Poll environment

There are only 117 days left for the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections slated for November 22. However, the election fever is conspicuously absent in the air. A period of four months is insufficient for the preparation of an election of such a great magnitude, which will not only form a new parliament but change the fate of this country as well. To our utter dismay, no party has pulled its socks up for the elections yet. Both UML and NC have initiated some sort of subtle poll campaigns. Neither the tea stalls are abuzz with election talks, nor are the political cadres anywhere close to their expected busy schedules. The forthcoming CA polls demand much more energy and enthusiasm because it is much more different and complicated than the general elections. In addition to electing one candidate from a constituency, this time, we will also be casting our vote for the party of our choice in the second ballot paper which will be dropped in a different ballot box. The second vote will ensure proportional representation.

The lack of enthusiasm for the forthcoming elections, it seems, is due to the fact that many are unconvinced that the CA polls will be held on schedule. Mainly, the slow pace of the Maoist transformation from gun culture to peace are making people worried about the future of the CA polls. Besides, they are apprehensive that the monarchists might poke the elections, and that the Madhesi trouble might swell into too hot an issue for the state to handle. That the Maoists might not fare well in the ballot is also a reason to be suspicious of the coming elections. People are asking, will they allow free and fair elections seeing the writing on the wall?

Now, the onus lies on the shoulder of political parties and the Maoists to win the confidence of the people. The political parties should swiftly spread their tentacles to the hinterland and the Maoists should expedite their transition to peace. The lull in YCL's behavior in recent days has shown some appreciable changes. On the part of the government, it has to maintain law and order, ensure peace and generate enthusiasm for holding free and fair elections. As Chief Election Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokhrel has said, it is the duty of the political parties and the government to create an election-friendly environment for the upcoming CA polls. In addition, everyone should acknowledge the fact that it is a testing time for Nepal. All the Nepalis should join their hands to make the CA elections a big success, and prove the world that the Nepalis are always for democracy, justice, peace and the economic prosperity.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, July 27, 2007

Nepal: experiencing pangs of transition

S.D. Muni

The challenge to Nepal’s peace process comes from political vested interests, Maoist activities, and the gradually spreading turbulence in the Terai region.


Nepal’s peace process is passing through a delicate phase. The core objective of this process is to integrate the Maoists into an inclusive and fully democratic political order. This process of transiting a 238-year-old feudal state into a vibrant and responsive democratic order has been reasonably smooth and speedy so far. Since the success of the peoples’ movement in April 2006, led peacefully by the Maoists and the democratic forces, much progress has been a chieved. The Maoists have committed themselves to non-violent and democratic politics under a Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed with the government on November 2001. Following this, the Maoists have registered their arms and armed cadres under United Nations supervision. An interim Constitution, interim parliament, and interim coalition government of an eight-party alliance (of Maoists and seven mainstream political parties) have been put in place. The King has been stripped of all his powers raising the prospects of establishing a democratic Republic. The culmination of the peace process, and thereby the prospects of a stable and prosperous Nepal, now depends upon the sincere implementation of assurances and commitments by the Maoists and other political parties and the drafting of a Constitution by a Constituent Assembly scheduled to be elected in November 2007.

The challenge to the smooth advancement of the peace process and the holding of the Constituent Assembly elections comes from three sources: political vested interests, Maoist activities, and the gradually spreading violence in the Terai region. The royalists, both around the palace and within the political parties, have no interest in the elections as a Constituent Assembly in its very first sitting is expected to abolish monarchy and establish a Republic. There are sections of royalists who may settle for a ceremonial monarchy. However, King Gyanendra, unaware of the shift against him of the popular mood since 2005, has not accepted the option of ceremonial monarchy and continues to scheme to regain as much of his powers as possible. He wants to drive a wedge in the ruling coalition and disrupt the election process. His failed birthday bash on July 7, 2007, was a clear indication of this.


Some of the political parties too do not seem to be ready for elections, having lost political ground during the 10 years of Maoist insurgency. The Nepali Congress (NC) is awaiting the reunification of its breakaway group under Sher Bahadur Deuba. The royalists as well as smaller left parties are not too sure of their electoral prospects. There are assessments that even the Maoists may want to delay elections as they have lost much of their goodwill in the post-peoples’ movement (Jan Andolan) period, though their top leaders are of the view that the more the elections are delayed the more their political ground will be eroded. Uncertainty in the minds of these political stakeholders has seriously daunted their enthusiasm for elections. The Chief Election Commissioner has complained of the government’s delay in filling the vacancies in the poll panel.

