All attention on the Army

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Chiran Jung Thapa

Rookmangud Katawal
Once again, the Army has become the centre of attention. First, it was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Rookmangud Katawal's salvo against the integration of the Maoist rebels that caused a stir. Then immediately following his remarks, the Maoists accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." And now, the hottest debate underway is about the idea of mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative Constituent Assembly elections (CA).

It was the COAS' non-accommodative remarks that started the wave. Hinting at the issue of Maoist integration into the Army, General Katawal had strongly opined that no politically indoctrinated individual or group should be inducted into the national army. While the Prime minister and most other political leaders concurred with Katawal's sentiments, the Maoist boss - Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda lambasted Gen. Katawal questioning his authority to make such remarks on integration.

But the fussing did not stop there. The Maoist retorted by making an even more sensational allegation. Dahal and his second-in-command - Baburam Bhattarai accused the Army of plotting a "democratic coup." Dahal has even claimed that the foreign powers were hatching a conspiracy to install a military-backed government like in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Repeatedly, Maoists have proved themselves to have mastered the art of crying wolf. But, some reckon that their allegation could possibly hold some semblance of merit this time around.

The element that has provided some weight to the Maoist allegation is the induction of Sujata Koirala (the daughter of the Prime minister) into the cabinet. Ms Koirala was recently appointed as a minister without portfolio. Given her ailing father's dwindling abilities, many reckon that she is taking charge of his portfolios - which happens to include defence. And it is said that her relationship with the Army top brass has warmed up quite a bit in recent times. Apparently, she was also in Delhi at the same time when Gen. Katawal was there. These turn of events added weight to the Maoists’ claim that her lucid preference for constitutional monarchy has resonated well with the Army top brass and a “democratic coup” is in the offing.

But even before the dust settled, Army was again dragged into the limelight. This time, it was about mobilizing the Army to provide security for the putative elections. Although the Army has remained tight-lipped over the issue, all divisional commanders were recently called into Headquarters to discuss the issue. As for the political leaders, they have been voicing their preference to mobilize the Army almost on a daily basis.

The Army has become the primary choice for the security provision because it is still the largest and the strongest security apparatus in the country. At a time when the security situation has deteriorated critically and that the other security apparatuses have become utterly debilitated, Army remains the only robust hope for the purpose.

Army's power
Perhaps the main reason why the Army has received so much attention is because of its undeniable power. A recent report, released by the Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG), positions the Army as the most powerful institution in Nepal. There is more than a grain of truth in ICG's assessment. With a total strength of six divisions comprising of 95,000 personnel, the Army is certainly the largest and the most powerful public institution.

The Army derives its power not just from the sheer numbers, but also from the public faith in the institution. According to the most recent nationwide survey titled "Nepal's contemporary situation" conducted by Sudhindra Sharma and Pawan Kumar Sen, the Army enjoys the highest public approval rating amongst the primary government institutions (legislative parliament, Cabinet, Civil service, Nepal Police, and Judiciary). Even the NGOs, Civil society, and Human rights activists’ were unable to override Army’s approval ratings.

Another opinion poll conducted by Nepalnews/Nepali Times had yielded similar results. In response to the poll question, "In light of the recent developments what is your opinion of the Nepal Army?”, 79% of the respondents indicated that they held the army in positive light.

The public’s faith on the Army stems mainly from its unfaltering discipline and cohesiveness. Unlike the blatantly brazen violations of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) committed by its signatories, the Army has strictly abided to all its terms and conditions. And the Nepali people have taken notice to this fact. Also, until date, the Army has remained remarkably subservient to the Transitional Governing Authority’s (TGA) authority and staunchly adhered to the constitution. In stark contrast to the fissiparous political parties that have all endured splits at least once in their political history, the Nepal Army has remained intact and very loyal to its chain of command too.

