"M" Factor in the Crisis of Present Nepal

Rajat KC

Once, present Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala mentioned that words starting with "M" were the most hated by him. M, as he indicated, stands for Marxists, Leninists, Mashal (factions of communism in Nepal) and Mandale. He added Maoists to the list just after they started an armed revolution more then a decade ago. Now the time has changed. As the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists formed an alliance, the Maoists became the closest ally of the PM Koirala. In present-day Nepal, M-6 is becoming the most substantial of factors, namely, because all of the key actors start with "M": Maoists, Monarchy, Military, Moriarty, Mukharjee and Martin. This article will highlight the desired objective of the Maoists, and relate it to the end objectives of the remaining M-5, with regard to the ongoing political crisis in Nepal.

The Maoists are the main element in M-6, due to the the country's suffering from a decade-long, ruinous, bloody insurgency which took the lives of more than 15,000 people. During Janaandolan 2 (Second popular movement), they shook hands with the SPA, which provided them with unexpected success; as a result, they are now in the interim parliament and government of Nepal. Even though the Maoists are in government, they are acting like an aggressive/hostile opposition force and still creating violence and vandalism throughout the country. Since their ultimate aim is to establish a totalitarian communist regime in Nepal, they are keeping everyone in confusion as to their end goal and taking benefits out of the fluid situation.

The military is the true instrument of national power in Nepal. The Nepalese Army is the nation's sole military force, raised by King Prithivi Narayan Shah during his unification campaign. Now, as per the peace accord signed between the government and the Maoists, the National Army is restricted to the barracks, doing just routine duties. During the insurgency period, after receiving a serious blow from the Nepalese Army, the Maoists realized that they could not achieve their end objective by military means. They were forced to change their strategy and created a political alliance with the SPA. Surprisingly, that alliance succeeded in achieving political victory, which brought the Maoists into their present position. Since the Maoists are in government and parliament, they now retain the "key" instruments of the nation's power, including the military, along with their private rebel force. They have clearly understood that, without destabilizing the structure of the Nepalese Army (by penetrating into the National army), their ultimate aim would not be realized. As per the present constitutional arrangement, the Nepalese Army cannot be mobilized unless the present government (including the Maoists) gives an executive order. Yet the Maoists fear the army, probably due to their past impression. Therefore, the Maoists now want to legitimize their rebel force by giving it national status, so that they can be easily inculcated in the Nepalese Army. They are also trying to establish a personal relationship with senior military officers to influence them into their party's interest. They have even appointed one of the retired army generals into legislative parliament in their quota.

Another part of the M factor in Nepal is the Monarchy. The Nepalese Monarchy is more than 238 years old. Modern Nepal was unified by King Prithvi Narayan Shah the Great and, ever since, Nepal has been ruled by the Shah dynasty. Out of 238 years, the Rana family ruled Nepal as an autocratic ruler (Family rule of Premiership) for 104 years (1846 to 1951 AD), while the Monarchy remained a mere figure head of the state during that period. For approximately 100 years, however, the country was indirectly ruled by Shah Kings. The actual period of rule by the Shah Dynasty was from 1961 to 1991. After the restoration of the multi-party democracy in 1991, the Nepalese Monarchy became constitutional. However, democratic Nepal could not move forward smoothly even after a decade of the restoration. The aimless war staged by the Maoists commenced during this period. As a result, the country reached a virtually failing stage. The Monarchy tried to bring derailed democracy on track, but this move could not be accelerated. As a result, the Maoists and SPA created an alliance orchestrated by India, which forced the Monarchy to hand over power to the SPA. At present, the institution of the Monarchy is at a critical stage. In fact, the Maoists have nothing to justify their bloody war at the cost of 15,000 lives. Therefore, in order to justify their so-called people's war and take credit for present achievement, they are targeting the institution of the Monarchy with revolutionary slogans. They are launching widespread propaganda against the Monarchy to portray the latter's negative image in the national and international arenas. They know that, as long as the Monarchy exists in Nepal, their ultimate dream cannot materialize. Hence, they intensify their campaign to eliminate the Monarchy prior to the election for the constituent assembly.

The other three M factors are the international figures, Mukharjee, Moriarty and Martin. Shivshanker Mukharjee is the Indian Ambassador to Nepal. The Maoists are now utilizing a political platform masterminded by India. They now have easy access to Indian points of contact by having frequent meetings with Ambassador Mukharjee. They believe that they can deceive India by pretending that they are committed to democracy by hiding their hidden objectives. However, they might have forgotten that India will carry them on their shoulders so long as their national interest is served. The Maoists must have also overlooked that Mr. Mukharjee and his country will never compromise at the cost of their national interest for any other reason. On the other hand, as India is known as the largest democracy in the world, they cannot support the Maoists if they deviate from actual democratic norms and values. It seems that India is not satisfied with the activities of the Maoists and its sister organizations.

