India caught in a ring of fire

Dhruba Adhikary

KATHMANDU - Reflecting growing anxiety in New Delhi about ongoing conflicts in the neighborhood, a leading Indian publication, India Today, led its May 28 edition with a cover report headlined "Neighbors on fire". Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal are four countries covered by the magazine. Although they are very much part of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the publication has conspicuously left out three countries: Afghanistan, Bhutan and Maldives. Perhaps New Delhi thinks these three can't afford to antagonize the rulers of India.

Political instability of an unprecedented kind has gripped the South Asia region, and the reasons for this range from armed insurgency to communal animosity and political obduracy thereof. Fears are being expressed that rapidly unfolding events and trends might place the basic principle of - and popular faith in - democracy at risk. Does India, the world's largest democracy, stand to gain from such a scenario? How will it be useful to India, not very far from China, to watch transparent political systems turning into opaque regimes in countries in its vicinity? Anyhow, when its immediate neighborhood is on fire, what should be India's reaction?

New Delhi, of course, could take some pleasure if it were discreetly assisting those responsible for setting the fires in the neighborhood. The other alternative, as the publication suggests, is to start worrying about the fallout for South Asia, where India is a dominant power. "India must ensure," said Aroon Purie, the chief editor of India Today, "that it plays a part in making sure its neighbors are able to put out their fires." In other words, India should help neighbors to help themselves - confine its role to that of a facilitator. It should play the role of mother India, not that of a big brother. But it seems unlikely the Indian establishment will do this, and New Delhi is sensitive whenever issues in public debate involve the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Defense.

This is explained in a book, Making News, published in 2006. In a chapter contributed by Rajdeep Sardesai, a noted television journalist, there is a description of how journalists who do not want to toe the official line have to run the risk of being called anti-nationals. He tells how journalists are expected to "follow hook, line and sinker what the ministry is saying". Unlike other issues, matters involving foreign relations are not regularly discussed in Parliament. Officials find it expedient to convince their political masters that it is beneficial to keep issues in the domain of external relations and diplomacy secret, in effect taking the agenda away from the public on whose behalf the government is expected to be working. This is what India is today, decades after renowned American scholar John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006) said India was a functioning anarchy. (He also served as US envoy in New Delhi under president John F Kennedy.)

India Today has culled the opinions of experts criticizing the authorities for "ad hoc-ism". One is Brahma Chellaney, a strategic analyst, who said, "It is odd that Delhi does not have a clear neighborhood policy." It means that India has conducted its relations in the neighborhood in a haphazard manner without any coordinated, clear-cut policy since it ceased be a British colony in 1947. These include the wars with Pakistan, the clash with China, support to the movement to "liberate" Bangladesh, the annexation of Sikkim, and the landing of Indian troops in Sri Lanka to protect the Tamil population. And, in a more recent case, pitting Maoists, democratic parties and the monarchy against one other - thereby destabilizing Nepal. Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon admitted, in front of a New Delhi audience on April 10, that South Asia "remains one of the least integrated regions in the world".

Should not India, the largest country in the region - and currently the chair of the SAARC - do some introspection where its measures have failed to create a conducive atmosphere to build "interdependencies", as Menon alluded to in his speech at the Observer Research Foundation? There is a need for dispassionate study to find out why India's relations with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal have remained less than cordial. Surely, India alone cannot be right and others all wrong. As has been pointed out by experts - and tacitly admitted by authorities - New Delhi is working without a policy on its neighborhood. It ostensibly is guided by assumptions, presumptions, perceptions and intelligence reports that are inherently flawed because of preconceived motivations. Menon, as quoted by India Today, said diplomacy "is to get other people to do what I want but get them to think that I am doing what they want".