It is also the financial capability that has provided the Army with an additional oomph. Not only does it receive a budget allotment from the government, but it also earns a substantial amount from the UN Peace keeping operations (PKO). As the fifth largest troop contributor, the amount the Nepal Army rakes in from the PKOs is almost equal to the amount it receives from the national budget. One estimate even has it that about thirty percent of the capital circulating in Nepal's financial markets comes from the Army's funds.

But the variable that makes the Army so potent and powerful is undoubtedly its fighting prowess. Despite having fought an onerous insurgency for years, the Army still appears indefatigable. Although some have denigrated the Army for its inability to crush the insurgency, others have credited the institution for preventing a complete military takeover by the rebels. Many political pundits also believe that it was primarily the Army’s unyielding resilience that compelled the rebels to shift their strategic gears and opt for the Delhi compromise.

In the transitional period, analysts reckon that the Army has actually increased its potency. Pointedly, the number of personnel in the Army stands at its peak. Training has been made more frequent and more rigorous. It is even believed that it has greatly strengthened the capability of its special forces which comprises of one airborne battalion and one Ranger battalion.

Even more tellingly, the previously throttled supply of military hardware has resumed. The COAS' recent trips to India and China are believed to have revitalized the military ties. Presumably, COAS’ trips have opened more doors for military hardware procurements. Some Nepali news agencies have even reported sightings of two US Air Force C17 Globemasters, delivering a large consignment arms and ammunition to the Army at Tribhuvan International Airport. In sum, what makes the Army irrefutably powerful is a combination of pubic faith, financial capability and its fighting prowess.

Army's impending role
Today, most eyes rest on the impending role of the Army. Will the Army take the risk of absorbing the rebels? Will it completely severe its conjugal ties with the institution that is attributed for its naissance? Will it be mobilized to provide security for the putative elections? And more importantly, what would happen if it tilted in favour of one political force?

It remains to be seen as to how the Army’s role will play out. But, one thing is unmistakably certain: the Army is greatly perturbed by the rising insecurity and especially alarmed by the eroding state sovereignty. As it considers itself ordained with the task of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it is easily discernable why the downward spiral trend has been unsettling.

But more importantly, it has seemingly sensed its inevitable role. It has detected that the burden of cleaning up the political slag will once again be heaped on its shoulders. Either by being mobilized to provide security for the elections or deployed against the anti-establishment elements, it foresees itself springing into action sooner or later.

The Army, however, faces another formidable task as well. For the Army, more challenging than defusing the stray UXOs (unexploded ordinances) and IEDs (improvised explosive devices), will be the task of striking a balance between its historical institutional values and forces of modernity. Since other political forces have harped about the institution's conjugal relationship with the Monarchy, it has had to repeatedly counter these jaundiced outlooks. But by conforming to the universal norms like human rights, democratization and operating under a civilian authority, it is increasingly dispelling most doubts.

At a time when pervasive threats are undermining the existence of the State, however, many believe that it would be foolhardy for the Army to overlook the significance of its entrenched historical values and ties.

Being one of the two primary institutions that founded the Nepali State, the Army bears a moral, historical, and institutional obligation to salvage the faltering state. Now, the question remains: when and with which partnership will the Army act?

