NEPAL: ENTER CHINA, EXIT INDIA?

N.P.Upadhyaya

Kathmandu: Gone are the days of Indian hegemony in Nepal, it appears. The self-proclaimed “big-brother”-India-now will have yet another “real big brother” in Kathmandu to counter the Indian hegemony.
If one were to believe what the freshly appointed Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Zhen Xianglin, has said to a vernacular fortnightly the other day, what appears to be for sure is that China will henceforth not tolerate any Indian hegemony and dictates imposed on this India-locked country.
Ambassador Xianglin appears to have understood the inner problems and the issues plaguing this country in details though his stay in Kathmandu has not even exceeded two months time.

However, the manner he has understood the political events currently unfolding in this country and the way he has expressed his country’s views in a firm and determined style does hint that now onwards China too would be a “player” in Nepali politics which is what Comrade Prachanda too prefers.
This means that China as a “traditional and trustworthy neighbor of Nepal” will have its own axis in Nepal that will comprise of a single country-China itself.
Judging at what the Chinese Ambassador has told to the vernacular fortnightly, what becomes abundantly clear is that China will be more interested now onwards to safeguard her own political interests in this country that are aplenty, to say the least.
The Chinese envoy assuring Nepal in a subtle manner authoritatively says that China has not yet deflected from what Marshal Chen Yi as back as in 1961 October 2 had told of Nepal.

To recall, Marshal Chen Yi during a visit to Kathmandu had said, in his own words, “China will not tolerate if there is any aggression against Nepal by any country”.
The Chinese envoy’s emphasis and reassurance to the Nepalese people that China still valued what Marshal Chen Yi said long time back must force some countries in Nepal’s neighborhood to pull their hairs.
The countries near and far dictating Nepal to do this or to do that must not have taken these fresh Chinese sentimental attachments towards Nepal in good taste.
Now what is more than clear is that China will show its presence in this country which so far remained in what has been called as a “low profile” status.
Beijing, better late than never, appears to have realized that any political disturbances in Nepal and its adjoining areas might have a profound impact upon its own under belly-Tibet autonomous region. It is perhaps these factors which prompts the Chinese envoy to suggest the Nepali establishment to sort out the political issues plaguing the Terai/Madhesh at the earliest fearing probably its impact might reach up to the bordering town of China.

However, China says, no external interference should be there while sorting out the Terai issues. This is significant in more ways than one. The message should be loud and clear to those who have been poking their nose in Nepal’s what the Ambassador says, “Internal affairs”.
The Chinese Ambassador appears more than happy with the Nepalese authorities who have assured him and his country that any anti-China activities will not be allowed to occur in the Nepali soil.
In effect, this is what China wants from Nepal and in lieu China is more than willing to contribute to the development of this country by what ever means it can. Chinese grand assurance comes once again in the form of a million dollar assurance wherein its commits itself that China will come into action the moment she concludes that Nepal’s territorial integrity and national independence were in jeopardy.
However, what is bewildering some analysts is that such similar statement both in content and nature had emanated in Kathmandu early last year when a Chinese State councilor Tang Jiaxuan-a comparatively higher authority in the Chinese state hierarchy-too had assured the then ruling regime but when it came to the crunch, the expected Chinese support was “missing”.

Look what Mr. Tang had said then, “We consistently support Nepal in its effort to safeguard sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Nepal is a sovereign country, and its internal affairs shall not be interfered with in any way by any outside forces. We believe that the Nepalese government and people have the political wisdom and capabilities to solve their own problems.
How and which factors/forces converged together and managed the ouster of the Royal regime is any body’s guess. The naked Indian interference that was visible then is not a thing that any one could presume that the Chinese authorities did not know or understand.
The Royal regime definitely had counted on Chinese support more so after the Tang’s speech made right here in Kathmandu. The Chinese silence acquired then is yet shrouded in a mystery

Should this mean that China will even now allow Indian South Block mandarins to impose their heinous dictates in an uninterrupted manner and would only come into full action or play when India infringed upon Nepal’s territorial integrity and sovereignty? At least this much becomes visible from the Chinese Ambassador’s interview. However, surprising though it may appear to some, more so to the chagrin of the Americans, the Chinese envoy sees a friend in the Maoists. He says since they have been already a part of the interim government that enjoys people’s mandate and legitimacy so nothing could be said of the Maoists. He further says that “looking the Maoists might differ from one country to the other hinting that China does not bother what the Americans see the Maoists. Hmmm….
In a subtle manner, the Chinese envoy possesses some soft corner for the Maoists for reasons unknown to analysts here. But some intelligent brains here conclude that China would keep the Maoists close to them in order to distance the India’s all pervasive political interference in this country.

