Now For The CA Polls

Prem N. Kakkar

THE confusion and uncertainty regarding the constituent assembly (CA) election has ended with the government announcing November 22 this year as the date for holding it. It took a lot of exercise to finally announce the date. This came about after consultations among the leaders of the eight political parties. Though there was some delay in announcing the date, things are now expected to move in high gear.Awareness It is now for all the political parties to visit different parts of the country to create awareness about the importance of the constituent assembly election.

The constituent assembly will draft a new all-inclusive democratic constitution to take the country forward in the mission of creating political stability and emphasising the supremacy of the people.Though the CA polls were scheduled for this month, it could not materialise for various reasons, including lack of time to prepare for the exercise. The Election Commission (EC), too, had requested more time. Now there is adequate time to prepare for the election. However, some election laws have to be approved by the legislature parliament. If this is done, then everything will be set for the polls.

As the election is a new exercise for the country, the political parties must do the needful to make the people aware about the CA polls and its significance. Unity among the eight parties is also of great significance. Though the eight political parties are united at the moment, they will be contesting each other for the CA polls. Though the political parties will be rivals in the CA election, till then unity has to be there to safeguard the achievements that have been made in the past one year. If there are any differences, then they must be resolved through talks.

If this is not done, then the elements that do not want the CA polls will conspire against the gains that have been made.It is also important that the political leaders speak more cautiously instead of blaming a leader or party for anything that goes wrong. Of course, it is still a learning process as we are moving in a new direction.An important development is that talks with the agitating groups are continuing so that a conducive environment can be created for holding the election within the specified timeframe. Everyone realises that the CA polls will bring about radical changes in the political landscape of the country.

Once the election is held in a free, fair and impartial manner, it will be the CA members who will have enormous responsibilities on their shoulders. It is also clear that the CA members can take any decision through a simple majority. In fact, the success of the CA polls calls for the commitment of all the political parties. Now it is time to gear up for the polls, and the coming few months will be crucial.The first meeting of the constituent assembly will decide the fate of the monarchy, so it is unnecessary to dwell on the issue at the moment.

But there are some who are making it an issue at the present time. Even the amendment effected in the interim statute is clear on the point. So, instead of making it an issue, all the parties and leaders should focus on the CA polls and co-operate in maintaining law and order in the country. Only this will create the environment to hold the polls in a peaceful manner. On this Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is committed and has even said that it is his responsibility. But co-operation from all should be forthcoming for the objective to take concrete shape.

Mass participation

For the new exercise that the country is embarking on, there must be a sustained campaign to generate awareness among the people about the election. This will provide the inputs so that massive participation of the people in the election is possible. This is needed to make the polls a grand success.

Presidential Ambition : The Long March Ahead

Ritu Raj Subedi

Maoist chairman Prachanda has sent ripples in Nepalese politics by revealing his ambition to be president of a republic Nepal in two years. The Maoist supremo is confident about the success of his party and his political career when there is overwhelming anxiety among the political heavyweights regarding the future course of Nepal. Prachanda's surety of his future inning into the highest post of the nation sharply contrasts with the existing uncertainty besetting the country in transition.

Ambition

It is not uncommon for any individual to nurture his or her ambition in life. There are different ways of harbouring ambitions. Some hide their ambition and demonstrate it through action while others reveals their inner desire to the public and pursue it accordingly. It is a bit unusual for public figures to declare their ambition. However, in Prachanda's case, one can extract more than a literal meaning from his cocksure statement. By disclosing his intention, he is giving a signal to rival political parties that the Maoists are moving ahead by calculating the algebra of Nepali politics and will surely reach its intended destination. There is no dearth of people who view Prachanda's claim as a saucy remark made only to arouse the enthusiasm of his cadres. Going by the Maoist offensive postures and agenda they have been pursuing ever since they joined competitive politics, there is nothing to be surprised by his stunning revelation.

Can comrade Prachanda be president after two years? In politics, nothing is impossible. Still this hypothetical question further invites a plethora of questions that should be examined in depth. There are quite a few obstacles before he can put himself in the presidential seat. There has first to be a provision in the would-be constitution to be framed by members of the constituent assembly.The first and foremost challenge is the king himself, who must be removed from the scene. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is also currently working as the head of state, but the presidential system will be in place only after the CA polls abolish the kingship with a simple majority. But will the assembly polls take place within the given timeframe? Political leaders and thinkers are not so sure about the fate of the historic polls given the precarious security situation that is getting shakier with a bunch of disgruntled and armed groups continuing with their protests, unlawful activities, killings and abduction of innocent people.Let us presume the CA polls are a grand success with a massive turn out. But the Nepali Congress that is still undecided on the monarchy will not easily swing to the republican camp dominated by the communist forces. Octogenarian Koirala is oscillating between a monarchy and a republic. His temptation to keep the baby king amply suggests that he is not ready to throw the hangover of a ceremonial monarch.

