainty, however, not just for Nepal but for other countries. Nepal, a country of 28 million, is sandwiched between the world's rising giants, India and China, who both have cast their eye over the Himalayan nation as a buffer against the other. Any unrest in Nepal — hostilities have been suspended, not buried — could spill across into its restive borderlands, particularly Chinese Tibet and the troubled Indian state of Bihar — developments that Beijing and New Delhi would view with alarm. Nepal's Maoists, moreover, are still on the U.S. State Department's list of terror groups. They have traded their guerrilla hideouts for plush offices in the capital, but had a fearsome reputation for committing violence when the armed struggle raged.

Indeed, the hatreds that fueled the civil war threaten even now to bubble over. Elections for an assembly that would draft Nepal's new republican constitution are slated for April 10, but only after much bickering and dithering. Nepalis of all stripes are losing faith in the seven parties, including the Maoists, that make up the country's feuding interim government and see corruption and cynical power-politicking stifling the nation's slow reconstruction from the ashes of war. Over a third of the population still lives below the poverty line.

As the politicians fiddle in Kathmandu, a hundred mutinies burn around the country: vigilante gangs run rampant in the countryside, while ethnic groups long marginalized under the monarchy have taken to armed uprising, especially in the southern lowlands of the Tarai where over 40% of Nepal's population lives. A cocktail of anarchist elements, militant factions and a growing separatist movement hold sway there and prove a daunting challenge with elections coming in little more than two months. "What happened in Kenya could happen here," says Jayaraj Acharya, a former Nepalese ambassador to the U.N., speaking of the ongoing ethnic conflict in the African nation triggered by disputed elections, which has claimed hundreds of lives. "Only here," Acharya adds, "it will be worse."

A False Dawn

The security situation in a nepal under cease-fire is dismal. During the civil war, both the Maoists and the Royal Nepalese Army held brutal sway over segments of the country, but now, as they wait in their camps, law and order has deteriorated. Reports filter in every week of kidnappings for ransom. Last December, a Swiss trekker was beaten up after refusing to pay money to a few rogue Maoists, a worrying sign for a country heavily reliant on the money brought in by foreign tourists. Many in Kathmandu blame the Youth Communist League (YCL), created by the Maoists less than a year ago, for much of the disorder. Red YCL banners around parts of Kathmandu urge Nepalis to report "suspicious, reactionary activity" to cell-phone numbers emblazoned on the cloth. As soon as night falls in the capital — which, as a bastion for the King's army, had been safe during all of the years of the civil war — the usually teeming streets grow deserted. "The police have no motivation at all right now," complains Kanak Dixit, editor of Himal magazine and an outspoken advocate of democracy. "There is an alarming surge in crime."

Public safety isn't the only challenge the interim government has failed to negotiate. Fiscal mismanagement has led to chronic fuel shortages across the country; lines in Kathmandu extend for kilometers and prices have tripled in less than half a year. Last week, protests against rising fuel prices shut down the capital. Kathmandu residents face at least six hours of power cuts a day. The government has been unable to raise Nepal's middling growth rate, which hovers around 2%, and funds many of its programs on an IV drip of foreign aid. Trade-union activism and general strikes, some suspect spurred in part by the YCL, disrupt factories in outlying areas and basic services in the cities. During Christmastime around Kathmandu, sanitation workers had been agitating for over three months. Piles of garbage festered around every cobblestoned corner of the city, visceral reminders of a deeper rot seeping into the nation.

"We live in a broken state," says Mandira Sharma, a leading human-rights activist. For the past five years, she and her NGO, Advocacy Forum, have investigated hundreds of cases of disappearances that took place during the decade-long civil war. To Sharma, both the Maoists and the Nepal Army are guilty of a catalog of atrocities, from forced recruitment to extrajudicial killings. Attaining justice for the victims (and compensation for the nearly 200,000 displaced) ought to be as important to the country's push toward democracy as elections. "But human rights don't seem to be anyone's priorities here," she laments. "The problem is a failure of political leadership."