All those who want to delay the elections are seeking shelter behind the prevailing violence and lawlessness in Nepal. The abductions, extortions, and use of force by the Youth Communist League (YCL) created by the Maoists from their erstwhile Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) cadres invite considerable flak from various sources, including the Prime Minister. The Maoists’ inability to return properties seized during the insurgency period are also cited as examples of their bad faith vis-À-vis joining the mainstream. The Maoists are partly using YCL strong-arm methods to pressure the other coalition partners but, on the other hand, there are differences in the Maoist leadership on this issue. There are clearly two lines on the degree and extent to which the group should integrate in the prevailing multi-party politics. Many in the Polit Bureau feel that they are walking in a trap to be gradually marginalised and eliminated, as their cadres are killed in the Terai and their image is tarnished in the rest of the country. Therefore, an organised YCL is required to deter their enemies, mobilise political support, and garner votes if and when elections take place. For them, YCL is their youth wing as in all other parties.

The Terai is in a state of virtual anarchy on account of the unrest in the Hindi-speaking Madheshi community. Long neglected and discriminated against, the Madheshis are demanding proper representation in the new Nepal. Royalists backed by Hindu extremists from across the borders in India fanned the initial sparks of violence, caused by Maoist blunders, to discredit the interim government. Initially, even some of the major political parties and sections of the international community tried to turn the Madheshis’ ire against the Maoists to erode the latter’s support base. The Madheshis have a genuine issue but in the absence of a credible leadership, a number of criminal, self-serving and narrow-based political groups are taking undue advantage of the situation. In the forefront of violence and disruption are three splinter Maoists factions of Jai Krishan Goit, Jwala Singh, and Bisfotak Singh, the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum of Upendra Yadav, the Sadbhawana Party, which is a part of the ruling alliance, and lastly, the Terai Cobra and the Terai Tigers led by unknown Robin Hoods. Some Terai political activists are still waiting to float new leadership platforms. The royalists continue to indirectly support and encourage some of these groups in the hope that a disordered Terai will mar the prospects of smooth elections. Slow and uncalibrated responses from the government as well as the eight-party alliance have worsened the situation. The Maoists’ proposal to raise an eight-party front to politically deal with the Terai violence has yet to take off. If the Terai situation has to be brought under control, the government must move fast to seriously engage with the genuine Madheshi groups.


Behind all this confusion and persisting conflict in Nepal is the fact that the old mindsets are finding it hard to come to terms with the new challenge thrown by the peoples’ movement. The political parties and the Maoists had perhaps forged only a tactical alliance to deal with the autocratic King. It is doubtful if this alliance is based on a shared grand strategic vision of building a new Nepal of popular aspirations. This is reflected in the divergence among the eight parties on the questions of the monarchy’s future status, inclusion of hitherto marginalised sections of Madheshis and ethnic minorities, restructuring of the Nepalese army, and of priorities of socio-economic transformation. Such divergences have worsened the trust deficit between not only the Maoists and the other political parties, but also among the non-Maoist parties in the ruling alliance. Maoists continue to grumble about being discriminated against, be it the question of ambassadorial appointments or allocation of funds for their registered cadres or resources for the ministries allocated to them. One wonders if India and the rest of the international community, which are deeply engaged with Nepal’s peace process, have also not been afflicted by the old mindset problem. The outspoken and outgoing American Ambassador, James F. Moriarty, made it amply clear in a number of his departing statements. All those who are engaged in restructuring a new Nepal need to understand clearly that the continuing alliance between the political parties and the Maoists, and election of a Constituent Assembly are the basic requirements for peace and stability in Nepal. There is no alternative except chaos and disorder.

After receiving the shock of popular disenchantment with King Gyanendra’s April 21, 2006, proclamation on the peoples’ movement, India has tried to push Nepal’s peace process in a positive direction, both through diplomatic persuasion and the allocation of generous financial resources. There are, however, elements in the Indian political and policy establishments that would still like to see a ceremonial monarchy and the marginalisation of the Maoists. They want India to be prepared to pick up the pieces and deal with the debris if Nepal were to fall apart due to the Madheshi issue and the ethnic tensions. One hopes Indian policy steers clear of such elements. While continuing to support the peace process, India must throw its weight behind a constructive engagement between Kathmandu and the Madheshi people. Many of the Madheshi groups have in the past thrived and prospered on Indian doles. They must be prevailed on by New Delhi to desist from the path of violence and seek a just but negotiated resolution of their grievances with Kathmandu. If the Terai violence is allowed to delay or disrupt the election process in Nepal and its peace process collapses, India will be the worst affected by its extensive negative spillover.


Source: The Hindu, July 27, 2007

INTERVIEW WITH UPENDRA YADAVc

Excerpts of an interview with Upendra Yadav, chairman of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) from Nepal magazine.

Q. You secretly went to the US and returned at a time when the Forum is suspected to have American support. Why?

Yadav: I was not invited by the American government. I went there on the invitation of an organization of Nepalis residing there. I could only arrive there a week behind the scheduled date as the (US) Embassy did not issue the visa on time. As far as the Madhes agitation is concerned, it is an agitation launched by the Nepali people, and not by America or India.

Q. Who did you meet in America?

Yadav: I met with the local leaders of the Democratic Party, that too, on the initiation of the Nepali diaspora.