There is a historical background behind Koirala's temptation towards this debilitating institution. When Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi played foul against B. P. Koirala, he broke his long exile in India and returned to Nepal with a reconciliatory approach to establish special rapport with the monarchial institution. Though the palace turned down Koirala's offer and put him behind bars, senior Koirala went on to say: 'My and the king's necks are attached.' Senior Koirala's faith in the ceremonial king has had a deep impact on those groomed under the tutelage of the Koirala family. To clear the deck, the NC leadership must accept republicanism that has already taken its youth wing into its fold. A section of the NC still holds the view that the monarchy is a shield against the rising tide of communists. To destroy the kingship means to restore a Red regime in the country. Pro-palace elements have emphatically raised this logic to pit the NC against the Maoists. And Prachanda has had to allay this fear. Prachanda is not a unanimous figure for Nepalese Leftists parties that are divided into several groups. He has to mend ties with the largest communist block - the CPN-UML - that has been always at odds with the radical outfit. Without riding on the back of the UML, the Maoist chairman cannot fulfil his dream of becoming the president of Nepal. For this, he must stop bullying other Left parties and forge a broader alliance among the communist forces.

Prachandaa must understand that some great communist leaders were unable to fulfil their ambitions in life. When Chairman Mao was sure that he would emerge victorious in the civil war against Chiang Kai-Sheik, he tried to propagate 'Maoism' through American journalist Edgar Snow, but the Soviet leaders never accepted his ideology, which he claimed was a further development of Marxism and Leninism. Snow's famous book 'Red Star on China' that glorifies Mao was banned in Russia. Then he hired a second rate American journalist, Anna Louis Strong, to take his ideas to the global stage. On a visit to Moscow as Mao's emissary, the KGB took her as a CIA agent, and she was nabbed and jailed. She was tortured to death in a KGB cell. Chairman Mao, the political godfather of Chairman Prachanda, never realised his super power programme that aimed at footing his country at par with the US and former Soviet Union. In his last days, Mao was forced to accept a 'climb-down' before Deng Xiaoping and Zhou Enlai whom he denounced as 'capitalist-roaders.'Nepal is economically a dependent state, and without the consent of some major foreign players, no political party can reach the helm of power. One of the formidable challenges that the Maoists face is convincing key donors and those countries that are a part of the political game of the country. The strong Nepali Army will not easily allow the Reds to storm into the hot seat of the nation. Prachanda has to take many power centres into confidence to fulfil his dream.

Statesmanship

He should prove his mettle by healing the wounds of the insurgency that created so many foes. He may be a future hope for a large section of people. But he should demonstrate the qualities of statesmanship and rise above the podium of a politician. He must stop making flippant remarks that undermine his stature. He should be cautious about over exposing himself to the media should the people's appetite be saturated.

Source: The Rising Nepal, June 30, 2007

Adjust fuel prices

The interim government is shamelessly watching the country being hit by the petroleum shortage. It is aware of the constant loss being incurred by the Nepal Oil Corporation. But it has neither found any solution to the crisis nor has it attempted to adjust the petroleum prices so that the country's economy would have breathed a sigh of relief. Perhaps, the government intends to trigger a crisis of petroleum products, especially petrol so that consumers will realize and demand for the hike of petroleum prices. That the government has heavily subsidized the petroleum products needs no explanation for the consumers. However, the fear is that any hike in petroleum prices will trigger a chain reaction. Then again, how long will the government afford such "irregular" supply of petroleum products that is causing adverse effect on the country's economy? Has it given any thought to the country's economy?

A couple of years ago, the government had hiked the petroleum prices to adjust with the prices of crude oil being sold in the international market. The Maoists and others made hue and cry forcing the government to roll back the prices instantly. Ultimately, the country's economy had to pay the price for the roll back. Any decision on the hiking of petroleum prices again would have earned public wrath. Last month, the prime minister met Indian ambassador to Nepal to express his inability to clear the dues owed to Indian Oil Company. He literally begged to ensure uninterrupted supply of petroleum products citing that the country is undergoing a conflict transformation. NOC has to pay 4.5 billion rupees to IOC as the latter has stopped issuing fuel on credit. On the flipside, NOC has constantly run into loss of over 230 million rupees every month.