Elections for a Constituent Assembly, which have thus far been canceled twice, became the focal point of political squabbling. The first date, June 17 last year, was missed for mostly logistical reasons. Nepal simply wasn't ready at the time to hold a fair and efficient poll. But the Maoists scuppered the next date, November 22, much to the chagrin of many Nepalis as well as the international community. Reneging on earlier understandings, the Maoist leadership grandstanded on a set of demands that included the outright abolition of the monarchy before its fate could be determined by popular referendum. When the other parties — including the establishment Nepali Congress, the party of the country's current Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala — refused to accede to the Maoist agenda, the Maoists pulled out of the government and plunged the peace process into a rancorous impasse.

"It showed how unnatural the alliance is between all the interests in the interim government," says Kamal Thapa, a royalist politician who served as Home Minister under Gyanendra. Up till last year, the Congress Party had always defended the idea of constitutional monarchy, a commitment enshrined by their party following similar protests in 1990 that curbed royal power. But the need to assuage the Maoists changed the equation. "The Congress has had to understand the new political reality," says C.P. Gajurel, a top Maoist politician, "and it has been difficult for them."

The Maoists see themselves as the agents of democracy in Nepal, stifled by the objections of reactionary, status-quo forces, while many in the Congress, let alone in factions aligned still to the ancien régime of the monarchy, doubt the radical guerrillas' commitment to any political scenario where they may not retain complete control. Despite a compromise thrashed out at the end of last year, which set elections for this April, observers expect conflict to be inevitable. "What more must we give the Maoists?" asks R.S. Mahat, Nepal's Finance Minister and a Congress Party member. "Their strategy is simply to create crisis. They are not honest."

This distrust speaks volumes of Nepal's present predicament, where parties spar over everything from the distribution of ministries to the appointment of ambassadors. "There is no genuine consensus at all," says Rhoderick Chalmers, Nepal expert for the International Crisis Group. Continued discord only strengthens the hand of the weakened King. Though the throne has lost much of its credibility under Gyanendra, many Nepalis still look to the institution as a source of stability and unity. "You can't legislate away the emotional link of the people," says Thapa. Others, including journalist Dixit, fear further squabbling and political anarchy could lead to a more ominous "right-wing backlash ... where royalist elements in the army would step in on the pretext of stability." Further heightening tensions, Prachanda, the Maoist leader, made noises as recently as November about returning the people's war to the jungle if progress toward a republic wasn't made. "Either through [the Maoists] or through the army," warns royalist Thapa, "we are going to see some sort of authoritarian solution."

The End of Kings

The threat of a coup may be exaggerated, but it points to perhaps the single greatest achievement of the Maoist insurgency: the unraveling of a national myth. Nepal came into being through the 1768 military campaign of King Prithvi Narayan Shah and his army drawn from Gurkha tribes in the hills near Kathmandu. Ever since, Nepal's polity has remained largely unchanged: its borders an approximation of the land conquered, its political élites tied to old families close to both the monarchy and the army, and its princely rulers all descended from the same messianic line. Power and legitimacy radiated outward from the palaces of Kathmandu into a highly hierarchical society in the countryside, where feudal mores and caste discrimination still hold sway. Propped up first by the British, keen to have a client buffer to the north of its imperial heart, and later India, this arrangement rarely had to fear outside interference and had remained roughly intact for more than two centuries.

Nepal's monarchy hammered the nail in its own coffin in spectacular fashion in 2001, when Crown Prince Dipendra gunned down 10 members of the royal family, including the much beloved King Birendra, and then allegedly shot himself. The attack, clouded by conflicting reports and conspiracy theories, sent shock waves around the world and plunged Nepal into existential crisis. With a centuries-old dynasty virtually eliminated overnight, in stepped the reigning King's brother, Gyanendra. As the Maoist insurgency raged, Gyanendra declared a state of emergency in 2005, arresting mainstream political leaders and assuming absolute power. But he could not quash the Maoists, whose influence grew apace in rural areas around the country. Rumors swirled depicting Gyanendra as a man given to superstition and mysticism, who would sooner look to the stars or a coterie of tantric priests for counsel than his political advisers. "He wanted control, he wanted to be a heroic savior," says a source close to the court, "but he had few actual ideas, if any."