Q. You used to meet US ambassador James F Moriarty here. What issues were discussed?

Yadav: What he used to say publicly, I also said the same thing. He had said he wanted to see the Constituent Assembly elections held in a peaceful manner, and the Loktantric/ democratic process move ahead, successfully.

Q. Why does America perceive Maoist advancement in Madhes as a threat?
Yadav: To state that America senses a threat from the Maoists is like saying a rabbit poses a threat to a tiger. Is there any reason for America, which is bracing for Star Wars, to get intimidated by the Maoists wielding a few weapons?

Q Don’t you think that the Forum is being used against the Maoists by someone?
Yadav: When there is an agitation, different types of people try to take advantage of it. Those elements tried to instigate the Maoists. We have to learn from such incidents. The Maoists, we and all other democratic forces must try to protect ourselves from that, lest the country suffers a negative fallout.

Q. What is your take on the Maoists’ argument that the plot was hatched, considering the threats a Maoist advancement in Madhes poses to India?

Yadav: Nepal poses no threat to India.

Q. It is even suspected that the Madhes agitation was launched at India’s behest to destabilize Nepal. What is the link between the Forum and India?

Yadav: Had the Madhes agitation been staged on India’s behalf, Nepal’s geographical structure itself would have changed by now. Secondly, the people of Madhes were ready to lay down their lives for their rights in the course of that agitation. Could they have been ready to die in that way had the agitation been prompted by America, India or China? Leaders ranging from the Nepali Congress to the Maoists had lived or taken shelter in India due to adverse situations. Then, why are our intentions being questioned just because we stay in India?

Q. Don’t you feel that the Jantantric Terai Mukti Morcha, which is conducting armed activities, is getting shelter in India?

Yadav: One’s policy, what one is up to, is more important than where one lives. A lot of criminals in Nepal have settled in India and a lot of Indian criminals have settled in Nepal.

Q. Prior to your US visit, you convened a joint meeting with the JTMMs in Patna and discussed the agenda about separating the country. Are you involved in politics of disintegration?

Yadav: Someone could have a policy of dividing the country. But, it is our belief that the problems dogging the country need to be addressed without hurting national sovereignty and integrity. We have sought federal governance and autonomy within Nepal, and not by separating from Nepal. We can’t even imagine a division of the country. We also do not accept the policy of the organization waging an armed struggle in Madhes, including the JTMMs. The discrimination in Madhes needs to be address peacefully. It is futile to look for the answer outside the country.

Q. At the Patna meeting, Jwala Singh even said ‘Now we can't expect (anything) from Upendra, hence Ramraja Prasad Singh needs to assume the leadership’, right?

Yadav: Much like the way the JTMM does not expect anything from us, we also cannot expect anything from the JTMM. We don’t think the JTMM can lead the Madhes agitation, positively. Our paths are separate.

Q. Then, how do you define the relationship between the Forum and the JTMM?

Yadav: The relationship does not exist. Many organizations in Madhes were formed after dissociating from the Maoists. It is unknown where the other organizations came from. We also do not know the purposes behind the formation of such organizations.

Q If the relationship does not exist then on what basis do both the factions of JTMM take the responsibility for the attack on the Maoists using the Forum activists as their “cover”?
Yadav: We do not want such organizations to attend our programme. Even if they have to organize a programme, let them do it separately. Let there be no infiltration. However, accidents do occur despite our wishes. Many organizations take responsibility for them for cheap popularity. A trend to release press statements owning up to such incidents to garner publicity is on rise in Madhes.

Q. What can you say about the Gaur carnage?

Yadav: Since Jwala Singh has taken up the responsibility for the incident, one can see that the MPRF was not responsible. To summarize, the Gaur incident was a conspiracy against us by those who wanted to defame the MPRF as a group committed to violence, like JTMM prohibiting us from coming to the mainstream.

Q. You were scheduled to address the Gaur mass meeting. But you didn't attend it despite the fact that you were present in a nearby area. Later, the killings of the Maoist cadres took place. Doesn't it give the impression of the picture being preplanned by the MPRF itself?

Yadav: When the incident took place, I was not there- I was here in Kathmandu. At the time of the Gaur incident, there was a gathering of thousands of people. How could we know what kind of people were hiding in the crowd? If the Maoists had not made the decision of attacking the MPRF, the incident would never have taken place. Second, the administration is also responsible. Because, the administration already knew that such an incident was going to take place.

Q. What do you say then about the MPRF activists from a royalist background?

Yadav: There is no place for royalists in the MPRF. Our andolan is for a federal democratic republic.

Q. Talks with the prime minister's daughter Sujata have become frequent these days?

Yadav: She is a Nepali Congress leader. I know her personally. She also knows me. We used to meet occasionally in the past.

Q. So the MPRF's demand that the Home Minister should quit is the result of those meetings?
Yadav: It is also the demand of two-thirds of the people within the NC. Girija (Prasad Koirala) has himself confessed during our meetings that there isn't any purpose of carrying (Home Minister Sitaula) while walking forward. Personally, he would be a good and honest person, and he may have played a good role in the peace process too. However, as a Home Minister he tried to suppress the Madhesi agitation and failed to maintain law and order. So that's why, we have asked for his resignation.