The import-sale disparity has caused a great stress on the country's economy. The country can no longer afford such irregular supply of oil. NOC imports 1200 kiloliters of fuel per day. And the country needs at least 2000 kiloliters of fuel to meet its daily demand. The problem will not be solved unless the government hikes the petroleum prices bringing them at par with the import prices. But it must deduct some tax imposed on the import of petroleum products to boost the economic activity and prevent untoward reaction. And dues totaling 4.5 billion rupees to be paid to IOC should be cleared to bring in the required quantity of fuel. Any reluctance on the part of the government to adjust prices and ensure "uninterrupted" supply of fuel will cost country's economy dear.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 28, 2007

Interim Plan

Following two days of 'intense' deliberations, the National Development Council, the apex policy-making body of the National Planning Commission (NPC), has finalized a concept paper of the three-year Interim Plan, to be implemented from mid-July. We congratulate the NPC for successfully completing its ritual of formulation of the plan, albeit with certain reservations
Let's first talk on the pros and cons of the plan. It is good that some of the goals of the plan, like achieving an average 5.5 percent economic growth, appears relatively realistic. We believe achieving the growth rate will not be a difficult task should conducive entrepreneurship prevail after the CA polls in November.

However, it is bad that the plan has incorporated some targets that are really ambitious, and difficult to achieve. Like, containing inflation at 5.6 percent seems unrealistic since we all know the government has very little influence on domestic inflation rate. For example, agriculture production, which has the largest weight in the basket of consumer index, is prone to unpredictable fluctuations due to erratic weather, so are its prices. Similarly, in no way can the future price of imported items like petroleum products and its consequent multiplier effects, be simply gauged.

Likewise, lowering incidence of poverty to 24 percent is something difficult to materialize. No doubt, we were able lower a remarkable 11 percentage points in the past. But, keep in mind that that happened in the period of seven years and the NPC this time aims lower poverty rate by seven percentage points within three years, that too at a time when the economy is showing no signs of recovery and growth rate remittance inflow is dwindling. We have reiterated many times in the past what the country lacks at the moment is not a good policy per se, but a sound entrepreneurial environment, which has been rapidly deteriorating in recent months.
Why has foreign investment dried up, and why is additional domestic investment constantly shrinking, despite the fact that borrowing rate is at its lowest and the economy is in excess liquidity condition? Because, the country has no investment environment at all.

Labor unrest, which often carries political agendas rather than labor interests, is at its height. Entrepreneurs have been compelled to compromise with forces outside factories, which has greatly inflated labor costs, thereby eroding competitiveness. We believe that the government should overhaul its failed internal security strategies and place a new and convincing one to improve the law and order situation.

Another important aspect we have raised is that the country desperately needs a powerful body to independently evaluate the implementation of the plan. The institution that formulates plan shouldn't be allowed to evaluate the progress of the implementation. It is shameful that the NPC wasn't able to bring mid-term evaluation of the Tenth Plan on time, which means that the institution failed in bringing timely corrections, which are vital to keep the plan on track by dealing with emerging challenges.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 27, 2007

CA Poll

The eight-party government has finally achieved yet another milestone on the road to sustained peace in the country and the people's aspiration of converting Nepal into a democratic republic. Despite certain hurdles and some crisis of confidence among the ruling parties, the agreement on holding the Constituent Assembly election on 22nd November this year has given forth a positive message. Encouragingly, within 24 hours of announcement of the poll date the country has set its sights on the goal to be achieved in the next five months. It is now the duty of all political parties, civil society, civil servants, security officials and the general public to work towards that goal. The stakeholders, however, should not forget that the situation at present is certainly not congenial for free and fair elections. So the task ahead is not only arduous but also clouded by uncertainty.

This is the first time ever that the Nepali people have an opportunity to decide their own fate, as the new constitution will be drafted by representatives elected by them. The first and foremost condition for free and fair elections is a peaceful environment. The Election Commission is rightly worried about the security situation. It is therefore the duty of the government to settle the issues raised by dissenters and seek their cooperation in holding the elections in a free and fair environment. The situation will not be congenial until and unless representatives of all the political parties are able to canvass in the remotest parts of the country without any fear and intimidation. Unfortunately, in order to achieve that goal the country has to court the Madhesis and the Maoists.

Except for providing 21 days to the Electoral Constituencies Delimitation Commission to review the report it submitted on 12 April, the government has not addressed the demands of the Madhesis. The onus is now on government to persuade them to cooperate and participate actively in the elections so that the dream of building a new Nepal will materialize. The Madhesis should understand that if we fail to hold the CA poll this time, we might see the beginnings of a civil war that could end up dismembering our country into various pieces. The Maoists' case is a bit different from that of the Madhesis. They have to discipline themselves because they are in the government. If the comrades are at all concerned about the existence of this country, they should immediately give up their violent methods of impressing the people through intimidation. They should try to win hearts through peaceful means instead. If the CA election is postponed yet again, it is likely that the reason will be the Madhesis or the Maoists, or both. If either of these parties shows any intention of disrupting the poll, regressive and pro-king elements will be more than happy to add fuel to the fire.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 26, 2007