Is Nepal's democracy in danger?

Rabindra Mishra

A political crisis in Nepal is set to worsen after the postponement, for the third time, of elections for a Constituent Assembly (CA) that has to draw up a blueprint for the country's future.

Many analysts are doubting if the polls will be held at all.

They also say the latest postponement of the polls will only benefit the monarchy, which is ironic given that all the major parties have agreed on the abolition of the monarchy. The Maoist rebels have been blamed for the postponement of the elections for coming up with two new demands:

• That the monarchy be abolished immediately by the present, interim parliament
• That the CA elections be held on a fully proportional voting system

Both the demands contradicted their earlier agreement with seven political parties who they joined in opposition to King Gyanendra. The postponement of the polls should be viewed against the wider Maoist strategy.

Change

In their days as a guerrilla force, their fundamental strategy was to gain influence in the countryside before surrounding and entering the capital, Kathmandu, for a final strike. A decade of insurgency left them dominating much of rural Nepal. But when the Maoists realised intimidation and violence were less effective in Kathmandu, they changed their strategy. In late 2004, they decided to work with mainstream political parties to further their goals. The strategy received a boost when King Gyanendra sacked the democratic government and took over power in February 2005. Enraged by the king's action, the mainstream political parties, who had in the past refused to collaborate with the Maoists, decided to accept the rebels into their fold. Together, the Maoists and the seven mainstream parties took on the king in a series of street protests in April 2006 that resulted in the king handing back power. In subsequent months, the Maoists became part of the interim parliament and the government. They also went about gaining as much influence as possible in commerce, the media and other areas of public life in the capital. So having established themselves in Kathmandu, they have one final objective left - to capture power.

Pressure

Most analysts agree that the Maoists have little chance of doing this through competitive politics. They have lost much of their influence in the countryside, and are unpopular in the cities. That seems to be why they wanted November's elections put off. In the meantime they will try to pressure other parties to agree to their demands for the immediate ending of the monarchy and for the CA polls to be held under a fully proportional voting system. They have also shown an ability to outwit their opponents in a way that erodes the authority of much of the state. It was the failure of the democratic parties, the king, the army and other security agencies which made the Maoists' journey to the capital possible in the first place. Now they have reached a point where they seem able to put a break on a national objective like holding elections, something that virtually the entire country had agreed on. This, many say, has severely weakened the public's confidence in its legitimate institutions.

Bloodshed fears

Many people have begun to talk about Nepal entering an era of either ultra-rightist (military or military-backed) or ultra-leftist (Maoist) dictatorship. They are not ruling out bloodshed between the army and the Maoists, who have concentrated a large number of their members in Kathmandu. The coming days and months are crucial for Nepal's fragile peace process. So is the special session of parliament on Thursday which will look into various options to address the prevailing crisis. It is understood that the army has already opposed the idea of the current interim parliament declaring Nepal a republic. Sources say the army is also unhappy about Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's Nepali Congress Party's recent decision to vote for the abolition of the monarchy when the Constituent Assembly meets. The Maoists have now hinted that they are ready to compromise on the timing of the abolition of the monarchy. But they look far less likely to compromise on the proportional representation issue. Whatever is decided - and other options are up for discussion - the result could well need amendments to the constitution and relevant electoral laws. From all this mess, it is King Gyanendra who is gaining.

From a position of rock-bottom unpopularity, when he had to give up power in April, 2006, his standing has been gradually picking up - thanks to the chaos and discord among the political parties and Maoists. Some leaders now say that democracy in Nepal is in serious danger. They are arguing that a broader coalition should be formed which would also take into its fold the pro-monarchy forces to stop the country from sliding into dictatorship. But the wider held view is that a final showdown between the army and the Maoists in Kathmandu is more likely than ever. If such a situation arises, nobody knows who will prevail. However, one Indian expert on Nepal, retired Gen Ashok Mehta, believes that Delhi would be prepared to give military help to the government in Kathmandu rather than see the Maoists seizing power by force.