To put it in another words, China would want the Maoists to act like a deterrent against the Indian hegemony in Nepal which others have failed so far.
No wonder, some top Maoists leaders have already traveled to China in order to build conducive political atmosphere in their favor.
Reports have it that Comrade Prachanda together his son-Prakash-will be visiting Beijing some where around October-November.
This is no less disturbing news for Indian authorities.
Added reports say that one Chinese professor Wang Hoi mediated the China-Maoists friendship. Prof. Wang is considered to be a brain on South Asian affairs.
Be that as it may, with China’s forceful assertion that it would have its presence felt in this country bodes well for this India-locked country for a variety of seen and unseen reasons.

No less important is the Chinese envoy’s admission that his country was ready to supply petro-products to Nepal if properly requested.
Analysts presume the Chinese political influence, in that eventuality will be, mathematically speaking, inversely proportional to that of the self-proclaimed big-brothers’ influence in Nepal.
Not a bad news. It’s time that the South Block mandarins begin pulling their hairs! However, Indians are not that fools. They have several cards under their sleeve and countless stooges working day in day out funded by the notorious RAW-Research Analysis Wing. Which card they will use to counter the fresh Chinese enthusiastic political overtures will have to be watched and how in such an eventuality, the Chinese retort back will be no less entertaining-speaking on political terms.

Source: The Telegraph Nepal, June 14, 2007

Common ground

E conomists have expressed concern about the Nepali economy and one big source of it is the lack of clarity in the economic policy of the major political parties. They fear an economic drift. Political and business leaders occasionally call for a national consensus on economic development. At an interaction on ‘Industrialisation’ held in the capital on Tuesday, representatives of several political parties stressed the need for: a common vision for development, a common code of conduct for the sister organisations of the parties concerning industry, including bandhs and strikes, keeping the industry away from politics, a common minimum economic agenda of the parties, etc.

The existence of various political parties implies various policies on the economy and other sectors. But this should not form a barrier to the evolution of a broad common area of agreement on vital sectors, such as the economy, the use of principal natural resources (in Nepal’s context, water resources), foreign policy, and national security, how to maximise benefits from the country’s location between the fast developing giant neighbours and from other international economic ties. But, before the parties can develop such a consensual policy covering these areas, each needs to have a clear vision and a clear set of goals and objectives as to how it would steer the country with respect to those areas by itself if it came to power. Here, the parties have still to make their minds clear and let the people understand what they really want.One wonders how the Nepali Congress’s socialistic pattern of society meshes well with the policy of liberalisation and privatisation that are sweeping much of the world within the framework of globalisation. And how may one explain the gap between theparty’s policy and practice? The CPN-UML seems to be confused about its economic policy, as it struggles to balance between its communist brand and the present-day economic realities. The Maoists, who have yet to achieve full integration into the capitalistic pattern of economic management, have provided only a sketchy picture of the economic direction they will take, not a definite total picture of what they call a ‘mixed economy’. The confusion persists also as to whose policy the upcoming national budget will reflect. The Congress’s because the finance minister belongs to that party? Or, will it form a consensual document of the eight parties represented in the government? What about the three-year development plan being prepared by the National Planning Commission (NPC) for the interim period, whose length is still uncertain? Besides, as the NPC represents a hangover of the days of a regulated economy, is it not time its very role, and its very raison d’etre, were reconsidered in the new globalised context?

Nobody discounts the overriding importance of the political process of peace and polls. But it does not have to exclude important work on other areas vital to the nation. And what better time than this interim period the political parties will have for building such a consensus.

Source: The Himalayan Times, June 14, 2007

Nepal vis-a-vis Asia-Pacific security

Bhaskar Koirala

The conclusion in Singapore of the annual International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Asia Security Summit (or Shangri-La Dialogue) on June 3, which witnessed the largest ever gathering of defence and foreign ministers, plus chiefs of defence staff and others, affords an opportunity for Nepal to examine its role and prospects in the broader scheme of Asiansecurity and defence dynamics.It is a matter of regret that Nepal has diverted its attention from larger events in international politics by focusing on petty internal rivalries. The peace process is truly simple if the principle actors bear in mind that Nepal very realistically has the potential to be a fairly high-profile Asian state with the capability of exerting a modestly benign influence on the maintenance of overall peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

As a first step, Nepal must participate in the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore next year in order to take stock of the critical issues and to assimilate these into its foreign policy.From Asia-Pacific perspective, the most profound weakness in Nepal’s strategy has been a narrow vision focused too closely on India. What is not understood is that an absence of a more diverse Nepali foreign policy is not only detrimental to Nepal, but equally to India as well. Geography or geographic constraints do not necessarily define freedom of action for any state. Nepal must play its cards astutely and devise an appropriate policy that places Nepal within the context of Asia more broadly.In his address to the Security Summit, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong laid out the over-arching strategic environment in Asia focusing on the state of relations between major powers and over-riding regional concerns.

