Nepal: India’s “Design Next”

Niraj Aryal

Kathmandu, Niraj Aryal: It’s hardly been two weeks Nepal’s Army Chief, Rukmangad Katuwal returned home from the Indian pilgrimage wherein he was reported to have been offered a “red carpet welcome” by the Indian establishment. Reportedly, Nepal’s Army Chief met the Prime Minister, Home Minister, Defense Minister and India’s national security advisor, to name a few in the list of the movers and shakers of India’s politics whom he met during his short stint there, though he was also reported to have traveled to South to get a glimpse of the living Indian deity Sai Baba- whose followers could well be found here in Nepal. More importantly, Katuwal, unsubstantiated though reports, met the outgoing chief of India’s notorious intelligence agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), Ashok Chaturvedi, two times in merely fifteen days, first in New Delhi and the next meet took place right here in Kathmandu, when the later had sneaked into Kathmandu for a four day stint, last week. The RAW chief reportedly, stayed at the Hyatt regency Hotel in Kathmandu.

It could be a mere conjecture only but Katuwal’s return home coincided with the Nepal Army refuting claims made by some newspapers in Nepal. The newspaper reports quoting the Maoists’ leadership had it that talks were on in between the Maoists leadership and the Nepal Army’s high ranking officials to initiate steps towards integrating the Maoists’ militias within its domain. However, to the dismay of the Maoists’ leadership, the NA in its refusal statement held that, “…it was merely a ploy to malign the credentials of the National army”. The question is thus as to whom from the two camps were lying? Obviously, the Maoists who have the habit of making false revelations now and then would be adjudged making fool of the people more so, the media. “But there are proofs of such meets taking place at least three times in the past between the two rivals of by gone era”, said Padma Ratna Tuladhar-the leftist rights activist, talking to a local FM radio station here in Kathmandu, Monday, December 24, 2005.

Now, the point is that if the statement coming form the Army camp is not just a mere conjecture and according to Mr. Tuladhar a false claim, then there must be something underneath. The point here is that such views were being aired by the Maoists’ leadership since long, at least from over a month or so, but the NA statement came only after Katuwal returned home from Delhi trip, obviously a delayed statement. What does this indicate then, perhaps only that India does not want the National Army to unite with the Maoists’ Militias- makes no difference that agreements were made in between the real stakeholders of Nepali politics in the past in regard to the integration of Militias into the National Army? Which, say analysts, the Indian leadership might have aired Katuwal when they met him in India. Obviously, they needed that as well, only because they might have started feeling the brunt of elevating the ranks of the Maoists in Nepali politics and that too at a time when the Militias were possibly, though only limited in theory, being integrated into the Nepal Army. The Militias who have been indoctrinated of the anti-India sentiments by their leadership throughout the rebellion period and even asked to build trenches to fight the real enemy-India (sic Maoists’ leadership), India does not want that to happen either.

Back to Katuwal again, if Indian leadership can talk differently to different Nepali political leadership, it is anybody’s guess that Katuwal too was told something completely different. What the leadership there told Katuwal verbatim is difficult to comprehend but it is for sure that strong “NO” signal to the possible NA-Maoist Militia merger was whispered into Katuwal’s ear. If not, why the NA was claiming that their much publicized meeting with the Maoists’ leadership was false?

To add to the point as to why India does not want NA-Maoist Militias merger, it might also be because India in the past had submitted proposals to then rulers to minimize the size of the security personnel here only to hand over Nepal’s security stakes to India. Such Indian designs only became public after such successive regimes failed to prevail in Nepali politics. Take for instance, what the then Prime Minister Marich Man Singh had told during a mass meet in Kathmandu. Mr. Singh had claimed that India had submitted a proposal to King Birendra for handing over Nepal’s security matters to India, be it the security issues, internal one or external both, if the system of Panchayat was to continue. After few years as Gyanendra-most probably Nepal’s last monarch, took over after King Birendra got killed in an inner family feud, he too was forwarded with a similar proposal which were only but rejected on both the occasions. Gyanendra toeing his brother Birendra’s footstep rejected such an offer, which could have otherwise ensured longer life for his unpopular regime in the country.

The point here is that with the possible integration of the Maoists Militias with the National Army, the strength of the National Army will be enhanced numerically. This, in essence, is what India does not want in any pretext or the other. And that is also against India’s age old doctrine outlined by none other than Jawahar Lal Nehru- India’s first Prime Minister.

Then, all of a sudden and that too close on the heels of Katuwal’s India visit, the outburst of India’s PM Man Mohan Singh against the Maoist rebels operating in India comes. Mr. Singh, otherwise, a lame duck prime minister, making sharp comments against the Maoists even called their movement as the single biggest security threat to his country and also dubbed the Maoist as a "virus".

