Nepal: Carnage Anniversary Gives Way To Creepy Anticipation

Maila Baje

The Narayanhity Carnage anniversary went largely unmarked this year. And for good reason, at least from the perspective of the Eight Party Alliance (EPA)-led power elite. Unlike previous years, there was no longer any logic to eulogizing King Birendra as the antithesis of the current monarch. When the EPA's overt objective still is to do away with the throne, accusing King Gyanendra of usurping it is obviously a waste of time.

Last June, despite its capitulation, the palace was still a palpable player. The fact that the House of Representatives owed its resurrection to King Gyanendra's proclamation was pretty apparent. Since the interim constitution doesn't recognize the king, and the debris from royal statues lays strewn across the landscape, the monarchy is on its way out, right?

Not so fast. In varying degrees of conviction, the communist factions that dominate the interim legislature believe constituent assembly elections can't be held as long as the monarchy exists. In terms of shifting the goalposts, our comrades are very supple. For an embattled palace, the good news is that the only way it can head is up. Despite the sustained calumny, the crown continues to draw the support of roughly half of the people, according to most opinion polls. As any pollster knows, the large "undecided" column is the place to watch.

With the military having emerged as the most trustworthy national institution in the latest poll, the threat of a coup seems to have risen. Maoist chairman Prachanda has discounted the possibility of an army-backed palace takeover. Yet even he recognizes that warnings of impending authoritarianism are being sounded by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, not some royal rep on a palace-appointed cabinet.

Prachanda's deputy, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, has conceded that the Maoists respected Koirala only for his international legitimacy. On the defensive vis-a-vis the constituent assembly elections over the past few weeks, Koirala has now turned the tables on the Maoists.
If the elections are to be held on schedule, a modicum of law and order is what is really needed - not an arbitrary declaration of a republic. This can't be news to Prachanda. Long before the premier, the Maoist chief had publicly acknowledged that a mere legislative declaration of a republic wouldn't force the monarch onto the next flight out of the country.

It was significant that Koirala chose June 2, the Nepali-calendar anniversary of the palace massacre, to renew his threat to institute drastic measures to restore law and order. If Koirala succeeds in mobilizing the army against forces of instability, that would no doubt be a belated personal triumph.

But he hardly seems to be in a mood to rejoice. It's Dr. Bhattarai's "international" dimension our premier is really zeroing on. At the South Asian summit in Delhi in April, Koirala declared he had staked his six decades of politics on mainstreaming the Maoists. The Young Communist League (YCL)'s antics have forced the premier to reconsider the wisdom of that accomplishment on various external planes.

Former premier Sher Bahadur Deuba has returned from China, ostensibly having assured our northern neighbors of the Nepali Congress' recognition of geopolitics since its last stint in power. The longer Prachanda persists with playing China and India off against each other in his search for the best patronage, the greater the chances of an ultimate fiasco.

China may have opted out of the Diplomatic Corps' statement demanding the security and safety of foreign envoys, in the aftermath of the YCL's attack on US Ambassador James F. Moriarty's vehicle. But it would be wrong to construe that Beijing's pragmatism comes with unlimited patience. More so, when a US Assistant Secretary of State arrives in Kathmandu for the express purpose of encouraging the government to set the date for the elections.

On the southern front, an EPA delegation is sounding out the official mood of India. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has affirmed his intention to take the Bharatiya Janata Party into confidence while proceeding with his Nepal policy. Newspapers close to the New Delhi establishment are becoming more candid in asserting the urgency of giving the monarchy a "toehold".

Gandhi family confidants, moreover, remind us that it was then-Prince Gyanendra who kept open those vital channels of communication during King Birendra's 1988-90 standoff with Rajiv Gandhi. When Rajiv lost power, Prince Gyanendra still maintained contact. King Gyanendra's message to Sonia Gandhi after her Congress Party won the 2004 elections, we are told, didn't come out of the blue.