Source: BBC News Service, October 8, 2007

India for legitimate poll process in Nepal

Kathmandu, (PTI): India would support any political system chosen by the Nepalese people as long as it is through a legitimate election process, Indian Prime Minister's envoy, Shyam Saran, said here Friday, stressing full support to the peace process in the Himalayan nation. India would support whatever political system the people of Nepal would decide, Saran said, adding that the best way to get the mandate of the people is through the legitimate means of election.

India regards holding free and fair constituent assembly election of central importance for ensuring lasting peace and multi-party democracy in Nepal," said Saran, who held high-level discussions with a wide range of political leaders including Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, CPN-UML general secretary, Madhav Kumar Nepal, and Maoist chief Prachanda among others.
"In India's view, election is the only way for the people of Nepal to choose their future, including the manner in which they want to be governed," said Saran, a former Indian Foreign Secretary.
The special envoy of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is on a three-day visit to Nepal to assess the political situation and convey the message of the Indian leader after the crucial November constituent assembly elections were postponed.

India remained committed to help the peace process in every way possible to achieve the goal of a democratic, stable and prosperous Nepal," the former Indian Ambassador to Nepal told mediapersons ahead of his departure for New Delhi Friday. Saran's remarks came at a time when the Maoists have walked out of the government, forced the postponement of the polls and registered a motion in the interim Parliament seeking the abolition of the monarchy and adoption of a proportional-based electoral system as precondition for participating in the polls.
Indian envoy Saran said he is "optimistic" that the current political crisis facing Nepal can be resolved on the basis of an understanding among the major political parties.

"There is no reason why the peace process should fail, we should look towards the positive achievements of Nepal made over the past two years," he said. "We would like to see this peace process and electoral process remain on track," Saran said. "The sooner the elections are held, the better it would be for progress of the peace process." He repeatedly stressed that it is the right of the people of Nepal to decide how they want to be governed and what type of political system they want, and the only legitimate way of doing so is holding the Constituent Assembly elections at the earliest. "India will support whatever mandate the people of Nepal will give and the international community believes that election is the only credible way to get the people's mandate," he noted. Saran also stressed that the genuine demands of the Terai region must be addressed while resolving the political issues in the country.

"But we must be able to distinguish between the genuine political demands of the Terai groups and the criminal activities being carried out by some groups taking the advantage of the open border," he said. Nepal's six-party alliance running the interim government has been insisting that a fresh mandate was necessary to decide the fate of the 238-year old monarchy in a legitimate manner. The Maoists and their allies command only 85 seats in the 330 seat parliament and their motion cannot be endorsed without the support of the other parties in the ruling alliance.

Source: The Hindu, Chennai, October 13, 2007

Nepal debates monarchy's future

The interim parliament in Nepal is holding an emergency debate on the future of King Gyanendra.

The meeting is being held at the instigation of former Maoist rebels, who pulled out of the coalition government last month. The Maoists are demanding the immediate abolition of the monarchy. But the governing Nepali Congress party is insisting that a new parliament should first be elected which will decide the future of the royal family. Elections, which were earlier scheduled for 22 November, have now been postponed and no new date has been set for the vote.

Deadlock

"We are confident that our proposal will be adopted by the parliament. We are negotiating with other parties to persuade them to back our proposal," Maoist spokesman Dev Gurung said. Nepal's Home Minister Krishna Prasad Situala said that the government was confident that the crisis will be resolved through the debate in parliament. He said that talks would be held with all parties to reach an agreement. The two sides have been trying to find a solution to the deadlock since the Maoists withdrew from the government. Elections to the constituent assembly were delayed earlier this month after the two sides failed to come to an agreement on the fate of the monarchy. The elections are a key element of a peace deal signed in 2006 that ended 10 years of Maoist insurgency. One of the first tasks facing the new constituent assembly when it is elected is to decide the monarchy's future. But the former rebels now demand a republic be announced before elections are held. Last week, the Nepali Congress announced its support for a republic - but only once elections had been held.

Source: BBC NEWS: October 11, 2007

Prime Minister Who Would Be King

Yubaraj Ghimire

G.P. koirala was arguably the most powerful prime minister the country ever had, going by the powers vested in him. For the past 16 months, he has been acting not only as the country's prime minister, but also discharging all the roles of the head of state. And King Gyanendra has become a political recluse.

