Nepal poll delay may cause trouble

Indrani Bagchi

NEW DELHI: The delay in announcement of dates for constituent Assembly elections in Nepal may make it easier for the Maoists to go back to their wild ways. The Koirala government is hedging on declaring the elections, which is key to establishment of a more democratic Nepal. This has given Maoists the opening to turn the tables on the government. In this, the Maoists have help from the Left, but the seven-party alliance is still looking for ways to give the monarchy a toehold in any future arrangement. According to sources, this is rooted in the fact that many in the interim Nepalese government fear elections. While India is trying to push the government towards a decision, it's still willing to let the government look for ways to give the discredited monarchy some space.

It's not going down well with the Maoists, whose agitation on conditions of the militias' camps are a sign of deeper dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, the younger Maoists, many members of the Youth Communist League, have returned to looting and extortion in the provinces. In fact, as things are turning out, the onus of keeping the Maoists on the straight and narrow path belongs to the seven-party alliance (excluding the Maoists). The Maoists will be good only as long as the others are playing by the rules. This, said sources here observing developments in Nepal, is both good and bad. Good, because it keeps the democratic government on its toes and prevents it from doing the typical South Asian thing of promising governance and rarely delivering. But, bad, because it could, given the Maoists' past record, give them an inordinate handle on the government.

It's a concern shared by international conflict-resolution groups like the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG). In its report, ICG says that while Nepal's Maoists have accepted multi-party democracy and have lost their appetite for all-out war, they could still resort to physical confrontation if the peace process stagnates. A year after King Gyanendra was forced out, Maoists were in the government. The compromise from their military stance has brought them benefits and power of being in legitimate control. These advantages need to percolate down to cadres in the provinces, many of whom have given up their arms. This is where, say sources in India, the Maoist leaders bear the responsibility of managing expectations and explaining the democratic process to cadres more comfortable with the gun. "Making the political process work is up to other actors as much as the Maoists," says Rhoderick Chalmers of ICG. "If the mainstream parties are committed to the peace agreement and keep their side of the bargain, Maoist leaders will find it much easier to persuade their followers that compromise is the best way forward."

Source: The Times of India, May 21, 2007