Guerrilla strike

Yubaraj Ghimire

As Nepal’s politics takes new twists and turns, holding elections for the Constituent Assembly appears more and more uncertain, if not impossible. And that puts the seven-party unity under further strain.

For the purpose of elections, these seven parties had accepted G.P. Koirala as their patriarch. Prime Minister Koirala was also vested with the power of the king as the monarchy remains in a state of suspension. But now, with two deadlines for the CA polls having been missed — first June and then in November — the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) is not only demanding elections solely on its terms, it has also threatened to depose Koirala as PM. CPN-M chief Prachanda declared recently that Koirala was behaving more like King Gyanendra, undermining the role of his guerrillas in bringing the current political change that catapulted him to power. Prachanda has also asserted that the CA elections cannot take place without these guerrillas being integrated into the national army.

This, in effect, is the third pre-condition that Prachanda has put forward for the CA polls. His party’s other two demands — adoption of the proportional system of election and abolition of monarchy — have not found adequate support among the seven parties, and the latest one is certainly going to be resisted by many as there are increasing protests in several parts of the country against the Young Communist League (YCL). YCL is the youth wing of the party, with a large number of former guerrillas in it, who maintain parallel governments and kangaroo courts even today. Although the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the third largest party in the coalition, has come forward in support of the first two demands of the Maoists, the induction of the politically indoctrinated guerrillas into the national army is unacceptable to them as well.

The number of guerrillas lodged in cantonments as the United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) began its work stood at 31,000. But in less than a year, at least 7,000 have already deserted those camps, while around 10,000 are found disqualified by UNMIN, as they were found either under age or recruited after May 6, 2006, the cut-off date for enrollment. The Maoist threat to depose Koirala if he failed to reintegrate these guerrillas in the army also followed Prachanda’s declaration that they are ready to raise their guns again and fight for another 40 years to establish their rule in the country.

While that makes Koirala’s position shaky, Prachanda also runs the risk of losing whatever support and encouragement he has been able to gather in peace time. Former US President Jimmy Carter recently suggested that 70 per cent of the proposed 480 seats in CA be filled up under the proportional system leaving the rest to be fought under the first-past-the-post system, a gesture to the Maoists who have demanded a 100 per cent PR system. But within 24 hours of Carter leaving Nepal, the Maoists put forth the new condition for the CA polls.

Of late, Koirala seems to be toying with the idea of going to the polls without the Maoists as “they have used the peace process only tactically and not as a commitment to democracy”. But that comes at a time when Koirala is being seen as a total failure, both at home and abroad. The fact that Delhi has not sent the agreemo, despite Shailaja Acharya, a senior Nepali Congress leader and Koirala’s niece, being recommended as ambassador, shows how seriously Delhi takes Koirala now. Out of 18 ambassadors Nepal appointed recently, five are yet to receive the agreemo. The other four: France, Denmark, Australia and Malaysia may not accept them as Nepal’s representatives to their countries since the Maoists have failed to show that they have faith in democracy and elections. But Delhi’s delay has been taken as an indication of Koirala’s legitimacy being on the decline. Sadly, the home assessment about the Koirala regime is equally negative.

Source: The Indian Express, November 28, 2007