Moriarty is the U.S. Ambassador to Nepal. James F. Moriarty (U.S. policy) is one of the biggest hurdles to the Maoists' desired objectives. They are dead scared of the name "Moriarty". He is a major factor in protecting democracy in Nepal from the threat of the Maoist takeover. No other elements in the nation in the present context are seen as effective as Moriarty in taking a stand against the Maoists' hegemony. America, as a sole global power, has taken a strong stand in safeguarding democracy and peace in Nepal. The Maoists are creating numerous conspiracies against Moriarty to demoralize him with allegations of imperialist and violator of diplomatic norms. They even mobilized the YCL to attack him. Interestingly, all the attacks and allegations staged by the Maoists have backfired and damaged their image.

Last, but not least, is Martin . Mr. Ian Martin is Special Representative of Security General (SRSG) of the United Nations, head of the ongoing UNMIN. Despite so much hegemonic behavior of the Maoists, he seems very flexible and easy-going while dealing with them. His strict and honest endeavor will certainly play a vital role in achieving the desired objective of a comprehensive peace agreement towards a lasting peace and democracy in Nepal.

Nepal is heading towards the election for the constituent assembly. Present understanding between the Eight Party Alliance (SPA-M) indicates that they are willing to hold an election in November '07, but it is still unknown when that will actually take place. If all democratic forces, along with the M-5 (excluding the Maoists), play a positive role in the ongoing peace process, peace and democracy is not far in the distance and the end objectives of the Maoists will remain a dream. Under these circumstances, the M-6 (including the Maoists) will have no other option than to contribute honestly towards the success of the peace process.

All-inclusive democracy is the only way to achieve lasting peace in Nepal. If any internal actors were to attempt to corner or eliminate each other, and the two major foreign powers didn't honestly play crucial roles, Nepal would likely face another, seemingly, endless, bloody civil war.

Source: OpEdNews.com, June 10, 2007

Late elections to help regressive forces regroup

Aditi Phadnis

Interview with Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary, Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)

When do you see elections being held in Nepal?

November this year. There are many opinions on this. Some say the reasons that prompted postponement from June to November may be cited as an excuse to postpone the elections again. They say action should be taken first against those who prevented elections from being held in June. I agree that mistakes were made but I don’t believe we need to take action against the prime minister. Elections must be held in November because there is no other way. We currently have an interim parliament with an interim constitution. Questions could be raised about the nature of an essentially nominated body that has no authority, constitutionality or legality. And when people doubt the credibility quotient of the government, it could pave the way for spent, regressive forces to resurface and consolidate. That is why my firm belief is that the interim period of transition should be as short as possible and we must have elections no later than November 23.

What is the schedule going to be like ? Will the elections be held all over Nepal on one day?

The Cabinet will decide that in consultation with the Election Commission but my feeling is that the elections cannot be held on one day. Last time, the Election Commission said it needed 110 days to hold the elections. More than five months are left. Parliament has to clear Bills on how the elections will be held. How will a proportional representation system be put in operation? Will it be a closed or open list? Will the names on the lists be final or will it be possible to change them? These are all political questions.

But my gut feeling is we can hold the elections in November. I don’t understand why the prime minister is unable to maintain law and order.

Constitutionally, this government is the most powerful in the history of Nepal. They enjoy enormous public support without having faced an election. Yet it is the weakest government in the history of Nepal. I asked the prime minister: ‘Why do you feel so weak? Why don’t you take the initiative?’

What did he say?

He said ‘I will. I will not tolerate this any more’. Some say the Nepali Congress would like to see the UML and the Maoists fight so that they can gain the advantage in the elections. But this is only what people are saying. This is not the case.

When you met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, did he tell you that you have to work with the Nepali Congress?

No, he said, ‘You must strengthen the seven-party alliance, unity must be maintained among democratic forces’. Not that we should work with the Nepali Congress. He said, ‘You have the Maoists on board now. That is a big advantage’.

What was the main theme of your talks with other Indian leaders?

We met all the leaders – Atalji, Soniaji, Dr Singh, and of course, our colleagues from the Left parties in India. All of them had the same view, that the decision of the Nepali people, no matter what, is acceptable to India. They voiced apprehension about the elections but insisted they should not be delayed. They wanted to know what Nepal wanted from India.

Did they appear to be satisfied about reports from Kathmandu about the activities of the Young Communist League (YCL)?

