New Nepal - A Country Out of Whack
Sangram Singh Basnyat
The secularization of Nepal has made the ambiance quite treacherous for the holy cows of Nepal. But the predicament of the Nepali populace is even worse. With no water trickling from the spigots, irregular supply of electricity, scarcity of fuel, worsening food security, rising ethnic tensions, unabated criminalities, and nonchalant law enforcement, Nepal's plight is easily discernable. Also, no cover is adequate for security. While insecurity and inadequacies plague Nepal, the vaunted rhetoric of "New Nepal" is unfolding into a bitter irony.
The annual failed states index published by the Foreign Policy magazine had placed Nepal in the 21st seat. In the list of failed states, only 20 states were ranked worse than Nepal. In 2006, Nepal was ranked 20. When the indicators assessed a slight improvement in the overall conditions of the country, it nudged Nepal from the Red (1-20) to Orange (21- 40) category. It is to be noted however, that the 2007 rankings were the result of the data collected in 2006.
But today, if those same indicators were re-employed to calibrate Nepal's situation, it would certainly bump up Nepal 's ranking. Given the insecurity and inadequacies, it would easily position Nepal in the "Red" (Top 20) category. In just a matter of a year, Nepal's security situation has acutely deteriorated. Even at the crest of the maoist instigated violence, the overall security situation was not as bad as it is today. Today the entire country is gripped with fear and uncertainty.
The annual failed states index published by the Foreign Policy magazine had placed Nepal in the 21st seat. In the list of failed states, only 20 states were ranked worse than Nepal. In 2006, Nepal was ranked 20. When the indicators assessed a slight improvement in the overall conditions of the country, it nudged Nepal from the Red (1-20) to Orange (21- 40) category. It is to be noted however, that the 2007 rankings were the result of the data collected in 2006.
But today, if those same indicators were re-employed to calibrate Nepal's situation, it would certainly bump up Nepal 's ranking. Given the insecurity and inadequacies, it would easily position Nepal in the "Red" (Top 20) category. In just a matter of a year, Nepal's security situation has acutely deteriorated. Even at the crest of the maoist instigated violence, the overall security situation was not as bad as it is today. Today the entire country is gripped with fear and uncertainty.
From the King to the common man, no one feels secure. While the truculent government and parliament set on clipping all his royal prerogatives, the King feels the heat of abolition and even incarceration. Perhaps even execution if the maoists had their way. And recently, for the first time in history, the King has officially requested for extra security backup during his birthday bash. The King's request for security says it all.
It is not just the King however, but even the seemingly omnipotent prachanda feels threatened. Fearing an assassination attempt, he has demanded extra security. Currently there is fifty man contingent (a mix of maoists and armed police) to provide security for the maoist supremo (no other leader in Nepal has this elaborate security arrangement).
Other maoist ministers seem quite threatened too. Very recently, their paranoia of insecurity was exposed when there was a change in their personal army guards. Crying foul play, they claimed that the new Army guards were sent from the Bhairavnath battalion and Ranger battalion to assassinate them.
Not just the maoists, but the insecurity contagion has infected others top leaders and government officials as well. Surya Bahadur Thapa and Sher Bahadur Deuba recently demanded the government to provide them with extra security. Civil servants have recently halted work demanding extra security measures too. Even the VDC secretaries are staging protests demanding a secure work environment. Both the civil servant unions and union of VDC secretaries are currently launching a nationwide agitation demanding security.
It is not just the King however, but even the seemingly omnipotent prachanda feels threatened. Fearing an assassination attempt, he has demanded extra security. Currently there is fifty man contingent (a mix of maoists and armed police) to provide security for the maoist supremo (no other leader in Nepal has this elaborate security arrangement).
Other maoist ministers seem quite threatened too. Very recently, their paranoia of insecurity was exposed when there was a change in their personal army guards. Crying foul play, they claimed that the new Army guards were sent from the Bhairavnath battalion and Ranger battalion to assassinate them.
Not just the maoists, but the insecurity contagion has infected others top leaders and government officials as well. Surya Bahadur Thapa and Sher Bahadur Deuba recently demanded the government to provide them with extra security. Civil servants have recently halted work demanding extra security measures too. Even the VDC secretaries are staging protests demanding a secure work environment. Both the civil servant unions and union of VDC secretaries are currently launching a nationwide agitation demanding security.
Ironically, even the security forces have contracted the insecurity contagion. With the ongoing talks of integration of the maoists into the Army, the Army is jittery. Even during their clandestine stage, the maoists had threatened families of security forces. Now that the maoists are in the ruling coalition, many in the security forces fear reprisal for their involvement in counter-insurgency.
The Police force is the perhaps the most vulnerable security wing and is equally insecure. There are innumerable cases where the police force has shown absolutely no commitment in enforcing the law due to their personal insecurities. Rather, they continue to remain insouciant. The unofficial motto for the force has become "inaction is much safer than action."