Since Menon is the head of India's diplomatic service, it would be fair to assume that the country's envoys - be they in South Asian capitals or elsewhere - perform their roles on this basis. This leads one to consider what Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee in Kathmandu - and in the border town of Birgunj - has been doing. In earlier times, the Maoist leadership waging a war against the Nepali government was led to a believe that Delhi was acting for their benefit. Once the Maoists decided to join mainstream politics and become a part of Parliament as well as the government, Indian diplomats found it expedient to entice one or two breakaway Maoist factions and extend them support, on the basis of which they have launched a separatist movement in the southern plains called Terai. One of the leaders at the forefront of this "Madhesi" movement, Upendra Yadav, is a Maoist renegade who in 2004 was arrested on Indian territory with two of his comrades.

New Delhi quietly handed over the two to Nepali authorities but set Yadav free while he was still in Indian territory. There is a widely held perception that Yadav, who physically resembles the people of the nearby (to Nepal) Indian state of Bihar, is being used to sustain a hate campaign against Nepalis of "hills" origin. This is presumed to be based on an Indian interpretation that most Maoists are of "hills" origin, and that by getting them evicted from the plains India can keep its porous borders safe and also prevent the Maoist movement from spreading to adjoining Indian states. Clearly, it is an attempt to create a buffer within a buffer - which is Nepal. It is becoming clear that Yadav is being groomed to take a role akin to that of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran's in Sri Lanka.

If Prabhakaran can obtain Indian support for his fight for a separate Tamil state, Yadav's expectations for similar support from New Delhi for a "Madheshland" look logical. Some analysts tend to see these initiatives as an example of the double standards that India has applied for decades, citing military repression in Kashmir, the northeast and elsewhere to quell separatist movements. The Indian stand on the Maoists has been inconsistent. When the Indian Foreign Office was led by Jaswant Singh, New Delhi labeled the Maoists as terrorists. Later, it reversed this approach and started to assist them, despite their violent methods. More than 13,000 lives have been lost in the decade-long insurgency that began in 1996.

Yet New Delhi was instrumental in making them a party to a 12-point agreement with the Nepali Congress-led front of seven political parties. One agreement led to another, and eventually the Maoists fully joined the constitutional process, finally becoming a part of the interim government on April 1 this year. But now India sees them as a deadly menace, a sort of Frankenstein's monster. But the stinging question is: Who supported them so that they could be where they are now? The Maoists have ambition, as is evident from this observation of top Maoist leader Pushpa Kamala Dahal, aka Prachanda, reproduced in the May 18 report of the International Crisis Group: "Even if we are a small country in South Asia, we think our revolution can have impact all over the world."

Prachanda stresses the "great" experiment Nepal is about to undertake, saying that the country will be a beacon of hope for the rest of the world. Communism may have died elsewhere, and the Shinning Path movement in Peru isn't there to provide them inspiration any longer, but Nepali Maoists claim that they have become a force to be reckoned with. In a broader context, Indian is jittery over possible Chinese inroads into Nepal through the Maoists; here the interests of New Delhi and Washington converge. That the United States and India consult on Nepal has been made public by their officials on numerous occasions. In response to a US Congress committee query on March 22, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice conceded that "our closest international partner in working on affairs in Nepal is India".

She also described Nepal's conditions as "somewhat tenuous", at the same praising her ambassador, James Francis Moriarty, for his performance in Nepal. Rice's remarks serve as an indicator that Moriarty and his Indian counterpart Mukherjee are working in tandem. Their frequency of visits, conducted separately, to the residence of interim Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala create enough room for conjecture that the external influence on crucial decisions he makes is pervasive.

Apparently, Delhi has argued with Washington as well as with countries in the European Union that they should remain in touch with the Indians whenever the West intends to make substantive offers to Nepal. The reason: it is India that has to face the resulting consequences, pick up the pieces. Moriarty and Mukherjee could, if they wanted, have met Koirala and the chief of the Nepal Army, General Rookmangud Katawal, at the same time. Analysts say Mukherjee wants to protect himself from embarrassment because the government in India is based on a coalition to which communist parties provide important support.