Q. Do you think that the demand to put a ban on the YCL (Young Communist League) is logical?

Yadav: They have also demanded that the MPRF should be banned. Under these circumstances, if we also make a similar demand then it's not such an unusual demand. Today, even the head of the state has christened the YCL as the Young Criminal League. The "Criminal League" should either reform itself or stop its activities. If the Maoists continue to move forward in this way, then the Constituent Assembly elections won't take place- even democracy can’t be sustained. That's why the Maoists must truly democratize themselves.

Q. Why don't you make a similar demand regarding the JTMM as well?

Yadav: The JTMM should also reform itself. The manner and the way of their struggle haven’t had a positive impact on the Madhesi andoaln. However, their activities have defamed the agitation. The Madhesi people are tired of armed groups like the JTMM. Every group should enter the political mainstream.Q. Do you think the MPRF is itself in the political mainstream?
Yadav: We are in the political mainstream. The proof is that we've already registered the MPRF as a political party to take part in the upcoming CA polls.

Q. Why do you think many old MPRF activists have left?

Yadav: Earlier, there were people of various political parties in the MPRF. However, the MPRF has become a separate party today. If those friends want to do politics for the parties they belong to, then there is no point in continuing with the MPRF.

Q. How many of your demands have been fulfilled by the government?

Yadav: We've reached consensus on a few demands, but they are yet to be implemented. Like- providing compensation to the families of the martyrs, medical treatment to the injured, a dismissal of all legal complaints, and proportional representation of Madhesi, indigenous, and ethnic people.

Q. From the MPRF perspective, do you think that the CA elections are possible on November 22?

Yadav: Today, neither has the government shown any real activity to hold the CA polls, nor have the necessary preparations been made. A sense of peace and security is crucial for the CA polls. Besides, the government should hold talks with various agitating groups to create an amiable environment for the CA polls. However, these things are yet to be done.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, July 17, 2007

Reforms that CA polls call for

Hari Bansh Jha

At this time, no issue is more talked about than election and electoral reforms. This is to be expected in a country where successive governments have been postponing CA polls for over five-and-a-half decades on one pretext or the other. But the momentum for CA elections gained ground only in the aftermath of Jana Andolan II, with CA polls proposed for June 2007.Even though the date for CA election has been fixed for Nov. 22, 2007, doubts persist considering the deteriorating law and order situation. Amidst such speculation, the Centre for Economic and Technical Studies (CETS), a research organisation, organised a two-day seminar in the Kathmandu Valley recently on “Issues and Challenges of Electoral Reforms in Nepal” in cooperation with Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), a research wing of the Social Democratic Party of Germany.

During the deliberations, participated by over 90 personalities, including politicians, journalists, academicians, and women, plus representatives of Janajatis, Dalits and Madheshis, nearly everyone agreed that election was the only non-violent method for societal transformation. They noted that the most difficult part of election was to ensure inclusiveness while at the same time addressing the pressing demands of various agitating groups and defeating communal and reactionary elements.It was felt that low turnout of the voters might denote people’s lack of commitment and trust in the electoral system and apart from the FPtP system, the adoption of proportional system was suggested. It was also felt that low level of understanding among the people about the mixed electoral system was a big challenge. In this context, the EC needs to initiate awareness programmes to help people understand the mixed electoral system and the technicalities involved.

Likewise, the Election Constituency Delineation Committee (ECDC) was viewed as a stumbling block to CA polls for lack of experts in the panel. The EC itself isn’t free of blame for its lack of transparency. Statistics reveal that the cost-per-vote in elections had been increasing. From a meagre Rs 10 during House of Representatives (HoR) election in 1991 the amount jumped to Rs 20 in 1994 and finally to Rs 27 in 1999. For the CA polls, the cost-per-vote is likely to shoot up to Rs 107.Apart from EC, candidates and foreign agencies too spend a lot of money in the name of voters’ education. With the growth in election expenses, it is difficult for the poor, honest and deserving candidates to fight and win the elections as they cannot afford to pay for 3 G’s: Guns, gold and goons. The EC needs to monitor the flow of money during the election and devise strategies to punish those who do not follow the code of conduct. The seminar concluded: CA polls, conducted in free and fearless manner, could give a new lease of life to the nation; while failure to do so at the scheduled date might invite a larger catastrophe. The CA election is also important for its role in institutionalising the gains of the people’s revolution.