If the security forces and the other big power players feel insecure, one can easily deduce the plight of the general populace. With no robust law enforcement against rising criminalities and ethnic tensions, the population feels defenseless. As the authorities and security forces lie emasculated and insouciant, a buffer between threats and society has collapsed leaving the people critically vulnerable.
On top of insecurity there are other matters of dire concern. The scarcity of water across the country is alarming. Despite being a hydro opulent nation, the spigots across the nation have barely trickled a drop of drinking water. Certain places in Katmandu have not had water for weeks now. And thanks to the bolshiness of the maosist minister yami, the Melamchi water-project is close to defunct.
The Police force is the perhaps the most vulnerable security wing and is equally insecure. There are innumerable cases where the police force has shown absolutely no commitment in enforcing the law due to their personal insecurities. Rather, they continue to remain insouciant. The unofficial motto for the force has become "inaction is much safer than action."
If the security forces and the other big power players feel insecure, one can easily deduce the plight of the general populace. With no robust law enforcement against rising criminalities and ethnic tensions, the population feels defenseless. As the authorities and security forces lie emasculated and insouciant, a buffer between threats and society has collapsed leaving the people critically vulnerable.
On top of insecurity there are other matters of dire concern. The scarcity of water across the country is alarming. Despite being a hydro opulent nation, the spigots across the nation have barely trickled a drop of drinking water. Certain places in Katmandu have not had water for weeks now. And thanks to the bolshiness of the maosist minister yami, the Melamchi water-project is close to defunct.
Electricity too has become a rare commodity. While half of the population still lives without electricity, the other half is getting used to the darkness too. As vast swathes of land lie inundated due to the monsoon rains, the Nepal electricity authority (NEA) still claims that there is inadequate supply of water for electricity generation. So with hours of load-shedding, electricity is intermittent and utterly unreliable.
Another inadequacy is fuel shortage. Acute fuel shortages have also been a common phenomenon. Queues for fuel have been a frequent sight around Kathmandu. Laden with an unbearable debt, the Mecca of corruption and mismanagement - the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC), is coming to a grinding halt. With losses of over 180 million dollars over the past five years and 250 million dollars of debt to Indian oil corporation (IOC) and other financial institutions, IOC may cut off supply if NOC doesn't cough up soon. Given the heavily indebted status of NOC, the future of fuel supply looks inexorably bleak.
The economy is looking grim too. GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 2.7 to 3.2 % - which is below the regional and global average (global average hovers around 4%). Inflation rate is close to 8%. Nepal Chamber of Commerce (NCC) has recently said that the government's goal of the capping inflation at 5.5% is unattainable and unrealistic. It is further said that due to the dwindling exports, trade deficit is widening and the balance of payment surplus of 8 billion rupees is something difficult to achieve. It has further warned of dire consequences if the economy became solely reliant on remittances alone.
Another inadequacy is fuel shortage. Acute fuel shortages have also been a common phenomenon. Queues for fuel have been a frequent sight around Kathmandu. Laden with an unbearable debt, the Mecca of corruption and mismanagement - the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC), is coming to a grinding halt. With losses of over 180 million dollars over the past five years and 250 million dollars of debt to Indian oil corporation (IOC) and other financial institutions, IOC may cut off supply if NOC doesn't cough up soon. Given the heavily indebted status of NOC, the future of fuel supply looks inexorably bleak.
The economy is looking grim too. GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 2.7 to 3.2 % - which is below the regional and global average (global average hovers around 4%). Inflation rate is close to 8%. Nepal Chamber of Commerce (NCC) has recently said that the government's goal of the capping inflation at 5.5% is unattainable and unrealistic. It is further said that due to the dwindling exports, trade deficit is widening and the balance of payment surplus of 8 billion rupees is something difficult to achieve. It has further warned of dire consequences if the economy became solely reliant on remittances alone.
Another blow to the economy came recently when the World Bank (WB) threatened to suspend all assistance related to the financial sector reform project, as well as the proposed budgetary support. The Scottish consulting firm, ICCMT - that had been handling the management of troubled Nepal Bank Limited (NBL) for the last five years unilaterally terminated the management contract on July 22, citing inadequate cooperation from the central bank. The WB has demanded an immediate reinstatement of the ICCMT team.
If the WB were to suspend the assistance, it will immediately affect US$ 100 million reform projects at NBL, Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB) and reengineering at NRB. In addition, proposed grant assistance worth US$ 30 million aimed at enhancing access to finance will be an immediate victim. Likewise, the much-needed budget support for the current fiscal year will also become uncertain. The budget for the current fiscal year has anticipated receiving up to Rs 100 million.
Investment is intangible and taking a nose dive as well. Insecurity and instability have throttled foreign investment. Much to the consternation of the national industrialists and investors, maoists have aggressively formed labour unions left and right and are making preposterous demands. Even worrisome is the unabated extortion and the abduction of the individuals involved in the business enterprise. Criminal groups have gone on a rampage abducting Marwari businessmen and their family members for ransom. Such activities are fomenting capital flight and slump in investment. Due to the volatility, a large number of businessmen have already transferred most of their capital to overseas bank accounts.
