Nepal on the track

Imran Khalid

Last week's agreement between the governing seven-party-alliance (Spa) and the Maoists to hold elections for a constituent assembly between mid-November and mid-December is a significant episode in Nepal's political history. The promise of elections, which were originally scheduled for June, was a key part of the deal signed by the Maoists with the government last year. Since April 2006, when the Nepalese monarch retreated within 19 days of protests, albeit with a toll of 19 lives of the protestors, there has been smooth progress towards the culmination of the Maoists' insurgency and establishment of democratic culture in a country that has been a monarchy for the last 238 years.

The restored parliament has drastically curtailed the king's power and prerogatives in the political system, and the Maoists are showing a readiness to get assimilated into mainstream politics and the power structure -- raising hopes of a move towards peace, stability and economic growth in this impoverished country. Since 1996, the Maoist factor has been dominating Nepalese politics. The Maoists, who had been violently agitating for the "removal of monarchy, liberation of rural population from the grip of the landlords and local administration, and creation of a "republic Nepal" for over a decade, got the impetus in their movement only during the last 14 months of King Gyanendra's despotic rule that had blatantly purged any traces of freedom of expression or democratic rights from Nepal.

Factually speaking, during their decade-long "people's war" that took at least 13,000 lives, the insurgent Maoists were able to generate as much momentum in their struggle against the monarchy as they had after February 2005. The real problem with the Maoist leadership was that it constantly squabbled with the mainstream political parties on this issue, and clung on to its violent methods. However, despite the heavy human toll, the Maoist's violent campaign could not generate enough effective thrust to seriously challenge and threaten the stability of the Kathmandu establishment.

Late King Birendra's constitutional reforms of 1990 -- that encouraged the establishment of a constitutional monarchy and rendered the King a popular titular head -- was certainly a prudent decision that kept the political forces from joining hands with the Maoist guerillas, and extinguished the possibility of any tangible anti-monarchy movement. The current intensity in the anti-Gyanendra movement derived its impulse from the fact that seven major political parties formed a loose alliance with the Maoists under a 12-point agreement that asked the Maoists to play by the rules of parliamentary democracy. The synergy created by the joint political forces and the Maoists added the incisive punch in the anti-monarchy campaign that had been missing in the past. The most positive aspects of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed between the two sides on November 21 last year are the Maoists' announcement to lay down their arms and to join the interim government, as well as to nominate members for the parliament.

The fact is that the Maoists control almost two-thirds of rural Nepal, and no government is likely to succeed in the implementation of any kind of developmental programs in Nepal without their cooperation and support. With 83 nominated members in the 329-member interim assembly, and five ministers in the interim cabinet, the Maoists are quickly de-learning their violent trends. But, despite registering their fighters and weapons with the United Nations, the Maoists still face allegations of extortions, beatings and kidnappings -- raising doubts whether the jungle warriors have really changed their outlook. Some members of the Maoists who have yet to adjust to their new life are habitually involved in these kinds of street crimes, and the Maoist leadership is trying to control these elements. Last month, after a hotelier was kidnapped and beaten for failing to hand over cash to the Maoists, the business community in Kathmandu staged a three-day strike. This was a major blow for the Maoist leadership's claim regarding a "change."

Even Maoist chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (also known as Prachanda), was forced to apologise and take action against the renegade former fighters. Apparently, the Maoists have understood the changed ground realities, and they want to take full advantage of the current situation. They are in a really good position to secure enough seats in the constituent assembly, and thus fulfill their prime demand that primarily revolves around the abolition of monarchy in Nepal. The coming months are likely to be dominated by an intense debate on the future of monarchy in Nepal.

The constituent assembly's major business will be to rewrite the constitution and redefine the role of monarchy. But, given the growing disillusionment with the monarchy, there is little hope for any significant role for it in Nepal, where the people were used to viewing the King as a God-like figure. But the "people's war" of 2006 has changed the whole scenario. Even the respected octogenarian Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who until recently was considered to be the only prominent politician in favour of the monarchy, has now changed his tone and has started talking openly about ditching the monarchy. This is a major development that may further heat up the issue when the elections are held in the later part of this year. So, Nepal is on the track.

Source: The Daily Star, June 8, 2007