Crisis continuum
S D Muni
No one disputes the fact that the fate of Nepal's peace process hinges precariously on the election to the Constituent Assembly scheduled for April 10, 2008. While the Government leaders continue to promise that free and fair election would be held, the ground reality is not at all encouraging. Even the Election Commission has expressed serious reservations regarding the security situation, particularly in the Terai region. If the election is again postponed, all the interim arrangements -- the Government, Parliament and the Interim Constitution -- would lose credibility. The disruptive forces, trying to sabotage the election will get emboldened and the prevailing non-governance will get worse. The international community which has put very high stakes in facilitating Nepal's smooth transition will get alienated, further complicating the prospects of peace and stability in Nepal.
The challenge to smooth election come from three sources: The Madhes agitation (Terai region), the monarch and the Maoists. The recently emerged United Madhes Democratic Front (UMDF), headed by Mahanta Thakur, is agitating for the acceptance of their six demands before they can participate in the CA election. The Government has accepted federalism and assured representation to Madhes in administration, including the Army.
But what has been conceded falls far short of the expectations. Though there is scope for further accommodation, it is virtually impossible to concede all the demands before the election. The questions of autonomy and self-determination are linked with similar demands raised by other groups. The demand for the full electoral representation to Madhes cannot be met without redrawing constituencies and that means indefinite delay in election. The continuing agitation of the Madhes parties is not allowing smooth campaign in the Terai to the ruling coalition.
There are violent and unruly groups outside the UMDF which have not been reined in by the Government. Some of them are even demanding secession. On the whole, the situation in the Terai is chaotic, violent and insecure. Elections can be held only with the use of heavy force, which will neither be credible, in the absence of Madhes participation, nor free and fair.
While, Madhesis' fear that they will not get their demands met adequately after the CA election, the monarch fears that he will lose whatever he has as soon as an elected CA comes into being. Non-governance of the ruling coalition, tension among the allies and turmoil in the Terai have combined to encourage the King to "break his silence" and debunk the interim Parliament's decision to declare Nepal a "Republic". The opinion polls show greater acceptance of the monarchy, not necessarily him as the King. Through funding of the Terai and ethnic agitations and sporadic violence, King Gyanendra is trying his best to get the election atmosphere vitiated. His cronies in various ruling parties, including the Maoists and the Madhes agitating groups, along with the traditional royalist parties, are all helping him in his agenda.
The Maoists had got the November 2007 election postponed under the fear that they would be marginalised. They have overcome those fears, collected adequate funds, united the scattered Left groups under their banner and also regained some support among the ethnic groups. They have also been hobnobbing with the erstwhile royalists. The party organisation has been geared to face the election and Maoist leader Prachanda has even spelt out his ambitions to be the first President of the 'Republic of Nepal'. The problem with the Maoists, however, is their persisting resort to strong arm methods through their Youth Communist League (YCL) cadre and their refusal to vacate captured property. Other political parties fear that the Maoists will rig the election through YCL wherever possible.
The hurdles in the way to smooth election can be easily overcome if the Government has a firm resolve. The ruling coalition parties, particularly the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Communists (United Marxists Leninists), are locked in an internecine power struggle, trying to outwit each other. Inherently insecure of the outcome, each of them want to ensure that election yields power to them. They have decided to launch a united campaign in favour of free and fair election but without any real zeal or enthusiasm.
In such a situation, hope lies only with civil society groups and the international community. The civil society groups need to reactivate themselves to the level they did during the Jan Andolan-II. The international community, by all indications, is seriously pushing the Government towards a credible CA election. India has even encouraged its political parties to visit Nepal to boost morale. There are, however, allegations that sections in India, both within and outside the Government, are conniving with the Terai agitating groups as well as the royalists to derail Nepal's peace process. The possibility cannot be ruled out that isolated mavericks in the Indian establishment are cultivating the Terai card to ward off the eventuality of the Maoists emerging as dominant players in Nepal.
The challenge to smooth election come from three sources: The Madhes agitation (Terai region), the monarch and the Maoists. The recently emerged United Madhes Democratic Front (UMDF), headed by Mahanta Thakur, is agitating for the acceptance of their six demands before they can participate in the CA election. The Government has accepted federalism and assured representation to Madhes in administration, including the Army.
But what has been conceded falls far short of the expectations. Though there is scope for further accommodation, it is virtually impossible to concede all the demands before the election. The questions of autonomy and self-determination are linked with similar demands raised by other groups. The demand for the full electoral representation to Madhes cannot be met without redrawing constituencies and that means indefinite delay in election. The continuing agitation of the Madhes parties is not allowing smooth campaign in the Terai to the ruling coalition.
There are violent and unruly groups outside the UMDF which have not been reined in by the Government. Some of them are even demanding secession. On the whole, the situation in the Terai is chaotic, violent and insecure. Elections can be held only with the use of heavy force, which will neither be credible, in the absence of Madhes participation, nor free and fair.
While, Madhesis' fear that they will not get their demands met adequately after the CA election, the monarch fears that he will lose whatever he has as soon as an elected CA comes into being. Non-governance of the ruling coalition, tension among the allies and turmoil in the Terai have combined to encourage the King to "break his silence" and debunk the interim Parliament's decision to declare Nepal a "Republic". The opinion polls show greater acceptance of the monarchy, not necessarily him as the King. Through funding of the Terai and ethnic agitations and sporadic violence, King Gyanendra is trying his best to get the election atmosphere vitiated. His cronies in various ruling parties, including the Maoists and the Madhes agitating groups, along with the traditional royalist parties, are all helping him in his agenda.
The Maoists had got the November 2007 election postponed under the fear that they would be marginalised. They have overcome those fears, collected adequate funds, united the scattered Left groups under their banner and also regained some support among the ethnic groups. They have also been hobnobbing with the erstwhile royalists. The party organisation has been geared to face the election and Maoist leader Prachanda has even spelt out his ambitions to be the first President of the 'Republic of Nepal'. The problem with the Maoists, however, is their persisting resort to strong arm methods through their Youth Communist League (YCL) cadre and their refusal to vacate captured property. Other political parties fear that the Maoists will rig the election through YCL wherever possible.
The hurdles in the way to smooth election can be easily overcome if the Government has a firm resolve. The ruling coalition parties, particularly the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Communists (United Marxists Leninists), are locked in an internecine power struggle, trying to outwit each other. Inherently insecure of the outcome, each of them want to ensure that election yields power to them. They have decided to launch a united campaign in favour of free and fair election but without any real zeal or enthusiasm.
In such a situation, hope lies only with civil society groups and the international community. The civil society groups need to reactivate themselves to the level they did during the Jan Andolan-II. The international community, by all indications, is seriously pushing the Government towards a credible CA election. India has even encouraged its political parties to visit Nepal to boost morale. There are, however, allegations that sections in India, both within and outside the Government, are conniving with the Terai agitating groups as well as the royalists to derail Nepal's peace process. The possibility cannot be ruled out that isolated mavericks in the Indian establishment are cultivating the Terai card to ward off the eventuality of the Maoists emerging as dominant players in Nepal.
Source: The Pioneer, February 16, 2008
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