One important observation made by him was that the US, China, Japan, and India “set the parameters for long-term cooperation and competition among the regional countries” in the Asia Pacific.In Nepal’s context, it is not yet clear how these four major powers’ intentions and activities are converging or diverging with respect to their particular interests. Is it undeniable that a Nepal which has spun out of control is strategically not suitable for any of the powers concerned. A mountainous terrain amenable to guerrilla warfare and a fairly substantial Muslim population are among the factors that must militate against any serious outsideintentions to destabilise this Himalayan state. Moreover, as Nepal shares long and porous borders with both India and China, the economic and political repercussions of a deeply unstable political milieu in Nepal will no doubt be widespread and even detrimental to the region.

In terms of China-Nepal relations and the latter serving as a possible conduit for China in South Asia, it is important to highlight PM Loong’s remarks that “what the Chinese are saying to their own people gives some insight into their thinking.” It appears that Nepal’s strategic interests and imperatives in more expansive relations with China will pose unnecessary challenges to Indian interests.Nepal within the context of Asia-Pacific security thus essentially means that Nepal’s foreign policy must be sufficiently ‘entangled’ with the greatest number of other states toensure equidistance, neutrality and stable security environment.

Source: The Himalayan Times, June 14, 2007

Economic Scenario

THE overall economic scenario of the country seems to be in the right direction despite some negative trends in certain areas. According to an analysis report of the Nepal Rastra Bank, the central bank of Nepal, the balance of payment in the first nine months of the current fiscal year posted a surplus of 10.79 billion rupees. It is mainly due to increased inflow of remittances from Nepalese working abroad. This is a positive trend as Nepal now has a comfortable situation as far as foreign currency reserves and balance of payment are concerned, which was rare in the past. The adequate reserve in foreign currency has led to an appreciation of the rupee against some major foreign currencies. But remittance alone does not help consolidate the economy and balance of payment in the long run. The main engine for a sound foreign currency reserve, balance of payment and overall economic development is the export sector. However, the export sector does not appear to be in a healthy condition. The central bank's report states that the export sector has witnessed a continued downward slide. Exports in the first nine months of the current fiscal year saw a decline by 2.9 per cent.

This is by no means a positive symptom. But the other sectors have shown mixed results. The economy of the country had badly suffered due to the decade-long insurgency and conflict. But the situation changed, and economic activities started picking up after the success of Jana Andolan II that restored democracy and also paved the way for the peace process. The situation became more encouraging after a cease-fire between the government and the Maoists was announced and a national comprehensive peace treaty was signed. However, strikes and protests programmes continued at the call of different trade unions, political and ethnic groups. The agitation in the Terai has been long and has hit the economy and other sectors hard. The decline in exports is also mainly because of the frequent strikes in the Terai areas. However, the overall economic indicators have shown positive signs. The GDP growth rate is expected to do better. Past experience has shown that peace is the main requisite for economic and social development. Now the political process is underway to make the peace process a success and ensure state restructuring, which is expected to give a further boost to the economy. The national economy should be the concern of all the political parties irrespective of their ideology. Thus, there must be equal efforts from all sectors to expedite the economic activities and development. The national economy should not be a victim of personal and partisan interest. The ongoing peace process must be successful for sustainable economic development as well. We must understand that our prosperity is ensured only when the national economy booms and flourishes.

Source: The Rising Nepal, June 13, 2007

Security For CA polls

Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has acquired information from the security apparatus responsible for maintaining law and order in the country. On Monday, the prime minister discussed with defense officials about the security arrangements to be made for conducting the polls to the constituent assembly in addition to taking stock of the prevailing situation in the country. As reported, the prime minister inquired how the demand by the Maoists to translocate the army camp from a VDC in Kapilvastu district could be addressed. It is to be noted that the Maoists have demanded the relocation of the army camp put up at Birpur VDC as, according to it, the camp was allegedly set up to conduct offensive operations against the progressive forces during the royal regime. The Maoists had called a strike in the district last week in which private vehicles and load carriers were vandalised. This issue was taken up when Maoist leader Prachanda met with the prime minister recently, and the latter had pledged to look into the matter after holding consultations with the agency concerned.

Since Prime Minister Koirala is committed to holding the polls to the constituent assembly, it is in the fitness of things that he is holding consultations with the agencies and actors concerned over how the democratic exercise could be effectively hosted without any let up or hindrance. As called by the prime minister, no political forces can afford to be swayed by passion without coming to terms with the evolving situation in the country. The determination of the prime minister to conduct the polls for the constituent assembly should be understood properly so that the journey to peace and democracy is not circumvented at any rate. The political parties, including the Maoists, should resonate with the views of the prime minister and conduct themselves accordingly. As some issues may be controversial, it is necessary that the parties take more time to discuss and settle them properly. The party leaders should be engaged in frequent meetings and interactions in an attempt to reach a consensus on some of the outstanding subjects. The future of Nepal lies in peace and political stability, and the international community is keen to see that the conflict in Nepal is fully resolved. The relevant actors must, therefore, keep their stakes open for permanent peace and democracy.

Source: The Rising Nepal, June 13, 2007