This leaves the task of condemning Maoist violence to Moriarty, who receives condemnation for being the meddlesome ambassador of an "imperialist power". Maoist leaders no longer publicly denounce India, which used to be seen as an "expansionist power". (In private conversations, the Maoists, like any other political leaders, resent New Delhi's growing interference in Nepali politics.) In the words of analyst Upendra Gautam, the Americans' approach to issues is usually direct and straightforward - they say what they accept and what they reject. The Indian style is different, and it is often difficult to fathom what New Delhi means or wants.

"There is a visible lack of sincerity as well," Gautam said, referring to the usual Indian hesitation in implementing various agreements on trade, transit and water resources with Nepal. Gautam also agreed with those who think that while the Indians and Americans may be working jointly to contain China, India often goes further and goads the US to do things for which it has to face public anger. One recent incident in eastern Nepal provides an example. Outside a Bhutanese refugee camp, Moriarty faced a stone-throwing crowd he had gone to meet to make an offer for resettlement of about 60,000 refugees. Mukherjee, on the other hand, has not encountered any hostility, although it is his country, India, which has assisted the Bhutanese royal regime in evicting the more than 100,000 Nepali-speaking Bhutanese nationals who have taken shelter in United Nations-run camps since the early 1990s. (The diplomatic corps in Kathmandu issued a statement last weekend expressing concern for the safety of diplomats accredited to Nepal.)

A news report published in The Australian newspaper on April 12 said the central plank of India's impatience and concern stems from a perception that the Chinese influence on Nepal is on the rise - not only through the Maoists, who have joined the government, but also by China's reported interest to extend its Tibetan railway to Nepal. Since India enjoys a close and improved relationship with China, especially after Beijing recognized Sikkim as a part of India, there is apparently no ground for New Delhi to be over-sensitive. Meanwhile, Nepal remains politically unstable as interim government leaders and feuding political parties work overtime to find a date for proposed November elections for a constitution-making assembly.

There are rumors that New Delhi is contemplating sending in troops, as it did in Sri Lanka in the 1980s. Speculation also includes a possible bid to dispatch Indian soldiers under UN command. But there are hurdles. How will, for instance, the 50,000-plus Nepalis currently employed by the Indian Army react when they know that their motherland is being invaded by Indian forces? Observers mention such aspects to discount fears of direct military intervention by India, also because the mission to Sri Lanka turned out to be a fiasco (and led to the assassination of prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991). The other important deterrent is China, which obviously does not want to see undesirable activities in a country bordering Tibet.

Beijing's concerns of instability in Nepal may not be found in the daily media, but it would be wrong to presume that the Chinese are indifferent toward happenings in the vicinity of Tibet. Unlike India, China does not take too much interest in who comes to power in Nepal; its policy has been to deal with whoever has been accepted by the people of Nepal. In the past, China maintained contacts with the monarchy; since April 2006 it has worked with first the caretaker and then the interim government headed by Koirala. In a concomitant gesture, China changed its ambassador after Nepal's interim constitution in effect suspended King Gyanendra by way of transferring his official responsibilities to the prime minister.

By directing its new ambassador, Zheng Xianglin, to present his credentials to Koirala (April 19), Beijing issued a pithy message that its past linkage with the monarchy was not a permanent one, or that it would go against the wishes of the Nepali people. Zheng became the first ambassador accredited to Nepal to break the tradition of seeking an audience with the king for the said purpose.In addition, Beijing has invited Koirala to pay an official visit to China, this is likely to be next month. Meanwhile, a number of delegations, including official ones, have arrived from China in the past few months. And a senior member in the Maoist hierarchy, Barshaman Pun (aka Ananta), has been to China twice in the past six months. Media reports said in recent weeks that if approached by Nepal, China could make arrangements for a limited supply of petroleum products for Nepali consumers who have to date been fully dependent on supplies from India. Some of these developments seem to have set off jitters in New Delhi, prompting it to look for alternatives.

