New Nepal in the making

Ashok KMehta

Not long ago, when Nepal was being described as a failing or failed state and sceptics were describing prospects as a tunnel at the end of light, its well wishers were pointing south to follow the Sri Lanka example - enjoying the peace dividend from the four-year-long Cease Fire Agreement and a functioning peace process. Then suddenly the tables turned and Sri Lanka was engulfed in war and Nepal transitted from a bloody people's war to a peaceful revolution en route to peace and a political process which is not trouble free but in its second year.

The Maoists have given up arms and pledged not to return to 'armed conflict'. An eight-party interim unity Government with Maoists on board is in place supported by an interim Constitution and an interim Parliament. Nepal is in transition mode to becoming a new Nepal for which the goal is electing a Constituent Assembly.

The popular picture beamed from Nepal is one of organised chaos and collapse of law and order, political deadlock and a rudderless Government encumbered by conflicting political agendas and incapacity to cope with newly roused political aspirations of the Madhesis and other disadvantaged groups. The fear, sometimes contrived, of the Palace and Nepal Army does not go away. The Maoists are part of the problem and the solution in ending uncertainty over elections and their 'bad habits'. The real picture is not so bad. Nepal is in a post-revolution period and making the Maoists, accustomed to jungle raj, play by the rules will take more time.

The eight-party alliance has covered considerable ground despite the delay over consensus-building and the failure of the Maoists to implement earlier agreements. None of these would have been possible without the sterling leadership and intuition of Prime Minister GP Koirala. He is one man who understands the problems but his age has robbed him of the stamina to deal with all of them. Breaking one deadlock is invariably linked to yielding on another issue. Outcomes are based on who blinks first - Mr Koirala or Prachanda.

Disarming the Maoists, confining them to barracks and their verification and registration under United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), normally a very complex mission, was achieved with relative ease, with 31,000 PLA having been located in seven cantonments and 21 satellite camps with their weapons locked and sealed in containers. The second phase of verification, to ascertain Maoists recruited after the ceasefire of May 25, 2006 and under 18 years of age, was held up. Prachanda linked his party's compliance to implementation of the political package and welfare of PLA, which includes better housing and salaries. Reluctantly, Mr Koirala conceded the demand on PLA. The second phase of verification is to begin in June.

The Maoists' eternal goal has been holding of Constituent Assembly election and declaring Nepal a republic. They now want abolition of monarchy to be delinked from the election and instead get interim Parliament to declare a republican state through a simple majority. Mr Koirala has stuck to the provision of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement according to which the fate of the monarchy was to be decided in the first sitting of the Constituent Assembly. In the run-up to the election this is likely to become the bone of contention between Maoists and other Left parties and the Nepali Congress though a proposal has been accepted to keep the King at bay.

The Maoists may have given up the gun but their unguided missile of mass mobilisation is the Young Communist League (YCL), many of whom are unregistered PLA. Maoist street power is quite formidable as frequent clashes between YCL and police have shown. This is further tarnishing the image of Home Minister KP Sitaula who has been disparagingly called Minister in Waiting to the Maoists. The depredations of the YCL are bound to undermine the reputation of the Maoists in the upcoming election.

The election was to be held in June but for a variety of reasons, it has been postponed to November though no formal announcement in this regard has been made. Mr Koirala is keeping people guessing on the election date and notification of a republic in order to secure better compliance - and certainly greater accountability, now that they are part of Government - from Maoists on the peace agreement. It was Mr Koirala's idea to lock the Maoists into the political process by inviting them to join the Government against the advice of the Americans and others who had insisted the Maoists first give up their 'bad habits' before qualifying for power-sharing.

To checkmate the Maoists, Mr Koirala has sought to improve the morale and image of the discredited security forces. He knows that in a future crisis they remain both the sword and shield against Maoists and Madhesis. At the same time, the Army's allegiance to the Palace is being systematically rooted out. The Americans and the British - and not the Indians who are equally qualified - are engaged in democratising the security forces and educating them on human rights and clearance of mines and IEDs. With historical links with the Gurkhas, the British have deployed two teams - Security Advisory Group to restructure MoD and make the Army responsive to civil political control; and a Post-Conflict Reconstruction team to rework the MHA and make the police more efficient. There is a red line of sorts prohibiting the use of the Army till the election. A matching number of Army soldiers and weapons as was done for the Maoists has been put beyond use.

With Mr Koirala in charge, things are not as bad and disorderly as they appear from Delhi or Washington. Both the peace and political processes are on track. A great deal of work has to be done for the election - from finalising voters' lists to deciding on the model to be followed to passing Bills in Parliament and raising auxiliary forces for its conduct.

Election apart, the most serious problem confronting the Government is the six-month old stalemate in the Terai where three separate forces have raised their flag - the Terai Maoists who broke away from the mainstream two years ago and are split into two groups, the Madhesi Jan Adhikar Forum (MJF) and the indigenous Tharus. The most powerful of these is MJF. Its demand for autonomy, proportional representation and fresh delimitation has been accepted but formal negotiations have not started. Every other day a bandh is declared, paralysing land-locked Nepal's strategic underbelly and communications hub. Terai's contiguity with lawless Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar makes the threat more ominous. It has the potential of turning into a Pahari-Madhesi conflict.

With no external monitors in Nepal the indigenous political process is creeping forward. It requires outside support but without anyone fishing in troubled waters. People like US Ambassador James Moriarty are necessary and important to paste warnings on the Maoists. So are the Sitaram Yechuris - to mind the Maoists. And there is need for a Nitish Kumar - who has resolutely refused to dabble in Nepal politics - for the Terai. Colombo can take a leaf from Kathmandu's book on power-sharing.

source: The Pioneer, May 30, 2007