Gyanendra's power play worked to the advantage of the Maoists. Their urban cadres and activists played a prominent part in the 19 days of mass demonstrations in April 2006 that ended King Gyanendra's absolute rule and led to the reconvening of parliament. The surge of popular goodwill at the time catapulted the guerrillas out of their jungle redoubts and into the international limelight. Prachanda, whose very existence had been in doubt only a few years before, appeared on televisions regionwide, saluting crowds and pressing the flesh. A King had been toppled, a war ended, and change in Nepal looked very much on the way.

The Way Forward

Little has gone according to script since the people-power protests 22 months ago. In November 2006, the Maoists committed to a peace accord with other prominent pro-democracy parties in Nepal and joined the new interim government that would rule until elections for a Constituent Assembly could take place. But the acrimonious squabbling that followed has dispelled many of the hopes raised by the success of the mass demonstrations. "We just felt so proud being Nepali then," says Sanjog Rai, a college student in Kathmandu. "The protests showed us how united we were and that feeling of brotherhood gave us real hope for a better future. Now we're stuck with politicians who have no vision and only care about keeping power."

There is a broad consensus among Nepal's strife-worn people that parliamentary democracy must come sooner rather than later. "A functioning government can't be in a permanent state of transition," says Bojraj Pokhrel, chief of Nepal's Electoral Commission. Now, Pokhrel will have to manage a staff of over 230,000 election workers spread across the mountainous country, some in polling stations miles away from local roads. Highways and bridges were routinely bombed during the civil war, making transportation in a nation with woeful infrastructure difficult at the best of the times. Still, Pokhrel is confident Nepal has the means to carry the elections out. "The people are all hungry for this," he says.

But they'll remain disappointed as long as the interim government's leaders fail to forge any meaningful political unity. "It's a testing time for them," says Acharya, the former ambassador to the U.N. "One wonders if they'll prove their statesmanship." The only indication that they will, most observers drily point out, is that neither the Maoists nor the Congress Party have any better alternative other than sorting out their differences and calming the many fractious forces that might undermine April's polls.

If they don't, the international community must do more to safeguard elections and move the peace process forward. Nepal's giant neighbors, India and China, both backed the monarchy during the civil war, supplying it with weapons and aid. India, which has close ties with virtually every faction in Nepal, eventually shepherded the peace process along, forcing the main political parties to come to terms with the Maoists. China has remained a bit more circumspect, letting India flex its geopolitical muscle while building bridges with the Nepali Maoists it shunned until not long ago and beefing up its hydropower investments along Nepal's glacial rivers. As the budding superpowers expand in influence and ambition, many see Nepal falling into the crosshairs of a new "Great Game" for the 21st century.

Beyond the turmoil and political intrigue looms the very real chance that Nepal might join the region's sorry list of failing states — populated already by Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Besides forging alliances and staging elections, the country and its politicians need to steel themselves for the thorny task of drafting a constitution that reconciles its feuding factions and enfranchises all its kaleidoscope of ethnic groups. "This is a crisis hundreds of years in the making," says S.D. Muni, a Nepal scholar formerly at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. "Whole groups have never been in the political structure. You have to in effect create a new Nepal."

Back in Sandhya's Chitwan camp, the commander, named Biwidh, clings to such hope. From a poor, indigenous-minority family, he speaks urgently of peace and of the need for a competitive, multiparty democracy. A slight man with a scarred, weathered face, Biwidh looks much older than his 34 years, and describes his time spent warring in the jungle with primitive rifles and stones in hushed, quick breaths, as if he would rather forget about it. As Nepal lurches from one crisis to another, Biwidh says the soldiers in his camp are in a permanent state of readiness. "If the revolution must be fought again," he sighs, turning his head to the setting sun, "it will be."
— with reporting by Yubaraj Ghimire and Santosh Shah/Kathmandu

Source: Time Magazine, January 31, 2008