What could these be? First, India has to develop an integrated foreign policy for the neighborhood with a specific pledge to support democratic processes in all countries. Second, it needs to stop getting involved in internal political competitions, and develop friendly and transparent relations with governments elected by the people. Third, it could lift all restrictions on trade and transit facilities and begin treating neighbors on the basis of equality and respect. By taking such measures, India would win the goodwill required to project itself as a genuine regional power. This is preferable to entertaining the idea of coups to install "friendly" regimes.

Source: Asia Times, June 6, 2007

Achievements Of Last SAARC Summit

Sharad K. Shrestha

THE 14th SAARC Summit was held in New Delhi, India on April 3 ? 4, 2007. The Heads of State and Governments of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka took part in the Fourteenth SAARC Summit. The Heads of State or Government welcomed the entry of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan into SAARC. They reiterated their commitment to the principles and objectives noted in the SAARC Charter. It was agreed to build a partnership for prosperity and work towards shared economic cooperation, regional prosperity, a better life for the South Asian people and equitable distribution of benefits and opportunities of integration among the peoples and the nations.

Objectives

To meet the objectives enshrined in the Charter, first better connectivity within South Asia is vital and then with the remaining nations of the world. It was agreed to improve intra?regional connectivity, mainly physical, economic and people to people connectivity. Agreement was also there for the vision of a South Asian community having smooth flow of goods, services, peoples, technologies, knowledge, capital, culture and ideas in the region. It was recognized that the remarkable rise in economy of SAARC nations has created new opportunities to face poverty with great effort. There is a wide range of homegrown best practices and innovative solutions for transforming the lives of peoples in South Asia. It was decided to earmark one rural community as SAARC village in each Member State to showcase these innovative models of development in order to further replicate these across the region.Recognition was made on the implementation of the Social Charter with due attention. The National Coordination Committees (NCCS) were directed to formulate concrete programs and projects to complement national implementation efforts. The Heads of State or Government underscored that civil society organizations have an important role to play in driving forward the implementation of the Social Charter and directed the NCCS to mobilize these organizations for the achievement of this end. They praised the Independent South Asian Commission on Poverty Alleviation (ISACPA) for its elaboration of the SAARC Development Goals (SDGS). These goals reflect the regional determination for making quick progress towards achieving the Millenium Development Goals (MDGS). They also agreed that the national plans for poverty alleviation should appropriately mirror the regional concept in the form of the SDGS and the Plan of action on Poverty Alleviation. The two ? tier Mechanism on Poverty Alleviation was entrusted to monitor the progress and fine tune the approaches towards pro? poor growth process. The plus points of an Integrated Multi modal transport system was recognized in the region.

SAARC must move from declaratory to implementation phase for collaborative concrete and effective projects. The SAARC Development Fund (SDF) is an important pillar for bringing concrete benefits to the people of the region. Focus is made on the consistency of decision making and working of the fund with the charter. Priority is required for the early identification and implementation of regional and sub?regional projects under this fund. Early implementation of the recommendations of the second SAARC Energy Ministers' Meeting is required to enhance regional cooperation. Concerted efforts should be made to implement various initiatives under the SAARC Plan of Action on Environment due to the continued degradation of environment. Deep concern should be made over global climate change and the consequent rise in sea level and its impact on the lives and livelihoods in the region. It was agreed to commission a team of regional experts to identify collective actions in this matter. Agreement was made to take measures to facilitate rationalization of telecom tariff on a reciprocal basis. It was also agreed that national and regional telecom infrastructure should be upgraded to boost people to people connectivity in the region.Focus was made on the need for ensuring effective market access through smooth implementation of trade liberalization program. The SAFTA bodies were directed to review the progress on a regular basis. SAFTA should be implemented in letter and spirit. Its successful implementation will prove as catalyst to other areas of regional economic cooperation. To realize its full potential, SAFTA should integrate trade in services. A finalization of an agreement in the services sector should be made at the earliest. The agreement on Investment Promotion and Protection is also required to be finalized.