Singh was addressing a conference on internal security attended by the chief ministers’ of the Maoists affected States in India last week wherein he vowed to take stringent measures against those involved in Naxal activities. However, only few years’ back, Mr. Singh while addressing a similar conference had said the same thing but in the mean time the Naxal movement there only got amplified with the working class exploited more as a result the development indices rose sharply and also unexpectedly.

Now that there are concrete proofs that the Nepal Maoists are indulged in activities aiding their Indian counterparts (so claim Indian media reports), it is only but natural that India would love to see a quick downfall of the Maoists in Nepal. But to the utter dismay of the analysts here, how India proceeds in its “Design Next” in Nepal is difficult to comprehend at least for the moment…however, it is simple to say that as the return of Kingship in Nepal is becoming more and more difficult, the NA might be lured instead in the future to counter the Maoists.

Source: Telegraph Nepal, December 26, 2007

Unstable Nepal poses security threat to India

Centre feels feuding parties in the Himalayan kingdom will precipitate crisis along border

Seema Guha

NEW DELHI: India has officially welcomed Nepal’s decision to hold national elections by April next year, but privately there is serious concern that the Himalayan kingdom’s feuding political parties may not be able to sustain the current arrangement leading to a fresh crisis in its vulnerable eastern border.
Nepal has been a constant cause for worry for India’s policy planners ever since the strain within the political parties surfaced earlier this year. New Delhi realises that an unstable Kathmandu is a major security concern for this country which shares a long and unguarded border with Nepal.

Apart from security, India is not happy with the growing presence of the United Nations in the region and wants the international agency to wind up its mission as soon as possible. Prime Minister GP Koirala has for the moment been able to cobble together a 23-point agreement among the seven warring political parties. In the process, he had to give in to the Maoist demand for the abolition of monarchy by the parliament.
The prime minister and his party had wanted to play by the book and had plans to bring in constitutional changes only after fresh election gave a democratic mandate to Parliament. But the Maoists had walked out of the government and refused to yield ground, leading to the prime minister finally caving in to the Maoists.

Source: DNA, December 26, 2007

Madhes unity

Last week saw an unprecedented consolidation of forces in Madhes. First, it was the declaration of unification by three armed rebel groups—the two factions of Jwala Singh and Bisphot Singh of the Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha and the Tarai Tigers. Then came the announcement of the establishment of the Madhes Liberation Front formed by the merger of the Rajendra Mahato faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi) and Upendra Mahato's Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF). A ground-breaking development took place on Monday with the announcement of a new political front in the tarai. Mahanta Thakur, a senior Madhesi leader of the Nepali Congress, resigned his ministerial position and parliamentary membership to lead the front. One lawmaker each from the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandi Devi), CPN-UML and RPP quit their parties to join hands with Thakur. Many more senior Madhesi leaders from other political fronts are expected to jump on the bandwagon.

The obvious questions are this: How did such a sudden consolidation of forces happen in the tarai? What will its ramifications be? The consolidation of power will definitely augment their influence in the tarai. However, the formation of a front of armed groups is definitely not going to help the taraibasis. It will only make things worse for them. In fact, the political leaders, who were until now associated with different parties, were compelled to do something in order to offset the ever-increasing threat and influence of gun-slinging bands in the tarai. They who have been demanding autonomy and vowing to attain their goals through a peaceful movement will hopefully help the government improve the pathetic law and order situation in the tarai. We hope that both the Tarai Liberation Front and the new front announced by Thakur and others will at least make the tarai livable for people from all regions and castes. However, if these groups get tempted to establish working relations with any armed group, then the tarai situation will turn from bad to worse.

The emergence of new groups is also revenge of the Madhesi leaders against the parties they were associated with. Had the seven-party government acted promptly and addressed the law and order situation and other valid demands, the leaders would not have been forced to form new political fronts. The formation of these new fronts will probably also convince the Maoists that the Madhesi movement was not waged by the NC and the UML just to minimize their influence in the tarai. However, it is yet to be seen if the Maoists can stop their Madhesi leaders from joining one or the other front. The Post believes that the armed groups should be dealt with sternly by the government, but the unarmed and peaceful groups should be allowed to grow as political parties. We hope the peaceful political groups will dissociate themselves from anti-social elements and de-escalate the ethnic acrimony in the tarai.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, December 12, 2007

Nepal is heading for regional polarisation

Paul Soren

The continuing crisis in the Tarai region in Nepal remains a serious challenge for the present interim government and has only been aggravated by recent events when a group of legislators from the Tarai, resigned from the parliament on December 10. This led to further political impasse and uncertainty towards holding of the Constituent Assembly (CA) polls. The senior Nepali Congress leader and Minister for Science and Technology in the present government, Mahant Thakur, considered to be a very close aide of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, along with three other influential Tarai leaders, Hridayesh Tripathi formerly with (Nepal Sadbhawana Party-Anandi Devi), Mahendra Yadav of (Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML) and Ram Chandra Raya of Rastriya Prajatantra Party resigned from the parliament alleging that the government and parties are insensitive and indifferent towards resolving the problems of the Tarai region.

