Terai crisis may delay elections

The continuing crisis in Nepal’s Terai region poses a serious challenge for holding of timely elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA). The week-long general strike called by the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), an alliance of three Terai parties, Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF), Terai-Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP) and Sadbhawana Party (SP) has only aggravated the situation. The UDMF has been pressurising the government to address six of its major demands, including, a separate Madesh province with right to self-determination. They threatened to boycott elections if their demands are not met. Subsequently, the Federal Republican Front (FRF), an alliance of ethnic groups in eastern hills has launched agitations pressuring for their demands. Apparently, the two separate agitations is Terai, has raised serious doubts of holding the elections on stipulated time.

The strike has adversely affected normal life in the region and Kathmandu valley. Many of the industries located in Terai have closed down due to shortage of raw materials. Most of the educational institutions have shut down and transport remained off road. The supply of basic necessities has been largely affected due to blockade of vehicular movement. There is an acute shortage of fuel and this impacted vehicular movement in Kathmandu. There are also stray incidents of violence and clashes reported between security forces and demonstrators in different parts of Terai.

The FRF’s acceptance to sit for talks has given some respite to the government. The government tried hard to strike a deal with UDMF leaders to hold elections on time. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Seven Party Alliance (SPA) leaders invited UDMF leaders for talks. This week, a series of meetings took place between UDMF and SPA leaders to find a political outlet. The government assured UDMF leaders that elections will address most of their grievances. Initially, the Madhesi leaders responded positively to government’s offer. However, the talks did not yield any results and the UDMF decided to continue with their agitations. Though, the government and other parties are gearing up for elections but the security and election scenario in Terai does not look favourable. Even, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP-Nepal) has decided to boycott the April 10 election. It is obvious that elections will not take place if, the Terai parties continue with their agitations and security situation does not improve.

Source: South Asia Weekly, February 24, 2008

India reiterates support for Nepali elections

India reiterated her support to Nepal for holding timely elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA) and expressed confidence that the elections would be held on April 10, 2008. Spelling out her position India also stated that it does not support any type of secessionist movement in Nepal. Rather India wants to support Nepal in her attempts to accomplish her democratic goals. In a goodwill gesture and to express solidarity to the Nepali government, the Indian National Congress (INC) party, key constituent in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) sent a four member high-level delegation to Nepal. The delegation was led by Divijay Singh, accompanied by Veerappa Moily, Dr Shakeel Ahmed and Jitin Prasada. The delegation was assigned the task to take stock of political situation in Nepal and to extend India’s support to the Nepali people.

In Kathmandu, the delegation met with the Nepali Congress (NC) President and Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, Home Minister Krishna Prasad Situala, Minister of Peace and Reconstruction R C Poudel, Speaker of House, Chief Election Commission CEC), senior leaders of all political parties including the Maoists, leaders of agitating Terai parties and civil society representatives. The delegation extended all possible support for timely election. India also offered to mediate between the Nepali government and agitating groups in Terai, if both parties agreed to it. India hopes that the demands of the Madhesis and other agitating groups to be addressed within the framework of agreed principles.

Over the years, India has played a crucial role in assisting the Nepali government and parties in resolving political problems. During times of crisis and confusion it has been able to broker peace between conflicting parties. Thereby, India will continue to remain a major player in Nepal.

However, unfolding of events, deepening political crisis and eruption of violence in Terai remains a serious concern for India. It is concerned over the deteriorating security situation in Terai which might impinge upon India’s own security in states along the India-Nepal border. Besides, it is apprehensive that if the elections are delayed further the country will experience more chaos.

Source: South Asia Weekly, February 17, 2008

Maoist’s making tactical move

The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) is making desperate attempts to pressurise the Nepali government and to intimidate political rivals before the April 10 elections. Last week, in a major political decision, the Maoist party announced the revival of the United Revolutionary People's Council (URPC) people’s government. The Maoists re-constituted URPC central committee and appointed senior leader Dr Baburam Bhattarai as convener and Krishna Bahadur Mahara and Dev Gurung as deputy-conveners.

On February 6, Maoist party held a meeting of the URPC and decided to revive the people's government and resolve people’s problems at the district and local level. The Maoists claim that this will assist in holding of smooth elections and also extend support in development related works. Subsequently, the Maoists also announced to initiate model joint development projects in eleven autonomous regions.