A comprehensive agreement on harmonizing customs procedures should be finalized. The SAARC Standards Coordination Board would function as a precursor to the SAARC Regional Standards Body. The framework of cooperation on financial issues in the region was finalized. People ? to ? people contact is a key constituent in regional connectivity. Annual SAARC festivals for cultural exchanges should be institutionalized. Scholarship Scheme in ICT and related areas need to be instituted. The South Asian University would be established in India through the signing of intergovernmental agreement. Intergovernmental Steering Committee would be set up at the earliest to complete its tasks related to the Charter, by Laws, rules and regulations curriculum development, business plans and other issues. On educational matters, cooperation and dialogue would be strengthened. Regional projects should focus on women and children related issues. Women's empowerment should be a major objective of regional cooperation. Countries of South Asia must work together to deal with the challenges of poverty, disease, natural disasters and to monsoon for the region's prosperity. The SAARC Food Bank will supplement national efforts to provide food security to the people of nations of South Asia. South Asian Agriculture must benefit from collaborative efforts within and among SAARC nations in developing an effective agriculture research, extension and farmers' linkages and exchanges of farm technology.

While urging continued efforts to combat terrorism, the Heads of State or Government also called for urgent conclusion of a comprehensive convention on International Terrorism. It was agreed to work on the modalities to implement the provisions of the existing SAARC conventions to combat terrorism, narcotics and psychotropic substances, trafficking in women and children and other trans ? national crimes. India took initiative to prepare a draft of SAARC convention on mutual assistance in criminal matters and Sri Lanka offered to hold a meeting of legal advisors to examine the idea of a draft convention, before the second meeting of SAARC Interior/Home Ministers scheduled to be held in October 2007 in India. Regular follow up and implementation of the decisions taken should be ensured. Tackling CorruptionIt was agreed to exchange information on national experience in combating corruption as an issue of serious concern. All members of WTO should show commitment for a successful conclusion of the Doha Round. The region would benefit from the participation of China, EU, Japan, ROK and the USA as observers to SAARC and help its economic integration with the international community. Iran was also welcomed to be associated as observer to SAARC. All the member nations should work jointly for the successful implementation of the declarations made in this summit. Let us hope for the success of the 15th SAARC Summit Meeting to be held in Maldives.

Source: The Rising Nepal, June 5, 2007

Growing Insurgency In South Asia

Dr. Trilochan Upreti

The South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) is one of the poorest regions in the world. Inhabited by 25 per cent of the global population, the region exhibits, perhaps, the most disproportionate gap between the haves and have-nots as far as income is concerned.

Infuriated by such discrimination and the wide gap in incomes and opportunities, insurgencies against the status quo has become a common phenomenon in the entire region, and no nation has remained unaffected by the effect.Hot spotsNepal witnessed a terrible insurgency unleashed by the Maoists for over a decade. It claimed the lives of more than 13,000 people and destroyed property worth billions of rupees. At the moment, the problem is being sorted out by bringing the Maoists into mainstream politics and accommodating them in the parliament and the government following the conclusion of a 12-point agreement and a comprehensive peace accord between the Maoists and the Seven Party Alliance. However, the peace process has been witnessing several upheavals and twists and turns. The common agenda of all the political parties in Nepal is holding the constituent assembly (CA) polls, but whether it will be held remains a big question. The consequence of the insurgency has been suicidal for the economic development of Nepal, which has pushed the country back by at least 30 years in terms of stability and prosperity.In India, the far eastern region of Assam, Meghalaya and Manipur and Kashmir have been hot spots where an insurgency has been brewing for quite some time.