The death of former army chief Satchit Shamsher Rana, the man the Indian media reviled as the chief architect of King Gyanendra's takeover, may or may not have helped clear the air between the two dynasties. The fate of the Bhutanese refugees' Long March was nevertheless emblematic of the extent of New Delhi's reciprocity to friendly royals.

The Nepali Congress, mindful of its own history, is sticking its finger in the wind. Leaders of both factions are blowing hot and cold on unity prospects primarily to keep the communists guessing.
Unity will eventually come and the catalyst will likely be the Nepal Army. Those wary of a military intervention should look not at Pakistan, but Bangladesh - perhaps even Thailand - for parallels.

An army-backed Nepali Congress-led broader democratic front under the monarchy sounds too far-fetched? After the 1951 democratic upsurge, few Nepalis had envisaged the Shahs and Ranas ending up as a single power center.

Source: Newsblaze, June 4, 2007

Nepal: New Beginning Or Dead End?

Hari Bansha Dulal

After a year of political marathon, the Eight Party Alliance's (EPA) government has reached a dead end. With the CA elections in limbo, the EPA government is rapidly losing its legitimacy to govern and the notion of "New Nepal" is losing its appeal. The inability on the part of the EPA government to announce fresh poll dates has raised a question of legitimacy on part of EPA to govern.

The unmatched enthusiasm pumped among the citizens by the people's revolution-II is being deflated at an unprecedented rate. Due to the mishandling of the opportunity by EPA, the Nepali people have started concluding that nothing has changed except the names at the top. Things have changed both for the rank and files of the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) that were on the run during King Gyanendra's regime and the Maoists that took cover of the nature-forests - to keep their lives and dreams afloat. The biggest beneficiary, however, has been CPN (Maoist) who got a safe landing and leapfrogging opportunity from the darkness of jungles to the corridor of the Singha Durbar.

Needless to say, EPA has tremendously benefited from the people's trust and willingness to rally behind them, but what have people gained? It is high time to balance the book. With the increase in violence, insecurity, and the government's inability to conduct CA elections, the Nepali people who have become consumers of false dreams sold by politicians have started asking themselves: Was people's evolution-II for us or for the politicians whose political careers have been choked by King Gyanendra?

While the hand-picked parliamentarians are drawing fat checks for raising hands to consent on the decisions made by the top leaders of their respective parties, the transition period meant to secure peace and ensure the long-term prosperity of the Nepali people, the populace is laden with violence, chaos, and insecurity. This further complicates the minimum conditions required for conducting CA elections. The question that arises now is how long the interim parliament and the EPA government should be in place before it is deemed that they have lost the consent of the governed? What can they do to buy the required legitimacy to govern, if anything?

Be it before the start of the Maoist insurgency, during the insurgency, or after the safe landing of the Maoists, things are same for the rich and famous and their kids. They had everything to lead a comfortable life and buy their safety. The Maoists did not inflict a scratch on the rich and famous because of their symbiotic relationship that was largely based on the money that they could extract from the privileged class.

As usual, things are normal for the privileged class now. While the sons and daughters of the rich and famous frivolously spend money to sweat themselves out in discos in the capital, the children of poor in the far-flung villages are sweating out of nervousness of not being able to keep their dreams afloat.

Thus, the biggest losers of the ongoing violence, insecurity, and the inability on the part of the government to navigate the nation towards political stability have been the poor and downtrodden populace. The sons and daughters of rich politicians and businessmen can buy one-way ticket to Western countries but what about the children of poor that are forced to waste their precious human life due to the inability of politicians to provide required opportunity to lead a meaningful life?

One of the many reasons why the plight of the indigents is not taken seriously is because most of the politicians have no clue about what it means to be a poor. While some were well off to begin with and are not in a position to understand how debilitating poverty is, others have amassed enough wealth (which would have been impossible if pursued through legal means) and have forgotten those old days whereby they had a hard time meeting basic necessities. Like the majority of politicians, the new entrants in Nepali politics (the Maoists) who successfully sold the dreams of prosperity to the largely illiterate and economically deprived populace, are not doing enough to fulfill peoples' aspirations.