According to the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) signed between the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and Maoists in November 2006, the Maoists had agreed to dissolve their parallel government. The recent announcement of reviving local government is a gross violation of previous peace agreements. The Maoists decision has also drawn criticism from several quarters. All major political parties strongly reacted to it and raised suspicion over the Maoists move. The parties termed the decision as violation of the peace accord and other understandings signed in the past. The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) assisting in managing the arms and monitoring peace process termed the decision violation of earlier accords and questioned the rationalization behind it.

Over a period of time, the Maoists have lost their popular support base across the country and there is a growing realization that they may fair badly during the elections. Thereby, the Maoists are attempting to maneuver the local government by reviving their local body. Though, the Maoists have rhetorically stated to cooperate and participate in elections but their recent move has left scope for suspicion about their sincerity towards the peace process and elections.

Source: South Asia Weekly, Febryary 10, 2008

King Gyanendra breaks long silence

Paul Soren

Finally, emerging from a long isolation, King Gyanendra spoke out his mind. He said his silence was not a sign of withdrawal or defeat but action. He argued that he remained silent so that the peace accord signed between the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) government and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist) could succeed. Last year, in a significant decision, the SPA government and Maoists had stripped the King of all his executive powers, privileges and seized all his royal properties.

On January 30, in an informal interview with Hari Lamsal, editor of a vernacular Nepali weekly Rastra Bani, the King said the Nepali people have a large heart and can accommodate all Nepalis including the monarchy. He also refuted rumors of fleeing the country and asserted that the Nepali people were aware of the significance of the institution of monarchy and will not undermine it. In his interview, King Gyanendra urged people to gauge the current political situation in the country and said they must peak out rather than keeping quiet.

Interestingly, the King claimed to have reached a secret understanding with the political parties. He declined to provide full details about the deal but said the parties know about it and if it didn’t work out then he will come out in public. The King’s statement at this juncture is a calculative move; he is testing the waters and gauging people’s reactions. Interestingly, some section of the Nepali people, pro-monarchy parties and some political leaders are also in support of the institution of monarchy in some form or the other. Recently, the Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA) group carried out a countrywide survey and reported that over 49.3 percent of Nepalis supported the continuation of the institution of monarchy in some form in the new set-up. Are these developments an indication that monarchy might just come to stay in Nepal, albeit only a shadow of the glorious past?

Source: South Asia Weekly, February 2, 2008

All attention on the Army

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Chiran Jung Thapa

Rookmangud Katawal
Once again, the Army has become the centre of attention. First, it was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rookmangud Katawal's salvo against the integration of the Maoist rebels that caused a stir. Then immediately following his remarks, the Maoists accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." And now, the hottest debate underway is about the idea of mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative Constituent Assembly elections (CA).

It was the COAS' non-accommodative remarks that started the wave. Hinting at the issue of Maoist integration into the Army, General Katawal had strongly opined that no politically indoctrinated individual or group should be inducted into the national army. While the Prime minister and most other political leaders concurred with Katawal's sentiments, the Maoist boss - Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda lambasted Gen. Katawal questioning his authority to make such remarks on integration.

But the fussing did not stop there. The Maoist retorted by making an even more sensational allegation. Dahal and his second-in-command - Baburam Bhattarai accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." Dahal has even claimed that the foreign powers were hatching a conspiracy to install a military-backed government like in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Repeatedly, Maoists have proved themselves to have mastered the art of crying wolf. But, some reckon that their allegation could possibly hold some semblance of merit this time around.

The element that has provided some weight to the Maoist allegation is the induction of Sujata Koirala (the daughter of the Prime minister) into the cabinet. Ms Koirala was recently appointed as a minister without portfolio. Given her ailing father's dwindling abilities, many reckon that she is taking charge of his portfolios - which happens to include defence. And it is said that her relationship with the Army top brass has warmed up quite a bit in recent times. Apparently, she was also in Delhi at the same time when Gen. Katawal was there. These turn of events added weight to the Maoists’ claim that her lucid preference for constitutional monarchy has resonated well with the Army top brass and a “democratic coup” is in the offing.

But even before the dust settled, Army was again dragged into the limelight. This time, it was about mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative elections. Although the Army has remained tight-lipped over the issue, all divisional commanders were recently called into Headquarters to discuss the issue. As for the political leaders, they have been voicing their preference to mobilize the Army almost on a daily basis.

The Army has become the primary choice for the security provision because it is still the largest and the strongest security apparatus in the country. At a time when the security situation has deteriorated critically and that the other security apparatuses have become utterly debilitated, Army remains the only robust hope for the purpose.