Source: The Himalayan Times, July 27, 2007

Maoist foreign policy based on Panchasheel: Gajurel

Kathmandu, July 25: Except for some timely modifications, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) does not have any immediate plan of making a major shift in the existing foreign policy of the country. The major thrust of the CPN-Maoist's foreign policy is based on the five Principles of Panchasheel.However, fraternal relations with the Maoist forces across the world will be continued on the basis of 'proletariat internationalism', said C.P. Gajurel, chief of the Foreign Relations Department of the CPN-Maoist. Since we entered into a new political phase, we have made some changes in our foreign policy. Now we represent in the parliament and we are a part of the interim government. We are aiming at forming our own government after the elections of the Constituent Assembly. So we must have certain policies to deal with different states and different governments Talking to The Rising Nepal on various issues relating to foreign relations, he said Maoist foreign policy will not deviate from the major international practices. "We have to work in such a way that our policy should not contradict with the existing international practices. We think we can do it. "Responding to a query as to how the Maoist would develop its international relations without active support of the United States of America and India, Gajurel said, "First of all, we do not want to single out any government for developing relations. We don't want to exclude any country. We are open and want to develop amicable relations with all."

So far as the US is concerned, it has not been supportive to this process from the very beginning when the CPN-Maoist and seven parties entered into a 12-point agreement. The US was against the negotiations between the seven parties and the CPN-Maoists. The basic policy of the US was to make an alliance between the monarchy and seven parties and exclude the Maoist from that alliance and ignite suppression against the Maoist. But it utterly failed as the alliance between seven parties and the Maoist took a concrete shape. It is very unfortunate that the US has not taken any concrete decision to remove our party from their list of terrorists, he affirmed. So far India is concerned; it is very important part of our foreign policy. Nepal and India are very close neighbours in every respect. Relations with India are very important. But we will have 'equi-proximate relations' with both India and China, said Gajurel. "We don't think our relationships with revolutionary forces in different parts of the world should jeopardise the relations with these two neighbours." Despite 'unpleasant response' of the US, are you still hopeful about patching differences with the world's superpower? In response to this question Gajurel said that people should not be worried about the relations with the US. "There are countries in this world which are doing well without US assistance. Nobody should worry about that our development activities would suffer due to bitter relations with the US. There are countries, which are doing fine, even without US assistance."

Gajurel further said, "We are surprised as to why the US is so critical about us. It was fine when we were a rebellion force, but now we are in the parliament and we are also a part of the government. It looks funny that they recognise the parliament, they recognise the government, but it is quite surprising that they do not recognise our party." Because of this erroneous policy, the Bush administration has been isolated from other parts of the world as well. Jimmy Carter, former president of the US while he was here had a meeting with our leaders and told them that the US should not have continued the previous policy, Gajurel added. ''They should have removed the terrorist tag' this is what Carter told our leaders. Former US president Carter was very positive about our democratic transformation. Even the United Kingdom, the close ally of the US has taken our move very positively. So are you optimist about the Democrats in the US? Gajurel in response to this question said "Though their basic foreign policy is not going to be changed, but we are very hopeful that the victory of Democrats in 2008 US elections will definitely review the previous government's policy," he said. It is said that the activities of the Young Communist League (YCL) have been counter-productive to the process of democratisation of your party. Do you agree with this observation? In response to this query he said ?"We don't agree with such remarks because they are totally biased and baseless.Whoever makes such comments they do not have any evidence when and where the YCL violated the democratic norms. They (YCL) are supporting the administration or police force." We always welcome healthy suggestions. The other political parties blame the YCL for bullying, but they do not comment anything over the incidents of kidnappings and killings in the Terai. Such violent activities will be a real problem for holding the elections of Constituent Assembly, he added.

Regarding the Maoists' chairman's Europe visit he said, "We have had very positive experience. We are really encouraged by their overwhelming response." Responding to a query about the possible deviation from the principles of Marxism, Leninism and Maoism while moving towards the path of democratisation, he said ? "No we are not deviating. We are trying to adopt those philosophies according to the changed context, but without any obliteration in the spirit of those philosophies. Instead, we are enriching Marxism, Leninism and Maoism. But one has to understand that Marxism is not a dogma. It needs to be modified as per the changed context. In fact it is a guide to action, he said. What about CPN-UML's transformation to new democracy? As far as the CPN-UML is concerned, it has basically deviated from Marxism and Leninism. Because they are not in favour of class struggle, but for class-coordination. And they have given up new democracy. But you are also moving towards the path of CPN-UML. Aren't you? He said "No we are just in the process of applying Marxism and Leninism in the changed context."Our political rivals have spread a rumour that we are not democrats. But we can prove that communists are the real democrats, because we represent the will of 90-95 per cent people across the country. We are not against any democracy and democratic forces. Regarding globalisation and Nepal's entry into the World Trade Organisation, he said " "We are not against it, but it should be adopted according to the financial strength of a country. We should be in a position to reap benefits out of globalisation."


Source: The Rising Nepal, July 26, 2007

Nepal's monarch awaits his fate

Damakant Jayshi

Nepal's monarch awaits his fateBy Damakant Jayshi KATHMANDU - The republican wind that swept King Gyanendra from power last year continues to blow strongly through Nepal. The king has been publicly humiliated three times in the past two weeks. His highly publicized three-day diamond-jubilee birthday celebration on July 7 fell flat, with the government, top bureaucrats, even the once loyal Nepali army, and diplomatic corps staying away. Some 700 well-wishers did turn up, most of them loyalists. But it was a far cry from the days when thousands of people lined up outside the palace gates to salute their king. The next day, nearly everyone who had been invited was present at the traditional bhoto jatra function for the Rato Machhindranath deity presided over by Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala as head of state. Until this year the duty had always been the privilege of the Nepali king.