Source: Nepalnews, February 25, 2008

Pragmatism Must Prevail

The much-awaited parley between the government and the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), an alliance of the Terai Madesh Democratic Party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Nepal Sadhbhawana Party (Mahato), failed to yield the expected results the other day. The people who were eagerly waiting for the fruitful outcome of the meeting throughout Friday were once again disappointed when the media reported that the meeting ended inconclusively. The people, badly hit by the indefinite closure called by the UDMF from 13 February and curfews across the Terai, had expected that the meeting would end their woes and pave the path for the constituent assembly elections as they knew well that both sides had done adequate homework before sitting at the table. But it could not happen as there was no agreement on the UDMF�s demand for �one Madhesh, terai, one province�, which is impractical and against the national integrity. With the inconclusive outcome of the meeting, the Nepali people as well as the economy of the country are sure to suffer more. The movement of people and essential goods like fuel and food has already been affected throughout the country by the indefinite bandh. The serpentine queues of vehicles in front of the petrol pumps are a common sight in the valley. Moreover, the failure of the meeting has put the entire peace process at risk as it would be incomplete without holding the CA polls in the absence of peace in the Terai or in any part of the country. This has created some amount of uncertainty. If the seven political parties and the UDMF do not sort out the outstanding issue immediately, there is a danger that the CA polls, the process of which is already underway, might have to be postponed possibly for the third time. Therefore, UDMF should be more serious about the safe and bright future of the country and give up the demand which the present interim government cannot fulfill. It wold be the most logical step in order to free the nation from the present chaotic situation. No one should forget that dialogue is the best weapon to arrive at a solution to any problem. At the same time no one can compromise on national integrity and the wellbeing of the people at large. It is time that flexibility be resorted to in taking the country on the forward looking path in the interest of the people and the country.

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

Strike, Scarcity Linger RJP

Ritu Raj Subedi

Life in the capital city and elsewhere is becoming more difficult with the acute shortage of fuels, increasing load-shedding and skyrocketing prices of essential commodities. Crisis triggered by the short supply of POL products and irregular electricity has triggered other problems: dwindling water in the taps and chaotic transport services. Power cut has hampered the water supply body to pump out groundwater and distribute it. Absence of cooking gas and kerosene has made the condition of housewives pathetic. Travelling in the public transport equally offers one with harrowing experiences. The widespread shortage of everything is a glaring example of the failure of current governance system in the transitional period. Despite this unbearable situation, the public has not revolted against the government. This sense of greater endurance is a testimony of Nepalese for the greater cause of the nation, namely the constituent assembly elections.Legitimacy It is common knowledge that the existing fuel crisis has been unleashed by the Terai bandha that was called less than two months ahead of the CA polls. At this time, any activity that obstructs the polls process can be interpreted as anti-election move. The legitimacy of the incumbent government largely rests on its capacity to hold the elections as scheduled. However, the alarming thing is the demand of the agitating groups to establish a separate Terai province. This disruptive demand must have sent a chill down the spines of the people and forced them to be patient at the time of crisis because no genuine Nepali can accept such a demand. To meet this key demand, the Terai groups are giving continuity to closures across the southern belt crippling general life from east to west. Whatever the outcome of the negotiation between the government and the UDMF, the strike has created doubts over the election. At the same time, the move of UDMF has ironically consolidated the unity of Seven Party Alliance (SPA). The three major parties � Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist �,which are often engaged in squabbling over trifle issues, have evoked a unified and coherent voice in addressing the Terai issues. The chiefs of the three parties have discussed the Terai�s problems and held common stance on the matter. The SPA unity is vital to conduct the polls and subsequently to draft a new constitution. Many have raised eyebrows on the moves of the Front when its leaders defied the government�s call to solve the issue through talks and issued conflicting remarks regarding the election. On one hand they claim the Terai strike has been organised to make the CA polls a success. On the other, they argue the CA polls can�t be held until their demands are met. The contradictory statements have cast doubt over the sincerity of Madhisi leaders in backing the resolve of the nation to hold the polls that will formally abolish monarchy, restructure the state and institutionalise the federalism. Giving a sudden U-turn, Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP), a pro-palace group, decided not to participate in the elections on the pretext of the ongoing Madhesh agitation. The dramatic move by its chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa has taken all by surprise. This has generated questions: Does his step support the ongoing political process or has a negative connotations? Is he a genuine sympathiser of Madhesi people? What did he actually do for the welfare of Madhesis when he was the prime minister several times? He led the governments under the Panchyat system for years that often played pahades against madhesis. Divide and rule was the mantra of the panchayat regime. Thapa was its skilful executer. Known as �a pancha in crisis,� Thapa, in the capacity of the then prime minister, earned notoriety when his government allegedly rigged Nepal�s first referendum in favour of partyless panchayat regime in the late 80s. To this end, But, the move of ex-soft pancha at the crucial hour of Nepalese politics will only help those waiting to fish in troubled waters. ChallengesIf there were any connection between Thapa�s poll boycott and UDMF�s refusal to register its closed list of candidates at the EC office for the proportional election, it will be a wake-up call for the SPA that there are formidable challenges on the path of the CA polls. Amidst the widespread uncertainty, over three dozens political parties have submitted their closed list to the EC. This has certainly aroused the hope that CA polls process will go on as scheduled and meet the key deadlines. Realising the gravity of situation, the EC has extended the period of submitting the closed list by today. By participating in the polls, Madhesh will not lose anything but strengthen its position through the restructuring of the state.