Koirala has of late come in for sharp criticism for representing the state in various Hindu religious functions like the kings have been doing for a century in 'Hindu Nepal'. With the country declared secular in May 2007, it was expected that the government or head of state would maintain no direct link with such activities. On September 30, about half an hour after Koirala offered puja to Kumari, known as living Goddess, as head of the state and left the durbar square area, King Gyanendra arrived there without fanfare. He offered puja to Kumari, a tradition the kings have been maintaining for the past 250 years, and returned home. The crowd that booed Prime Minister Koirala when he visited there, greeted the king — something Gyanendra perhaps did not anticipate.

That clearly irked PM Koirala who not only sought an explanation from the chief of army staff a day later, but also ordered that half the army personnel currently deployed in the palace be removed. But many who supported the pro-democracy movement when King Gyanendra assumed absolute power are now fed up with Koirala and refuse to support him on the issue.

In fact, the crowd that hooted him delivered a simple message — Koirala is a prime minister and he should not be acting like a king, at least during religious functions. Nepali society with more than 80 per cent Hindu population, and the rest being Buddhists, Muslims and Christians, still remains a religious society and favours the king or any other individual's right to religion, something that the interim constitution guarantees as a fundamental right. Koirala has been denying that right to King Gyanendra of late.

Gyanendra, despite his unpopularity at the peak with absolute powers, was able to secure lots of sympathy, if not support from the people, when he was literally put under quarantine since February 18 when he issued a customary message in the name of the people on the occasion of Democracy Day. Since then, thrice in the past, the king was denied permission by the prime minister when he expressed his desire to be part of the tradition of the kings. Instead, Koirala took the king's role unto himself.

But what he apparently heard from the chief of army staff on the morning of October 1 must have added to that insecurity. COAS Katawal made it clear that while the Nepal army was a disciplined institution and willing to carry every order of a democratically elected government, it was worried about the complete surrender that the prime minister had made to the Maoists. He also made it clear that the army would honour each and every provision of the interim constitution and the comprehensive peace agreement (CPA), the basis of Maoists joining the interim government, parliament and announcing that they had renounced the politics of violence. The army is unhappy with initiating a deal with the Maoists to become a republic even before the election to the constituent assembly takes place, against the pledge in the interim constitution that the first CA meeting will decide the fate of the monarchy.

With elections unlikely in November given the present political impasse, Koirala not only loses the political but also the mass support that he enjoyed only 16 months ago. His imminent fall now seems triggered by the army's likely non-cooperation as well.

Source: The Indian Experss, October 4, 2007

Stalemate in Nepal

Padmaja Murthy, INFA

Nepal appears to be heading for turmoil once again, with the Maoists quitting the interim coalition Government led by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and threatening to return to the streets if the country was not declared a republic immediately. The first casualty of the Maoists action seems to be the disruption of the year-long peace agreement between the CPN- M and the political parties. With the election process already on uncertainty now looms large on whether the 22 November elections to the Constituent Assembly will go ahead as scheduled. Given the Maoists threat to derail the poll plans. It appears that the Maoists action was dictated by the feedback that they may not get a sizeable share in the seats Assembly and they had started having second thoughts on the entire political process initiated in the last few months. In fact, the Maoists wanted some dramatic shift like the abolition of the monarchy to swing votes in their favour. With the ruling Nepali Congress unwilling to go along with this type of change it has resulted not only in a stalemate between the Party and the Maoists but also put a question mark on the election process.

The genesis of the problem has it roots in the Jan Andolan II of April 2006 which forced King Gyanendra to restore the House of Representatives, dissolved in May 2002.When the House met in late April, it committed itself to holding the elections for a Constituent Assembly and a Government under Prime Minister Koirala was formed. The HOR declared itself a 'sovereign,' 'secular' and 'supreme' body, brought the army under civilian control, dissolved the royal Privy Council and cut the power and privileges of the King. A 25-point Code of Conduct was also drawn up between the Maoists and the Government during the ceasefire period. In November 2006, the Maoist Chairman Prachanda signed a historic deal with the Seven Party Alliance (SPA). The SPA consists of the Nepali Congress, Nepali Congress (Democratic), Communist Party of Nepal (UML), Jan Morcha Nepal, Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, Nepal Sadbhavana Party (A) and United left Front. Among other things, it called for elections to the Constituent Assembly (CA). Having had their way, the Maoists had successfully changed the political agenda in Nepal. Thus began the transition process in Nepal. With a clear goal to hold the Constituent Assembly elections.