Last week, outgoing US Ambassador to Nepal James F Moriarty appealed to Gyanendra to abdicate if he wished to save the monarchy. During the pro-democracy struggle, the US ambassador was openly pro-king. He had put pressure on Nepal's political parties to work with Gyanendra although the king had usurped absolute power in February 2005. Addressing his last press conference in Kathmandu on July 13, Moriarty said: "If he wants to save the institution of monarchy, he has to take a dramatic step." This was within days of Koirala's call for the king to abdicate in favor of his grandson, who turns five years old on Monday. Nepal's influential military also supports the idea as Gyanendra's son, the unpopular Crown Prince Paras, has a reputation for drunken, angry behavior. Only two years ago, with the army behind him, the king and Nepal's monarchy seemed invincible. Now hardly a day passes without media reports calling for an end to monarchy. Not all of them are from Maoist supporters. According to a recent survey, those who want monarchy in some form - constitutional, ceremonial, or "reformed" - are currently outnumbered.

And Nepal's 240-year-old monarchy has not recovered from the tragic massacre in the royal palace in June 2001. A majority of people do not believe the verdict of a government-appointed probe team that the then-heir to the throne, Gyanendra's nephew, killed nine members of his family before shooting himself. Krishna Khanal, professor of political science at Tribhuvan University, said the reasons are very obvious: "Monarchy and democracy can never go together in Nepal, and our history post-1950 is proof of that." Krishna Pahadi, a respected human-rights defender, minces no words when it comes to expressing his views on monarchy. The monarchy has no place at all in new Nepal, he insisted. Pahadi, who was named a prisoner of conscience by the international human-rights group Amnesty International during the king's absolute rule, said: "The Parliament, which has been reinstated on the strength of the popular movement against monarchy, should set up a tribunal to try King Gyanendra for his crimes against the people as the head of the government." Pahadi argued that this would result in the king (and his family) either fleeing or being convicted, and would give Parliament an opportunity to abolish the monarchy.

The Nepali army, which privately spoke of holding a referendum on the monarchy, has now grudgingly accepted the idea of a Constituent Assembly, chosen in a free and fair election (without intimidation by Maoists), deciding the fate of the institution. A Constituent Assembly election is scheduled for November 22. But right-wing Hindu groups and parties close to the royal palace insist that only a referendum, if required, can decide the future of Nepal's monarchy. "Since there is such a concerted and calculated hate campaign against monarchy, let us go for a referendum," said Kamal Thapa, leader of the pro-palace Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP-Nepal). However, Pahadi, who is against the idea of a referendum, calling it a meaningless exercise, feels that as long as the king remains unpunished there cannot be a Constituent Assembly election, "let alone a free and fair one". "The mood of the nation is for a democratic republic, and unless the king is punished for his obvious crimes against people, this will not be possible. Moreover, he will try to prevent the Constituent Assembly election," he warned. Like Pahadi, Thapa does not believe that an election of the Constituent Assembly could be impartial because of threats from Nepal's powerful Maoists. The RPP-Nepal leader has put his weight behind a "reformed" monarchy. He has argued that it would serve as a cushion for democracy against the ultra-left and provide unity and stability in the country. Significantly, the army, still suspicious of Maoist intentions, would also be happy to have a monarchy in some form, according to most political commentators. While the debate on monarchy rages on, all eyes are now on the Constituent Assembly election. That is, if it is held as scheduled. Or held at all.

Source: Asia Times, July 27, 2007

Finding A Peaceful Solution

The eastern Terai covering Mithila, the centre of ancient civilisation and the land of King Janak, has been facing constant turbulence since the past few months. A number of armed groups have emerged one after another and have been resorting to violent activities, creating anarchy in the areas stretching from the Bagmati in the west to Koshi in the east. The government, right after violence erupted in January this year, has been trying to bring all the groups concerned to the negotiating table. The government, in a bid to find a peaceful solution to the problem there, even made changes in the interim statute 2063 and agreed to increase the number of electoral constituencies in the Terai. Unfortunately, none of the groups has responded to the government. Consequently, the problem has been dragging on, and the situation has gone from bad to worse in some parts of the Terai, raising fears about whether the Constituent Assembly elections will be held within the stipulated timeframe. Although many of the armed groups active in the Terai have broken up into splinter factions, the efforts of the government have failed so far as it has been giving more emphasis to a peaceful solution. Now that the CA elections are just four months away, it has become urgent to resolve the Terai problem to create a peaceful environment. The government has initiated some serious steps to bring the situation back to normalcy by interacting with the locals of the region.