They seem to not realize that their propagandist politics alone will not be of any help when it comes to building an egalitarian nation. They have no well-tested developmental model, no proven strategy to spur economic growth, no clue about how to properly redistribute wealth other than redistributing land, and no desire to secure peace which is a prerequisite to prosperity.

For development to take place there should be peace in the nation. Prachanda's dismissal of existence of other forces such as MPRF and NIFIN and his social workers turned militias are the main obstacles towards securing peace in the nation. Thus, Prachanda's claim that he would turn this largely hungry nation into a prosperous and well-functioning democracy like Switzerland is simply ludicrous. Who in the world would like to invest in a nation where shutdowns of industries by cadres of political parties happen on a mere whim, with intimidation and extortion rampant?

It did not take very long for the gain of mass movement of 1990 to dissipate. Fifteen years and we are back to square one. Hard-earned democracy did not last long because the rent-seeking coalition between business and politics served to fuel corruption and violence in the body politic of Nepal. Easy money earned through illegal means was used to sustain a new class of political elites who remained immune from the forces of law enforcement because of their political status and connection.

Like in the past, the politicians do not appear to be driven by a sense of mission to transform the society in a particular direction this time around too. If not corrected, the lack of developmental vision and the ability to secure peace amongst the current leadership, who do not seem to have learnt lessons from the past, will be compounded by their weak commitment to realize the importance of such a vision. Popular disillusionment is sure to occur like in the past which the Maoists cashed pretty smartly in their favor, mainly due to the failure of the state to deliver expected democratization of local social relations and political authority, continuing poverty and a widening gap between the haves and have-nots.

The only question that kept on lingering in people's mind after the fall of King Gyanendra's regime was, "What would our leaders do differently than they did after the fall of Panchayat regime in 1990 that would strengthen democracy and make Nepal prosperous?" And, our leaders are not doing anything differently even though the political and social landscape is not the same as it was during the early 1990s.

The time is running out for the EPA government. All the constituents of EPA should realize their mistakes and pledge a non confrontational style of politics. For any meaningful change to materialize, the centrist forces should correct their laid-back attitude, understand the need for a changed political landscape, and realize the urgency to work towards fulfilling people's aspirations. As far as the political left is concerned, it should pledge non rhetorical style of politics and stop abusing parliament as an arena for rhetorical exchanges.

It should be rather used as a vehicle for political consensus building. Furthermore, it should find ways to keep its unruly cadres within its grip. It somehow got to teach its cadres rational and civilized ways of protesting. Indulging in immoral acts of burning and destroying public property that we built through the tax payers' money is mockery of our own achievement.

If political leaders fail to understand the gravity of the situation and continued with their old habits, coming generations too will have to fight for democracy again. Failure to deliver development benefits and meet people's aspirations shall invite February 1st over and again in some form or another.

Insurgencies will easily flourish as impoverished societies are hot beds for such movements. The Maoist insurgency by no means is an end to rebellion. The desire to rebel shall stay put until the Eight Party Alliance (EPA) and the subsequent governments in the future are able to ensure peace, prosperity, and pursuit of happiness.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 1, 2007

Maoist Terai wing for Madhesis' rights

KATHMANDU, June 3: The Madhesi National Liberation Front Nepal has made public various decisions passed in the context of the rights and interests of the Madhesis and the contemporary political developments.The extended meeting recently of the Front's Central Office, chaired by Matrika Prasad Yadav, convenor of the Front's second national convention organising committee, decided to consolidate the organisation and extensively expand it, distribute and renew membership, constitute a five-member action committee under the leadership of Mahendra Paswan and carry out a month-long peaceful programme for securing the rights and interests of the Madhesh and the Madheshi peoples in a phase-wise manner.