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008

SPA, UDMF finally reach deal

KATHMANDU, Feb 25 - The government and the protesting United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) struck a crucial deal Monday morning ending the 12-day Madhes movement and clearing the deck for Constituent Assembly elections slated for April 10.
The two sides reached compromise on the key UDMF demand - One Madhes One Pradesh - which they said would be decided through the Constituent Assembly. They have agreed to form autonomous Madhes state and other autonomous states.
However, both sides were struggling till 3 am Monday on proper words to be mentioned in the draft.
"We have agreed on autonomous Madhes state. But we are still discussing proper words to reflect the desire of Madhesi people regarding the autonomous Madhes state," said Hridayesh Tripathi, a Madhesi leader, who was present during the meeting, held at prime minister's residence, Baluwatar.
The government and UDMF have also agreed to recognize all those killed in the course of the Madhes movement last February as martyrs and provide their families with proper compensation.
They have agreed to amend the Election Commission Act, which provisions that any political party which secures at least 20 percent result or more under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system must prepare an inclusive list of candidates for the proportional electoral system.
"We have agreed to increase the provision from 20 to 30 percent," said Tripathi. The UDMF had demanded that the provision should be increased to 50 percent.
He said the final draft of the agreement will be ready by Monday morning.
Jayaprakash Gupta, coordinator of Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF), a constituent of the UDMF, said, "It is a big setback to tarai movement because the agreement is not constitutionally binding."
He said the government didn't agree to incorporate the issue in the constitution. "The Constituent Assembly will not have legal powers to recognize the tarai as autonomous Madhes state," he said.
He said the government also refused to make group recruitment of Madhesi people in the Nepali Army.
The UDMF had called an indefinite strike in the tarai from February 13 demanding that the government fulfill their six-point demand.
Earlier today, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and Maoist Chairman Prachanda had held a separate meeting at Baluwatar and reiterated their commitment to conduct the CA poll on April 10.
The three leaders had also agreed to persuade UDMF to participate in the CA poll to decide the issue of one Madhes one Pradesh. Following the Baluwatar meeting, UML General Secretary and Maoist Chairman Prachanda held a separate meeting at the UML central office in Balkhu and discussed the issue.
After developments in Kathmandu, the government arranged a helicopter to bring Upendra Yadav, MPRF chairman, from Simara Sunday evening.
Yadav and other Madhesi leaders including UDMF chairman Mahantha Thakur and Sadbhawana Party Chairman Rajendra Mahato held a special meeting at about 11 pm before sitting for a formal meeting with the government at Baluwatar.
Prime Minister Koirala and Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula held negotiation with Madhesi leaders.
Meanwhile, NC leaders Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar and Saratsingh Bhandari have urged the government to settle the Madhes issues soon. In a press statement, jointly issued Sunday, the leaders said the CA poll is not possible without addressing the issues of Madhesi political parties. The leaders, however, are not so clear on the issue of one Madhes, one Pradesh.
Similarly, Rastriya Prajantra Party (RPP), in a separate statement, demanded that the government immediately hold a roundtable to address the issues raised by Madhesi, Tharu and other indigenous leaders.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, February 25, 2008