The CA so elected would then draft a new Constitution which would transform the socio-politico-economic structure of Nepal, making it both democratic and inclusive. Given the consensus, the CA would also declare Nepal a republic. Prachanda also signed the historic Comprehensive Peace Agreement which declared the end of war that had been going on since 1996 between the Maoists and the Government. The tri-partite agreement on arms management of both the Nepali Army (NA) and the Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) was concluded between the UN, the Government and the CPN-(Maoist). In January this year, an interim Constitution promulgated by the SPA and the Maoists set-up a 330-member interim legislature which included 73 from the CPN (Maoist). The 22-member Cabinet which included 5 Maoist was headed by Prime Minister Koirala. From being branded as terrorists the Maoists were now partners in the Government.

The transition period, so far, has seen instances of great statesmanship and flexibility. Sadly, what stands out is the extreme violence, use of arms, abductions, extortions, killings and rigid stands taken by various groups. Resulting in serious reservations about whether the Constituent Assembly elections would be held at all as scheduled on 22 November 2007. Nepal, a country with a population of over 30 million has more than 100 ethnic/caste groups and over 93 languages. Post Jana Andolan II, many of these ethnic/caste groups - some old and some new are asserting for their rights once again. They believe that unless they have enough representatives elected in the CA, their political space will not be guaranteed which in turn will determine their economic and social space. While the interim legislative Parliament agreed on a mixed electoral system, they are now demanding complete proportional system for the CA elections.

The demand on the nature of federalism and autonomy and self determination varies from group to group. They want assurances on all these aspects before the CA elections are held. What has complicated matters is that these groups, like the Maoist insurgents, have adopted extreme violent means to put forward their demands. The agitations in Terai have become a major cause of concern .The Government held four rounds of talks with the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) but could not reach an agreement on key issues. It has called other agitating groups in the region for dialogue. The Janatantrik Mukti Morcha (Jwala Group) has ordered officials, hailing from the hills to leave the Terai plains, thereby vitiating the already tense atmosphere. Moreover, some of these groups have violent conflicts among themselves and also with the Maoist affiliated Madhesi groups. The Chure Bhawar Ekta Samaj has been demanding security and protection of rights of people of hilly region living in Madhesi region and an autonomous status for Chure Bhawar region.

The Government has held several rounds of negotiations with the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NFIN). It has also agreed to at least one representation of the 59 listed ethnic communities. The NFIN too has climbed down from its demand for a fully proportional representation based elections to the CA. The indefinite bandh called by Sanghiya Limbuwan Rajya Morcha and Khumbuvan Rashtriya Morcha (KRM) continue to paralyse life in eastern districts. There are agitations by the Dalit Civil Society Movement calling for 20 per cent reservation for the Dalit community in the Constituent Assembly. On the other hand the Maoist affiliated Young Communist League is engaging in indiscriminate abductions and torture. Going back on its earlier consensus, the Maoists now want a Republic declared before the CA elections. They are also demanding a fully proportional electoral system and not the mixed electoral system agreed to by them earlier.

The second round of verification of the Maoist combatants and arms by the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) is also facing problems due to non-compliance by the Maoists. In sum, all these issues need to addressed before the Constituent Assembly elections. The agitating groups need to realize that the CA elections will benefit them. For that law and order needs to be maintained. Importantly, the Constituent Assembly elections are a means to an end and not an end in itself. Only when the process of drafting a new Constitution concludes can Nepal be said to be out of the transition period. It is the only real chance of stability in Nepal. Between Jana Andoaln I and Jana Andolan II, the politico-socio-economic agenda of Nepal has permanently and positively changed. Whoever comes to power has to address the legitimate grievances of the marginalized sections of society. The CA elections will institutionalize the gains made so far and take the transition process further. If the civil society in Nepal is any indication, they will choose stability to anarchy. Further with the support from international actors, it is a task which needs to be accomplished.

Source: Central Chronicle, September 24, 2007