The problem of Punjab was thought settled forever, but it appears that there have been recent efforts in the United Kingdom to revive the Khalistan movement. A conference at a Gurudwara in Birmingham sought to revive the Khalistan movement and brought together secessionists from Nagaland, Kashmir and Assam on the same platform.It was supported by a member of the British House of Lords, Nazir Ahmad, and also a member of the British House of Commons, Khalid Mehmood, who endorsed the struggle for Khalistan. They spoke of the people's right to self-determination in other parts of India, including Kashmir. Various Sikh organisations operating from the UK and leaders like Jagjit Singh, among others, had participated in this meeting in which the message of Mr. Muivah was read out by the organisers. Besides, India has been engaged in a long dispute and insurgency in Kashmir and in the eastern states of Assam and Meghalaya. India spends heavily on the military trying to contain the insurgency, which again occupies a good deal of the government's time. If the money spent on the military in these states were to be spent on development activities, they might have achieved a lot more progress and stability. India has fought two wars with Pakistan over Kashmir and Bangladesh, and tensions continue to surface from time to time, which is a setback to economic activities.

India has become the largest arms importer in the developing world. It spent as much as IRs 44,009 crore (around $ 10.5 billion) on importing military hardware and software in the past three years.One can find the Singhbahini and Chakma insurgencies in Bangladesh, which are seeking independence. This has led to a resources crunch in the already poverty-stricken country. Apart from this, the increasing influence of the fundamentalists and their activities have become a major obstacle for stability and economic development of Bangladesh, where the gap between the haves and have-nots is increasing rapidly.Bhutan is also on the brink of a civil war. If the Druk regime fails to understand the sensitivity of the refugee problem and strive for a timely and fair resolution, then it is certain to be entrapped in a long civil war. That is bound to happen because the regime, rather than attempting to resolve the problem sincerely, is trying to expel more people from its territory. The Druk regime is buoyed by the American Government's decision to settle the Bhutanese refugees, who have been languishing in Nepalese camps, in the United States. Some other developed countries have also shown their interest in settling the refugees. The international community has failed miserably in preventing the exodus of refugees following a campaign of ethnic cleansing carried out systematically by the Bhutanese regime.

It is shameful for a country like India, which is referred to as a regional power aspiring for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and likes to be called the biggest democracy of this globe, to be supporting such atrocities of Bhutan. Pakistan has been suffering from the independence campaign emerging in the provinces of Sind and the North East Frontier.

A major problem is the fair allocation of water resources of the Indus basin. At the moment, there is complaint that Punjab has deprived Sind of its appropriate share of water and is destroying its agriculture. The border area with Afghanistan has always been a problem not only for Pakistan but the world community as well. It is strongly believed that the leader of Al Qaeda is hiding inside the difficult hilly terrain of Pakistan.Sri Lanka has suffered heavily from the civil war for the last 20 years, in which more than 70,000 people have been killed.

Its economy would have obtained near developed status had there been no civil war during this period. Maldives remains disturbed for the establishment of democracy. The democrats and government supporters have been fighting one another for several years. A few years ago, a group of mercenaries carried out a coup, in which the government of India protected the regime by sending its military to Male and defeating the mercenaries.Economic developmentThe south Asian nations need to find out why insurgencies are breaking out and accordingly sort out the problems and move forward for economic development. They can no longer afford to lose time, money and resources fighting their own people. They need rather to focus on development and make their lives prosperous. Otherwise, the region will be left far behind.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 31 , 2007

Global Warming And South Asia

Dr. Trilochan Upreti

GLOBAL warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the earth and the oceans in recent times, and in the future. Gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride and hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) and water vapour are called green house gases, which are collected in the atmosphere like a blanket trapping the sun's heat that is radiated off the earth's surface. These gases have been contributing factors to global warming over the past 50 years, during which the average global temperature is said to have increased at the fastest rate recorded in history and is expected to keep increasing at a rate of up to 2 degrees Celsius in the next 50 years. This would eventually lead to a rise in the sea levels that will inundate the low lying coastal belts, even leading to many smaller islands being totally submerged. InundationThe Maldives will disappear along with many island nations; one third of Bangladesh will be under water and, likewise, low lying belts of many coastal states would also be inundated. Consequently, there would be other disastrous effects. For example, there would be frequent incidents of extreme weather conditions like floods, heat waves, droughts and hurricanes that would trigger natural calamities, making human life more difficult than ever.