Mockery Of Democracy

Narayan Prasad Wagle

The new threat to democracy does not come from tyrants as they can be fairly distinguished and removed from power by the people. It comes rather from the political groups that pretend to be democratic and keep sucking on the blood of the people. This is a new trend all over the world. As we could see in Pakistan, Musharaf ruled Pakistan in the guise of democracy, which many Pakistanis detested as a military democracy, and it was clearly manifest in the defeat of his allies in the recent election. The Bhutanese government has begun to exercise pseudo democracy to further strengthen the grip of the royal regime over the freedom loving people. TyrannyNepal, as one of the least developed courtiers of South Asia, has shown symptoms of the same disease. With the fall of the Rana regime in 1951, every succeeding ruler claimed to be democratic. Even the tyrannical Panchayat rulers feigned to be democratic, holding some sort of election periodically. They claimed that the democracy it expounded was in consonance with the soil of Nepal. Fortunately, it was dismantled after almost three decades of rule. With the restoration of democracy in 1990, people hoped that their quality of life would improve in a real democracy. However, it is confined to a closed set of elite people, and the benefits of the so-called democracy could not reach the oppressed, the marginalised and the poor. The political parties used democracy to enjoy power. As a result, the country got bogged down in conflicts.With the hope of changing their status from being victims to the sovereign, people came to the streets and defeated the king's ambition of establishing a dictatorial regime. They came to the streets pursuant to the promises of the political parties and the Maoists to correct past mistakes and renounce violence. Nearly two years have passed since the April uprising. The daily lives of the people have become extremely difficult and painful. Violence continues to be perpetrated in the name of the people. The INSEC year book on human rights reports that violent groups in the Terai killed half a thousand people while the government killed nearly three dozens during the period. The government could not prevent the violation of the basic right of the people to live. Rather it became a part of such violation. This clearly shows that the interests of the political groups are very different from those of the people. Otherwise, how could they kill so many people without much hesitation? The senseless general strikes have been a routine feature of the new Nepal. The sufferings these strikes incur on the people are intolerable. They are virtually made prisoners without access to health care, education and other basic needs. Of course, the political groups have the right to demonstrate peacefully for their cause. But do they have the right to kill people for their benefit? It is crystal clear that a group's demands may be supported by a portion of the population. But how can they violate the rights of all other people? In recent times, people have had little access to such basic needs as cooking gas, petrol and kerosene and services like electricity due to the inefficiency of the government compounded by the blockade and senseless general strikes in violation of the basic norms of humanitarian law. As a consequence, essential services like hospital services have also been affected. People who expected law and order, rule of law, better employment opportunities, a favourable business environment, social justice and stability are being hit hard daily. They are being exploited by the political interest groups, some of which are even more accountable to external powers. Some groups are relying on racialism to further their interests, which is clear from the fact that class is not tied with ethnicity while making provisions for the enlistment of the marginalised people. As we know, it is racism and interests of the great powers that create an unending cycle of violence.Compare these developments with the peace loving people of Nepal with so much religious and ethnic tolerance. Some political groups are hell-bent on destroying the assets of the Nepalese people while bringing down their standards of living. As everyone accepts that democracy is for the people, by the people and of the people, the present scenario of Nepal shows that it is against the people, by the elite and feudals and of racism and great power subservience. This is a mockery of democracy, which is more dangerous than tyranny.Illegitimate interestsTherefore, the responsible political parties must act lawfully to reverse this trend if they really want to consolidate democracy in the land of the Buddha. They must refrain from making it just an instrument to legalise their otherwise illegitimate interests and prevent others from doing so. The immediate step in this regard is to hold the Constituent Assembly election, which is a benchmark of democracy

Source: The Rising Nepal, February 25, 2008