In this context, Minister for Peace and Reconstruction and convenor of the government talks team Ram Chandra Poudel has arrived in Janakpur and invited all the agitating groups to sit for dialogue to settle the problems. Addressing a number of programmes organised there on Monday, Minister Poudel reiterated the government's commitment to meet the relevant demands of the Terai people through talks and hold the CA elections within the stipulated time. The present eight-party government truly represents the people who supported and fought for the April uprising in 2006 to usher in a new era of democracy in Nepal, and what it says represents the people's voice. The agitating groups of the Terai should realise this and sit for dialogue to sort out all prevalent differences so as to realise the dreams of the Nepali people who want to see a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Nepal. We have already witnessed that violence causes only destruction and finds no solution to any problem. Let us hope Minister Poudel's visit to Janakpur will bring in the desired optimism.

Source: The Rising Nepal, July 26, 2007

Diplomats And Dilemma

Minister for External Affairs Ms. Sahana Pradhan conferred with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala Tuesday to sort out issues concerning the appointment of envoys to the different countries where Nepal has its resident missions. Minister of External Affairs Ms. Pradhan apprised the prime minister of the ambassadorial posts sought by the Maoists in such countries as South Korea, France, the United Kingdom and Denmark. The Prime Minister, as reported, does not seem to be persuaded by the demands made by the Maoists. The differences over the sharing of diplomatic appointments to the major countries among the political parties have created hurdles in finalising the process for sending envoys to the different countries where Nepal has vital stakes in serving the nation's larger economic and strategic interests. Needless to mention, the resident missions in countries like India, USA and UK that are consistently backing Nepal in its transformative process into a democratic and prosperous country have been lying vacant for almost a year and a half.

This has several diplomatic implications with negative tones. Since the case of Nepal, especially in the context of its democratic political transformation, needs to be ably explained and presented in the international community. The absence of ambassadors to represent the country in meaningful terms is a case of diplomatic deficit. This can be attributed to the poor performance of the government itself to gather consensus on such a vital issue and arrive at a timely conclusion. It is to be recalled that the list of likely candidates had been drawn up some moths ago, but it was due to the objections raised by the Maoists that the process got stuck. The Interim Constitution requires the nominees for ambassadorial assignments to face parliamentary scrutiny and win legislative approval before being confirmed for the posts. This is a very important provision incorporated in the basic law of the land as it can contribute to selecting able and qualified persons for diplomatic assignments. As stressed by the minister of the external affairs, it is high time the political parties arrived at a consensus to appoint envoys to the different countries to head the diplomatic missions soon. This, however, cannot be done once the Election Commission issues a code of ethics for the polls to the constituent assembly to be adhered to by the government itself.

Source: The Rising Nepal, July 26, 2007

National Urbanisation Policy : Proper Implementation Needed

Rajesh Man KC

Unplanned and unmanaged urbanisation has become a matter of global concern. Nepal in this regard is no exception. Rapid urban growth without proper management has created urban environmental problems, triggering health and other social problems in the cities. MigrationThe migration of people from the rural to the urban areas is growing rapidly due to the scarcity of employment opportunities and absence of physical infrastructure and law and order in the rural areas. As a consequence, major cities, including Kathmandu, are facing environmental degradation. Mainly, unplanned construction of buildings, increasing environmental pollution, haphazard exploitation of natural resources and the depletion of fertile lands and forest resources are some of the major consequences of unplanned urbanisation.

In this connection, major industrial cities like Birgunj, Biratnagar, Dharan, Pokhara and Kathmandu are facing the risk of environment pollution. And due to the increasing environmental degradation in these cities, should a natural calamity strike, the devastation would be unimaginable. The major cities are growing in such an unsystematic manner that in the event of an earthquake in a city like Kathmandu, there would not even be a safe place to run for cover. Geologists are repeatedly warning that if a disastrous incident like an earthquake of 1934 were to occur in Kathmandu, over 75 per cent of the houses in the capital would be destroyed, besides unimaginable loss of lives and property. However, it would be wise and appropriate to initiate effective preventive measures rather than to worry about such disastrous incidents. Indeed, most of the building structures in Kathmandu may appear beautiful, but physically they are neither secure nor sustainable. This is because most of such buildings are constructed in an unsystematic manner, using low qualitative construction materials and built without properly consulting good engineers or technologists. Instead, old Nepali style buildings constructed with appropriate or indigenous technology using locally available resources as well as raw materials seem more durable, reliable and sustainable.

Thus, the haphazard construction of buildings has resulted in unsafe houses, increasing population pressure, piles of garbage and highly polluting vehicles plying on the narrow lanes and roads of the cities. Also adversely affecting the environment of Kathmandu has been the pollution from the brick kilns, garment and carpet factories.A recent study has shown that increasing air pollution and piles of garbage in the major cities of Kathmandu have given rise to respiratory diseases and heart problems. So if environmental degradation is to continue in the same manner, and urgent preventive measures are not taken, most of the inhabitants of Kathmandu would be affected by fatal diseases.Although the cities are facing environmental problems, the migration of people from the rural areas to the cities has not stopped. Migration has only increased because of the growing violence in different parts of the country. It may be recalled here that the recently published UN report has revealed that the urbanisation process in Nepal is the fastest in South Asian countries. The report adds that the present urbanisation process in Nepal is increasing at the ratio of 4.4 per cent whereas it is 2.2 per cent in Sri Lanka, the lowest in South Asia.