Army's power
Perhaps the main reason why the Army has received so much attention is because of its undeniable power. A recent report, released by the Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG), positions the Army as the most powerful institution in Nepal. There is more than a grain of truth in ICG's assessment. With a total strength of six divisions comprising of 95,000 personnel, the Army is certainly the largest and the most powerful public institution.

The Army derives its power not just from the sheer numbers, but also from the public faith in the institution. According to the most recent nationwide survey titled "Nepal's contemporary situation" conducted by Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen, the Army enjoys the highest public approval rating amongst the primary government institutions (legislative parliament, Cabinet, Civil service, Nepal Police, and Judiciary). Even the NGOs, Civil society, and Human rights activists’ were unable to override Army’s approval ratings.

Another opinion poll conducted by Nepalnews/Nepali Times had yielded similar results. In response to the poll question, "In light of the recent developments what is your opinion of the Nepal Army?”, 79% of the respondents indicated that they held the army in positive light.

The public’s faith on the Army stems mainly from its unfaltering discipline and cohesiveness. Unlike the blatantly brazen violations of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) committed by its signatories, the Army has strictly abided to all its terms and conditions. And the Nepali people have taken notice to this fact. Also, until date, the Army has remained remarkably subservient to the Transitional Governing Authority’s (TGA) authority and staunchly adhered to the constitution. In stark contrast to the fissiparous political parties that have all endured splits at least once in their political history, the Nepal Army has remained intact and very loyal to its chain of command too.

It is also the financial capability that has provided the Army with an additional oomph. Not only does it receive a budget allotment from the government, but it also earns a substantial amount from the UN Peace keeping operations (PKO). As the fifth largest troop contributor, the amount the Nepal Army rakes in from the PKOs is almost equal to the amount it receives from the national budget. One estimate even has it that about thirty percent of the capital circulating in Nepal's financial markets comes from the Army's funds.

But the variable that makes the Army so potent and powerful is undoubtedly its fighting prowess. Despite having fought an onerous insurgency for years, the Army still appears indefatigable. Although some have denigrated the Army for its inability to crush the insurgency, others have credited the institution for preventing a complete military takeover by the rebels. Many political pundits also believe that it was primarily the Army’s unyielding resilience that compelled the rebels to shift their strategic gears and opt for the Delhi compromise.

In the transitional period, analysts reckon that the Army has actually increased its potency. Pointedly, the number of personnel in the Army stands at its peak. Training has been made more frequent and more rigorous. It is even believed that it has greatly strengthened the capability of its special forces which comprises of one airborne battalion and one Ranger battalion.

Even more tellingly, the previously throttled supply of military hardware has resumed. The COAS' recent trips to India and China are believed to have revitalized the military ties. Presumably, COAS’ trips have opened more doors for military hardware procurements. Some Nepali news agencies have even reported sightings of two US Air Force C17 Globemasters, delivering a large consignment arms and ammunition to the Army at Tribhuvan International Airport. In sum, what makes the Army irrefutably powerful is a combination of pubic faith, financial capability and its fighting prowess.

Army's impending role
Today, most eyes rest on the impending role of the Army. Will the Army take the risk of absorbing the rebels? Will it completely severe its conjugal ties with the institution that is attributed for its naissance? Will it be mobilized to provide security for the putative elections? And more importantly, what would happen if it tilted in favour of one political force?

It remains to be seen as to how the Army’s role will play out. But, one thing is unmistakably certain: the Army is greatly perturbed by the rising insecurity and especially alarmed by the eroding state sovereignty. As it considers itself ordained with the task of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is easily discernable why the downward spiral trend has been unsettling.

But more importantly, it has seemingly sensed its inevitable role. It has detected that the burden of cleaning up the political slag will once again be heaped on its shoulders. Either by being mobilized to provide security for the elections or deployed against the anti-establishment elements, it foresees itself springing into action sooner or later.

The Army, however, faces another formidable task as well. For the Army, more challenging than defusing the stray UXOs (unexploded ordinances) and IEDs (improvised explosive devices), will be the task of striking a balance between its historical institutional values and forces of modernity. Since other political forces have harped about the institution's conjugal relationship with the Monarchy, it has had to repeatedly counter these jaundiced outlooks. But by conforming to the universal norms like human rights, democratization and operating under a civilian authority, it is increasingly dispelling most doubts.

At a time when pervasive threats are undermining the existence of the State, however, many believe that it would be foolhardy for the Army to overlook the significance of its entrenched historical values and ties.

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Source: Nepalnews, February 25, 2008