New hope for Nepal

Paul Soren

The prolonged confusion and apprehension over holding of Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and the issue of monarchy was partially resolved when the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and Maoists signed a 23-point new agreement on December 23, 2007. This is fourth major agreement reached between the SPA and Maoists after the Jana Aandholan of April 2006. The interim government also approved the new pact which it is hoped will pave the way for the CA polls.

The interim parliament also passed an amendment bill to the interim constitution, declaring that Nepal would be a federal democratic republic after the CA polls. This will finally lead to the abolition of monarchy during the first sitting of the constituent assembly. It has also cleared the decks for the Maoists to rejoin the cabinet. The ball is now in the Maoists court and they have to make a move. They have to keep their commitments and join the democratic process and also ensure that polls are held on time.

For the present the new pact seems to be a good deal as it has cleared some of the existing political uncertainties and hiccups. This appears to be a tangible roadmap for a New Nepal. However, there are a few key questions which need to be further probed before making any conclusive statement. Will the 23-point pact pave way for timely CA polls and end the ongoing political crisis? The major demands of the Maoists have been addressed but what is the guarantee that they will sincerely participate in the polls? Will the Maoists come up with new set of demands to obstruct the CA polls? More importantly, will it address the Madhesi concerns and accommodate their political ambitions?

Analyzing it positively, it indicates that the new pact should be able to end the political stalemate in the country. The new agreement has primarily addressed two of the major issues obstructing the peace process and delaying the polls. The Maoists ’ demand for a republic and proportional representation has been met. Though the second Maoist demand for a full PR system has been partially met but it could still be acceptable to them. Similarly, in an effort to bring inclusiveness in the polity, the interim parliament also amended the constitution and increased number of members from 497 to 601. Thereby, 335 members will be elected under the proportional representation system, 240 members on first past the post system and 26 members will be nominated by the Prime Minister. It is expected that the amended constitution will be able to accommodate aspirations of the marginalised and deprived sections of the country. It should provide them an opportunity to represent their political viewpoint.

Despite all these positive trends, the government has several daunting tasks to perform. Firstly, it has to address the Tarai problem because elections cannot be held if the Tarai is left burning. Secondly, the security situation in the country is worrisome and need to be improved. The government has to take into account all these critical issues and address them on priority basis. Further and this is very important, the SPA members and Maoists have to stay united and stop playing the blame game. They need to co-operate with each other and find viable political solutions to the various problems the country. They also need to evolve a consensus over these issues and take them to their logical end.

Essentially the new deal enables the Maoists to rejoin the interim government by addressing two of their major demands. The rising aspirations of the Nepali people for peace and stability, require that political players play a leading role in establishing peace. They should also cooperate with other parties in sustaining the peace process. The Maoists credibility, will determined by their seriousness and adherence to their commitments. Manipulative politics and rigidity have to be replaced by transparency and flexibility in finding solutions to problems. The Maoists need to prevent their cadres (especially the Young Communist League) from indulging in terror and unlawful criminal activities. Any further attempts to stay away from the polls or creating obstacles in the holding of polls will rebound on them.

Since the institution of monarchy – controversial and meddlesome in politics -- has always been a focal point of debate in Nepali politics there has always been a struggle for power between the monarchy and democratic forces. The Maoists were the latest entrants in to this struggle to abolish what they described as a feudal institution. The new pact would eventually lead to the removal of monarchy in the country. The resultant amended constitution has empowered the parliament to abolish monarchy if the government suspects that the monarchy is playing a spoiler hand or intends to thwart the peace process. However, the Maoists would ensure that the monarchy is wiped out completely from the Nepali polity. The bill eases the government’s burden as it can now attempt to hold the polls by mid-April 2008.

There are a few negative aspects of the new pact and amended constitution. The new agreement does not directly address the ongoing Tarai problem inviting criticism from opposition party members and agitating Madhesi groups and the SPA and Maoists have been accused of taking arbitrary decisions. They alleged that common citizens have been deprived of their rights in the decision making process. It is true that the SPA and Maoists have neglected Madhesi aspirations by not addressing issues raised by them. It appears that the new pact is meant only to appease the Maoists rather than finding a political solution endangering the country. The SPA and Maoists have completely ignored that stability in Tarai is a very critical element for holding of a successful election. The Tarai problem if left unresolved has the potential to further complicate the peace process and aggravate the situation. Therefore resolving the Madheshi problem should be of the utmost importance for the government and parties.

The new agreement is an opportunity for the parties and Maoists to end the ongoing political crisis and will be a feasible roadmap for creating a new Nepal provided the SPA and Maoists can give up their petty political interests and exhibit the political will to address some of these pertinent issues like the Tarai problem and avoid delaying the polls. Most importantly, the SPA and Maoists have to create a conducive environment for the success of the polls.

Source: Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, January 7, 2008