They accused the government of not fulfilling past commitments given to the Madhesi parliamentarians. After resigning, these leaders also announced the formation of a new political outfit in the Tarai. The party would start a fresh round of peaceful agitations to pressure the government to fulfill their demands. Subsequently, five political leaders from Tarai; Sarbendra Nath Sukla of Rastriya Janashakti Party, Anish Ansari, Ram Chandra Kushwaha and Brishesh Chandra Lal of NC and Srikrishna Yadav of UML, followed by resigning from their respective party positions, and accused their parent parties of indifference towards Tarai issues. Moreover, reports suggest that many more leaders and party members from Tarai, holding positions in different parties, are planning to quit their parent parties and join hands to form a new political outfit.

The Tarai problem has its genesis in history where the Madhesis have felt alienated and discriminated in political, social, cultural and economic affairs and have continually been searching for an identity. The Madhesis have become more conscious of their rights post Jana Aandolan II and over time several new political outfits and some underground armed groups have emerged. Though initially the agitations, demanding for federal system with regional autonomy, amendment in interim legislature, rights to self-determination and proportional representation in the CA polls, were peaceful but later became violent. They also seek a legislature that would legislate on behalf of the Madhesis. After initial hesitation, the Madhesi movement gathered strength in unity while the government’s apathy and the political vacuum created in the Tarai, helped. The call to form a new political outfit representing the sentiments of the Tarai could polarise the polity.

A few months ago, a prominent leader from NSP-A (a Tarai political outfit), Rajendra Mahato and Upendra Yadav, Chairman of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum , have already announced the launch of a joint front called Samyukta Madhesi Morcha which announced a joint agitation from end of December. A new and stronger political force in the region can be expected to give a new life to the agitation for a federal set up in the country. A sustained movement will put pressure on Kathmandu to try to solve the problem. Any delay in this would encourage underground armed groups in Tarai and the newly formed Madhes Rakshya Bahini the youth wing of the SMM to resort to violence with its usual consequences in an already unstable situation. Since most of the industries in Tarai have already shut down any further turmoil will force the remaining industries to also close down. More importantly, this will also affect the already shaky peace process and delay the holding of CA polls.

Source: Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, December 12, 2007

Koirala willing to declare Nepal a republic: report

The paralysis gripping Nepal's fragile peace process for nearly three months could be easing with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala finally agreeing to abolish the kingdom's two-century-old institution of monarchy and declare Nepal a republic, according to the Maoists.

Koirala and his Nepali Congress party - so far the major opponents of the Maoist demand that King Gyanendra be sacked immediately through a parliamentary decree - have shown signs of relenting, with the prime minister partially agreeing to the proposal of a republic, the Janadisha daily, the Maoist mouthpiece, reported on Wednesday. After several rounds of parleys, Koirala is now ready to amend the constitution that, though stripping the king of all powers and privileges, left the crown in a state of suspension, decreeing that an election would decide its fate.

Now, however, Koirala is ready to revise the constitution and abolish the crown before the election, as demanded by the Maoists. The rebels had asked the parliament to effect the change, alleging that a free and fair election would not be possible as long as the king remained. Although the majority of legislators supported their demand, the rebels were not able to push it through because they needed two-thirds majority, which eluded them because the Nepali Congress, the biggest party in the house, opposed them. Koirala's capitulation comes with a condition, the Maoist daily said. He is proposing that though Nepal would be declared a republic, the king should not be evicted from his palace immediately. The implementation would start only after the election.

This, incidentally, is also part of the peace formula suggested by former US president Jimmy Carter who visited Nepal last month to bring the warring sides together. It would also get the support of the international community that has been urging the government to hold the election and let it decide the king's fate. However, the daily also said that Maoist chief Prachanda is pushing for the immediate implementation of a republic. While the deadlock on monarchy could be inching towards a consensus, the two parties still remain divided over a second Maoist demand. The rebels also want a fully proportional electoral system, which is likely to improve their electoral chances.

While Koirala was opposing it at first, now he is ready to accept a 40 to 60 compromise in which 60 per cent of the seats would be elected as per the Maoist demand and the rest on the first past the post system, the report said. Earlier, Prachanda had indicated that if the demand for a republic were to be conceded, his party would be flexible about the second. Koirala's thaw was partly due to the growing pressure at home and abroad to reach an understanding with the Maoists and hold the twice-deferred election by April.

A new impetus came after his trusted Minister for Science, Technology and Environment Mohanta Thakur resigned on Tuesday along with three MPs from the Terai plains to form a regional party and push for autonomy in the restive plains. Both the Nepali Congress and the Maoists are concerned at the move, realising their control in the plains is diminishing. Any further delay to hold the polls could spell disaster for them in the Terai, which is emerging as the new x-factor in Nepal's politics.

Source: Hindustan Times, December 12, 2007