The Front has also taken the decision to organise peaceful protest programme from June 7 to July 9 with the objective of exerting pressure for proclamation of the date of Constituent Assembly election by declaring republic from the Legislature-Parliament itself, of immediately proclaiming the Madhesh autonomous provincial republic, of taking action against the criminals involved in the Gaur massacre and of making public the status of the people said to have been disappeared.Chairman of the CPN-Maoist Prachanda, in-charge of the East Command of the party Badal, deputy commander and joint in-charge of the Mithila Bhojpuri Bureau Baldev were also present in the meeting, the Front stated in a press release issued Sunday.

Source: The Gorkhapatra, June 5, 2007

The rise of a party

MALLIKA ARYAL

In 1997, a group of madhesi intellectuals and students banded together to discuss their concerns and issues. There was no formal membership in this Biratnagar-based group and participants included leftists and members of other mainstream parties. The common denominator was their disenchantment with the big parties and the sense that their debates were largely ignored. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum soon emerged as the most-respected, representative platform for madhesi issues. In the same year, the Maoists celebrated their first anniversary underground by intensifying their struggle in the mid-west, Nepal had three unstable coalition governments, and the human rights situation deteriorated as scores were detained by the state.

Ten years later, the Maoists have entered into the peace process, and the MJF has turned relatively violent. Both, however, are now registered as parties with the Election Commission and much of the fight for influence in the madhes is between these two fronts.
Insiders tell us that the Maoist leadership was sympathetic to the Forum at the start, and even instrumental in organising it. Around 1999 Upendra Yadav, then a regular member of UML, started becoming closer to the Maoists.

In February 2004, Upendra Yadav, Maoist leaders Matrika Yadav and Mohan Baidya were arrested in Delhi. Upendra Yadav was let go after a couple of months, while Matrika Yadav and Mohan Baidya were handed over to Nepali authorities and were released in 2006. Those close to Upendra Yadav say that during the time of his arrest he was already trying to distance himself from the Maoists because of discrimination he felt in the ranks within the Maoist hierarchy and because he did not agree with the Maoist plan to divide madhes into ‘Madhes Autonomous Region’ and ‘Tharuwan Autonomous Region’. Vijay Kant Karna, chairperson of Jaghrit Nepal says, “No one was happy in the tarai with the Maoists because they called it Madhes Government but high ranks in their party were given to pahadis.”

After the 1 February 2005 royal takeover Upendra Yadav and Jaya Prakash Gupta, former general secretary of the MJF and present Nepali Congress MP started travelling back and forth between India and Nepal to prepare for a movement in Nepal. After last year’s April Uprising Upendra Yadav returned to Nepal and in the eight months after Jana Andolan II, the MJF had successfully held meetings in almost all the districts of Nepal.

Since then, the forum and Yadav have been accused of both flip-flopping and forming alliances with Hindu fundamentalist groups in India, such as the Rastiya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). In December Yadav attended a meeting of rightwing Hindu groups in Gorakhpur and spoke out publicly about making Nepal a Hindu nation again. A month later he was leading the movement for a secular federal republic.

“He can be highly influenced by others,” says Nepali Congress MP Amresh Kumar Singh, adding, “If you try to play with all the powers, you forget the cause you were fighting for.” Like most madhesi leaders who do not actively profess membership in the MJF, Singh too is said to have had a falling out with Yadav.

Jaya Prakash Gupta, who is close to Yadav, says the accusations of alliances with the palace and Indian fundamentalist groups are misguided. “If mainstream political parties meet with big Indian leaders, no one calls that an ‘unholy alliance’,” Gupta told us from Biratnagar. Gupta said that since Gaur, Yadav has not been allowed to move freely or explain “his side of the story”.