There have been no dearth of scientists and politicians who maintained that global warming is part of a natural process that occurs due to non-human causes like solar activity, volcanic emissions and so on. However, after the landmark report of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose drafting was marked by an angry row, the argument blaming nature for global warming has lost its trust and credibility, and the world community has unanimously blamed human intervention for the issues. This is an interesting shift in the mind-set of the global community concerning the issue.The IPCC has strongly suggested that countries ought to adopt strategies to mitigate global warming through measures such as energy conservation and shifting to renewable sources of energy to displace carbon fuels and, thus, reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. As a result of such concern, the Kyoto Protocol was drawn up. The protocol is an agreement made under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. By 2006, 169 countries, responsible for 61.6% of emissions, have ratified it except the USA and Australia.

The USA, which is the largest economy of the world and contributes 25% of the global emission, has not ratified the Convention arguing that allowing unfettered emission levels to countries like India and China is unacceptable and that the USA has adopted effective measures for combatting global warming issues on its own. Whereas the developing countries are directly blaming the developed countries for the global warming, they are also maintaining that they first need to develop their own economy, a process which would be hampered by compliance with the instrument at this juncture in time. Those responsible for the irreparable damage due to climate change and problems associated with it should reverse the impacts through their own effort. Thus, global warming has remained a threat to the existence of the earth and its inhabitants, including the flora and fauna.The IPCC report predicts that billions of people will face water scarcity and hundreds of millions will likely go hungry, mainly in the poorest regions least to blame for spewing the fossil fuel pollution that is driving up temperatures. Likewise, glacier meltdown and ice sheet erosion will accelerate, which would impact the sea levels, causing devastating impacts on the coastal states. Similarly, upto 30 per cent of the planet's plants and animal species will become extinct, if temperatures rise by 1.50C to 2.50C.

The poorest regions and continents will suffer the most - tropical countries, African continent and the SAARC region. That means the melting of glaciers and Himalaya in Nepal would adversely affect the entire SAARC region and its weather pattern, causing abnormal drought and floods, which will contribute to the scourge of famine upon one billion people. One third of Bangladesh and huge swathes of Indian coastal territory would be inundated, inviting extraordinary problems of human survival in the entire South Asian region. Numerous problems not yet identified would emerge, leaving no space for easy resolution. These nations are already witnessing huge problems for their economic development, and tackling the issues of poverty will have to confront additional formidable problems. Eventually, it would invite inconceivable conflicts amongst communities, states and nations making it extremely difficult to find a point of resolution.One must study its impact at the national level by recalling that many bridges and one hydropower plant were washed away when one glacial lake caused by a retreating Himalayan glacier in Solokhumbu district burst a few years ago.

What would be the effect when glacial retreat and melting of the Himalayan peaks occur at the same time? We have huge human settlements near the banks of rivers, and most of the fertile lands in the hills lie on the banks of rivers. When such catastrophes occur, it will wash away people and inundate and fill up adjoining agricultural lands with sand and boulders.No one can even predict the magnitude of its implication for India and Bangladesh, where huge devastations and disasters will wash away millions of people and waste millions hectares of agricultural land. Towns and cities will be transformed into graveyards. Clean hydropower should be developed and used by the needy countries by adopting an equitable sharing of the benefits of the immense water resources of the region. In this context, this time could be the best for resolving every outstanding issue on sharing and utilising the huge water resources in the SAARC region by addressing the past grievances and also accommodating the future needs of all nations on an equal and equitable basis. Blame gameRather than blaming each other, the developed and developing countries like China, India and Brazil should comply with the provision of the Kyoto protocol by involving themselves in the resolution of the problem and making space to exist for future generations. The developed nations should assist them wholeheartedly for obtaining this global objective.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 17, 2007