There are some concerns about the YCL. We have told them (the Maoists) that if you have two sets of structures in a party you will begin to have problems. We told them: ‘Do you remember the raja (king) and his mandale (lumpen groups that claimed they were acting on authority of the king)? This dual structure will create problems for you and act as a pressure group from inside. These young men and women will get involved in extortion, they will get into buses and demand money from working people… after all, gun represents power. When one has a gun, one has to have the means to keep it. The YCL could become a weakness in the movement.

Recently, a vigilante group caught hold of an individual who has charges of embezzlement of public funds and beat him up. If such events take place, the difference between forces of the state and private armies blur…

I know about the incident. Anyone who has embezzled public money must be punished. The state must act.

We hear there is a division among the Maoists: Some are for the elections but there are some who oppose it....

There is apprehension that the YCL in camps is telling grassroot level workers that they have not surrendered all their weapons, that the people should vote for them. But ultimately, the loss is the Maoists’. Intimidation will only tarnish their image. We can already see people rising up in rebellion against this in Bardia, in Dang.

There are concerns in India over Terai

Like issues relating to dalits, women, jana jatis, Terai should also be considered by the government. Communal harmony is crucial. We know the palace is behind these events. Religious fundamentalist forces are behind the events in Terai.

But there are some genuine people also. However, violent action should not be supported. The king might try to come back if there is violence. We have envisaged a system of democratic federalism. If some ethnic group has a grievance, they should raise it so that it it be addressed constitutionally. Those whose aim is to wage an armed struggle in Terai should desist. No one should give them sympathy and support.

Are they using Indian territory?

Yes, there are some reports that they are.

How can you be sure that the polls will not be disrupted by state and non-state forces?

There is an understanding among eight parties that the Constitution needs to be revised to protect Nepal if the King tries to disrupt the struggle for a republic. So, according to an amendment that is coming in Parliament, if the King tries to disrupt, a simple majority of the current Parliament present and voting can turn Nepal into a republic. As for other forces, if any other forces take the same path, they will be resisted. Each of the eight political parties are clear about this.

Source: Business Standard, June 11, 2007

NEPAL NEEDS TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION

Bhumika Ghimre

Nepal's ongoing peace process has raised questions which so far have been ignored by the Maoist insurgents, the government and the Seven Party Alliance. Contentious issues like human rights abuses carried out by the Maoist guerrillas, and misappropriation of national property, corruption and illegal activities by the royal family, have been sidelined in order to reach an agreement. While their determination to achieve peace and stability is commendable, the lack of foresight into the far reaching effects of ignoring these issues is troubling.

During the 11 year Maoist insurgency the country lost nearly 13,000 of its citizens, hundreds were injured and thousands of dollars worth of national property was damaged. While the Maoist leaders, notably Mr. Prachanda, have publicly remarked that losing 13,000 people in the struggle to have the people's rule is not a big deal as other nations in revolution have lost more, the families of those killed certainly do not buy his explanation. They want to know why their loved one was killed and why the present government is not willing to investigate their murder. Those who were injured during the conflict and those who lost their property also want justice.
The people who want Maoists to be accountable for their past violent actions are now being turned aside to achieve "peace." The government and the Seven Party Alliance have projected accountability and peace as mutually exclusive, but it does not have to be that way and it should not be that way.

After the fall of the apartheid rule in South Africa, a truth and reconciliation commission was set up to make sure that the acts of violence carried out with impunity in the past are not repeated and to bring to justice those who have committed crimes against their fellow citizens. The commission also worked to foster understanding between the two groups, the whites and the blacks. Nepal also needs a truth and reconciliation commission.

The Maoists in the last 11 years have carried out violence as a means to achieve a goal. If now they are allowed to go scot free and not pay the price for their actions, the people will get a message that using violence is now acceptable, killing your neighbor, beheading a journalist and abducting school kids is ok. Why? Because the Maoists did so and they got away with it. Can Nepal afford to have this sort of society where there is no accountability? Where violence is an accepted way of life?

Nepali society, which has seen a rapid decline in economy due to the precarious situation created by the Maoist insurgency, cannot survive if the cycle of violence goes on. With a peace agreement we may be able to stop the Maoist insurgency but the seed of factionalism, communalism sown during the insurgency cannot be stopped. A trend of armed uprising has started in the country and the only way towards lasting peace is to root out the very cause contributing to it. We have to root out violence, and without establishing a judicial system to hold the Maoists accountable it cannot be accomplished.