If the WB were to suspend the assistance, it will immediately affect US$ 100 million reform projects at NBL, Rastriya Banijya Bank (RBB) and reengineering at NRB. In addition, proposed grant assistance worth US$ 30 million aimed at enhancing access to finance will be an immediate victim. Likewise, the much-needed budget support for the current fiscal year will also become uncertain. The budget for the current fiscal year has anticipated receiving up to Rs 100 million.
Investment is intangible and taking a nose dive as well. Insecurity and instability have throttled foreign investment. Much to the consternation of the national industrialists and investors, maoists have aggressively formed labour unions left and right and are making preposterous demands. Even worrisome is the unabated extortion and the abduction of the individuals involved in the business enterprise. Criminal groups have gone on a rampage abducting Marwari businessmen and their family members for ransom. Such activities are fomenting capital flight and slump in investment. Due to the volatility, a large number of businessmen have already transferred most of their capital to overseas bank accounts.
Even food supply is in a precarious condition. Last week, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) issued a joint statement raising alarm over the situation of food insecurity. Due to natural disasters and the conflict, food production has declined. Also, the frequent closure of national transportation arteries by random groups has severely hampered food supply. The most critical factor however, is the political unrest and violence in the Terai region. Considering the significance of Terai as the rice basket of Nepal, and the connecting conduit between the main supplier - India and the rest of the country, the turmoil is causing a huge distress to food production and supply.
The Terai conflict is evoking an even more hair-raising fright. Numerous violent madheshi groups have mushroomed in the past year with an array of demands. Although the demands of the different Madeshi groups are diverse, there is one unifying factor - they are all claiming to be the representatives of the Madhesi people. By identifying themselves as Madeshi people, they have distinctly separated themselves as different from the Pahades (hill-people).
Given the years of discrimination and marginalization, Madhesi demands for fair representation and opportunities may seem rational. But the violent tactics of targeting Pahades by radical groups like the JTTM Goit and Singh factions are fuelling ethnic hatreds on both sides. Till date, the ethnic melee has already cost scores of lives and appears to be heading towards a larger carnage.
The Terai conflict is evoking an even more hair-raising fright. Numerous violent madheshi groups have mushroomed in the past year with an array of demands. Although the demands of the different Madeshi groups are diverse, there is one unifying factor - they are all claiming to be the representatives of the Madhesi people. By identifying themselves as Madeshi people, they have distinctly separated themselves as different from the Pahades (hill-people).
Given the years of discrimination and marginalization, Madhesi demands for fair representation and opportunities may seem rational. But the violent tactics of targeting Pahades by radical groups like the JTTM Goit and Singh factions are fuelling ethnic hatreds on both sides. Till date, the ethnic melee has already cost scores of lives and appears to be heading towards a larger carnage.
During the April uprising, people rallied behind the SPAM coalition in hopes of a better future and more freedom. However, a year of SPAM reign has proved to be a damp squib. Ironically, Nepalis have lost even more freedom in the hopes of attaining more. Primarily, the basic amenities for survival like water, food and security is not only incommensurate but dwindling sharply. Hence, without much doubt it can be stated that the two main categories of freedom - freedom from fear and freedom from want are quickly vanishing. Furthermore, the banning of a song that mentions the name of the founder (Late King Prithvi Narayan Shah) of the nation accurately reflects the trend in freedom of speech.
However in contrast, other remarkable acquisitions have been made during the last fourteen months. Now Nepalis have the freedom to take ministerial oaths in denim jeans. There is freedom to amass an illimitable wealth through corruption without the fear of penalties, especially if you are the current prime minister's former associates. There is freedom to carry weapons into the parliament if you are a Member of Parliament. There is freedom to calls strikes, shut highways and roads in a whimsical manner. There is freedom to open steak houses and enjoy beef delicatessens. There is freedom to be called democratic without a democratic mandate. Practically, there is so much freedom that anyone is free to do whatever one’s heart desires. After all, the April uprising has supposedly unfettered Nepal from the manacles of feudalism and tyranny. So welcome to New Nepal - a country out of whack.
However in contrast, other remarkable acquisitions have been made during the last fourteen months. Now Nepalis have the freedom to take ministerial oaths in denim jeans. There is freedom to amass an illimitable wealth through corruption without the fear of penalties, especially if you are the current prime minister's former associates. There is freedom to carry weapons into the parliament if you are a Member of Parliament. There is freedom to calls strikes, shut highways and roads in a whimsical manner. There is freedom to open steak houses and enjoy beef delicatessens. There is freedom to be called democratic without a democratic mandate. Practically, there is so much freedom that anyone is free to do whatever one’s heart desires. After all, the April uprising has supposedly unfettered Nepal from the manacles of feudalism and tyranny. So welcome to New Nepal - a country out of whack.
Source: American Chronicle, August 2, 2007
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