That Gupta and other moderate madhesi leaders took a careful line on Gaur while speaking to us is an indication of the pan-madhesi appeal that the forum still has. On the one hand, they argued, Gaur was ‘retaliation’ for months of harassment and disruption of MJF meetings by the Maoists Tarai Mukti Morcha. On the other, most admit it was a tactical mistake.

“If the MFJ had been willing to sit for talks right after the Madhes Uprising, they could have bargained their way into more madhesi representation and investigations of Lahan and Nepalganj, and pressured the prime minister to implement the promises made during his second address,” says Chandra Kishore, editor of Terai News Magazine in Birganj. “Now, after Gaur, everyone fears the forum as a criminal organisation.”

Sarita Giri of the Nepal Sadbhawana Party-Anandi Devi, says the MJF is not in the least militant. “They are not armed, Gaur was retaliation against the Maoists because they had disrupted their activities in Bhairahawa and Nepalganj,” she argues.

Meantime, there is said to be a few faultlines showing in the forum, one between the more left-wing members and Yadav, and the other between Yadav’s supporters who believe this was the right time to register a party and Gupta’s group, which argues that fundamental issues need to be settled before deciding to contest elections. There are signs of a split in the ranks—an insider tells us that of the 25 members in the working committee, only 13 members’ names were on the list given to the Election Commission during registration. Gupta pooh-poohs this and says that though his proposal lost out, he will support the MJF as a party.

Yadav gets the most publicity, but there are other prominent figures in the forum, such as veteran leftist leader Sitananda Raya, and MJF secretary general Ram Kumar Sharma. There are two vice chairmen Bhagyanath Gupta, a professor at Birganj’s Thakur Ram Bahumukhi Campus, and Kishore Biswas Tharu, a former member of Nepal Sadbhawana Party.

“As a political party our agenda is pretty clear—we want democratic system of governance, autonomous federal structure, proportional elections, and we want Nepal to be a republic” says Jitendra Sonal, MJF’s secretariat member.

Analysts say that given the lack of commitment seen on the part of the government to resolving madhesi issues, the MJF as a political party could take off stronger than those who call the forum irresponsible might imagine.

Source: Madhesi United, Blog, June 5, 2007

Joint Effort Needed

SPEAKER Subash Nemwang has emphasised the need for joint efforts from all political forces and others to hold the election to a constituent assembly. Speaking at the inaugural session of 41st annual general convention of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry in Kathmandu the other day, Speaker Nemwang said that constituent assembly election is a must to restructure the state, ensure inclusive democracy and complete the political and peace process. The remarks of the Speaker are absolutely correct as the constituent assembly election alone would institutionalise the achievements of the Jana Andolan II and create a new Nepal. The government and the eight political parties are committed to hold the election by November 2007. It had earlier been agreed to hold the election by mid-June. This deadline could not be met due to various reasons. Thus, the eight political parties recently decided to hold the election by November this year and the government was mandated to fix the convenient date for the election after making due consultation with different stakeholders. There are some important works, which need to be done before announcing the dates for the election. Firstly, the interim constitution has to be amended.

Secondly, some laws concerning the constituent assembly election need to be formulated. The delineation of the electoral constituencies is yet another job to be done before the date for the election is to be announced. Thus, the government is now seriously working to complete other processes for announcing the dates for the election. The constituent assembly election is the priority of the nation and all sectors including the civil society have been demanding early constituent assembly election so that the achievements of the Jana Andolan II would be duly safeguarded. Since the eight political parties have unanimously agreed to hold the election by November 2007, they should work collectively with one voice to hold the election in time and in a free and fair manner. But the constituents of the eight parties and partners of the government are trying to blame one another for the delay in holding the election. This blame game would not help conduct the election in time. It would only create division among the alliance partners. It is high time that the eight parties must consolidate their unity, which alone would help complete the ongoing political process. Thus, the political parties and leaders, as observed by Speaker Nemwang, need to rise above the partisan interest and work together for the common cause of the nation. '

Source: The Rising Nepal, June 5, 2007