Maoists have to be held accountable for their actions, undoubtedly, but they are not the only one who have to answer to the Nepali people. The royal family which for centuries has enjoyed a luxurious life paid for by the tax payer's money should also be questioned for their actions, past and present. The royal family is supported by the tax payer's money so it is the tax payer's right to question them and demand justice for the families of those wronged by them. Nepal needs peace, but giving up conscience is not the way.

Source: The Telegraph Nepal, June 11, 2007

Row over ‘Indian advice’ is now over: Prachanda

Maoist chairman Prachanda today said the suspicion that arose after the media reported that India had advised the UML to tie up with the Nepali Congress has now been cleared. “We want to make clear that we [parties] now don’t have mutual suspicion that arose after the Nepali media reported that India, a country whose positive role is specially expected right from the signing of the 12-point agreement to the entire peace process and the CA election, had advised for special relation between the UML and the Nepali Congress,” Prachanda said in a statement issued after a meeting with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. He, however, didn’t clarify on the issue.

The Maoist chairman had immediately objected to the India Prime Minister’s ‘advice’ to a senior UML delegation for unity between the UML and the Congress. However, the UML leaders had refuted the reports of such an advice, but they revealed that the Indian side had expressed concern over the forceful activities of the Maoists. Prachanda in his statement also stressed that the eight-party unity must hold in the current fragile situation. He said his party was firm in its commitment to holding constituent election for establishing democratic republic. He said today's meeting between him and PM Koirala had ended on a positive note. He also indirectly admitted the wrongdoing by his cadres in some cases, but claimed that the stoning of American ambassador’s vehicle in Jhapa recently was something his party “does not even think of doing”. He said his party had already asked the government to take action against those involved in the attack.

Source: Nepalnews, June 10, 2007

DIPLOMATS' CONCERN:Shocking Insecurity

SANJAYA DHAKAL

Although they have joined the government, the Maoists have not been able to rein in their overzealous activists as was demonstrated by the pelting of stones at the vehicle carrying US ambassador James Moriarty in Jhapa recently. Unfortunately for the country, the normally reticent diplomats have now issued a strong statement demanding security. Such actions by diplomats give a very negative message and damage the credibility of whole Nepal not only that of Maoists.

The Maoists are peeved at the continual inclusion of their party in the terrorist list by the US Department of State despite their becoming a part of Nepal government. But, wrongfully and dangerously, they have equated that move by the US government with the individual ambassador. Ambassador Moriarty, who is wrapping up his term in Nepal in few weeks' time, has been drawing huge criticisms from the Maoists because of his candid remarks about the path Nepal is heading towards. He has always been in the forefront pointing out the dangers of Maoists' joining mainstream politics without making the strategic decision to abandon violence. This, he has been advocating not as his personal position but as that of the US government.
By pelting stones at Moriarty, therefore, the Maoists have not only hit at the individual but the representative of a sovereign country. What followed was a rare censure by the whole of diplomatic corps expressing displeasure at the lack of security. Last week, 15 diplomatic missions based in Nepal issued joint concerns about insecurity to them and have demanded safe environment for them to function. The diplomatic corps of Nepal have demanded that security and safe movement of foreign diplomats must be assured.

"The Diplomatic Corps of Nepal is deeply concerned by an upsurge in recent weeks of security incidents that have threatened foreign diplomats or otherwise impeded their work in the country. We condemn any and all attempts to harm, threaten, or interfere with foreign diplomats working in Nepal," a statement issued by Diplomatic Corps of Nepal said. In the strongly-worded statement, the diplomatic corps have termed as unacceptable the "targeting or threatening of diplomats in Nepal on their countries' official business." The statement urges all political groups and activists to respect customary norms and reject violence or intimidation. Significantly, it also reminds the government "of its role to ensure security and safety for diplomats."

The statement was issued on behalf of Embassies of the United States of America, France, Germany, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Denmark, Israel , Australia, South Korea, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Bangladesh and Finland. Immediately, the government was compelled to respond to the diplomats' concerns. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala apologized on behalf of the government during his meeting with visiting US Assistant Secretary of State Barry Lowenkron. Home Ministry's spokesperson Baman Prasad Neupane said the government is ready to tighten security arrangements if diplomatic missions call for the same.

On the other hand, Maoist leaders are yet to take responsibility for their behavior. A senior Maoist leader Suresh Ale Magar publicly said that Nepali people had pelted stones at Moriarty because he started making rounds of army barracks to hatch conspiracy. Speaking at a program in Charikot, he accused Moriarty of visiting army barracks and conspiring against Nepali people. Ale Magar was recently denied a visa to travel to the United States to attend a program organized by the UN. As such, the concerns expressed by diplomatic community could damage the government's efforts to hold credible polls in a free, fair and peaceful environment.

Source: Spotlight, June 10, 2007