Nepal has one metropolitan city, three sub-metropolitan cities and 58 municipalities, occupying 14 per cent of the total population. According to the 1981 census, Kathmandu Valley had occupied 5 per cent of the total land of Nepal. But in 2001, it had increased to 7 per cent. It shows that the population pressure on Kathmandu is rapidly increasing. And due to the increasing population pressure, the population of Kathmndu Valley has crossed 2.5 million. Obviously, it is not bad or inappropriate for the urban areas to expand, given that the bulk of the population lives in the rural areas. But under the pretext of urbanisation, we cannot undermine the importance of historical and cultural monuments or deplete the forest resources or other natural resources. Hence, it may not be good to expand the urban areas as it only makes them prone to natural disasters or calamities. Code of conductSo it is urgent that we enforce laws and a code of conduct regarding development and construction of buildings in the towns. In this connection, a National Urbanisation Policy has been formulated with a view to managing and systematising the existing urbanisation process and making the metropolitan cities clean, secure and prosperous.

Source: The Rising Nepal, July 26

Diplomacy : What Does The Latest Trend Indicate?

Madhavji Shrestha

It is high time Nepal's politically authoritative players were aware of the recent developments in the diplomatic arena. Very glaringly, the initial years of the 21st century are witnessing the dismantling of the strongly fortified walls of traditional diplomacy. It is evident that the growing supremacy of the common people combined with the enhancement of knowledge on international affairs even among the masses have led to shifting trends in the conduct of diplomacy, which was formerly considered an exclusive business of government-authorised diplomatic officials. Public diplomacyThe fundamental right to information enjoyed by the people in general has also led to the development of this new trend. As a consequence, the much pronounced public diplomacy and track-two diplomacy (people-to-people diplomacy) are fast gaining ground. The first relates to the people's inherent right to remain informed about the government's actions concerning external affairs, and the second is, becoming helpful in making international relations people-initiated to solve problems. Numerous developments can be advanced to support this trend.

Alongside this development, newer concepts and practices are making headway in the realm of diplomacy and its related fields. The old mindset and attitude are giving in to new thinking and approach. Straightforwardness and openness, instead of working behind the screen and remaining aloof in diplomatic business, have now come to stay in recent years. "Soft Power" and "Soft Ear" are now figuring prominently in diplomatic activities around the world. Dr. Joseph S. Nye Jr., a reputed expert on international affairs at Harvard University, is a leading figure who has been propagating the concept of soft power. He says soft power, as opposed to hard power, is "not the power to coerce, bully, browbeat and bribe, but the power to attract, to persuade, to influence through wisdom, example and attentiveness." In the present day world, excessive reliance on the hard power of economic strength and military might for any breathtaking achievement on the diplomatic front is neither recommended nor appreciated by the civilised society. Of course, hard power can still make the day under some unavoidable circumstances, but the solution arrived at through the use of this power will not be ever lasting, nor appear acceptable to all the concerned and affected people. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has, in his recently published write-up, put his trust on the wisdom of the soft ear which he has described as "discernment ? seeing a person or situation in the round, the bad with the good, and being able to establish rapport and an effective working relationship despite disagreement, however sharp". He believes in "engagement, dialogue before confrontation." This shows the uprightness of understanding and rapprochement in diplomatic activity. Interestingly, his belief to act accordingly to solve the problems facing the UN at the moment is beyond any doubt and debate.

The development of the softer tendency and behaviour in recent days largely owes itself to the increased awareness of humanitarian consideration. Certainly, this trend would reign supreme and stand above the narrow nationalistic feelings and ethnic divisiveness that still unfortunately torture humans in various underdeveloped regions of this planet. Social consciousness has to grow on a global scale to eliminate anything that frets the human society. Today, human concern is omnipresent in every aspect of global activity. Diplomacy and its relevant concerns are not outside its circumference. In reality, diplomacy is a "human intensive" activity. It is conducted largely through personal communications and individual actions, evaluations and decisions as well as concomitant activity in the course of carrying on diplomatic duties and functions.The requirement of diplomacy for spontaneous human involvement is usually presented as one of the key conditions for the diplomatic success of wider implication and greater dimension. Still the core need of diplomacy is closer human interactions as well as human touch. This, in turn, necessitates more human communications and greater human contacts that greatly depend on skills and abilities learnt and acquired by diplomats in question. The need to measure and examine these qualities should never be sidelined under any circumstance. Importantly, the overriding need to understand intentionality is of utmost significance, whether it be in modern diplomacy or post modern diplomacy. The human component in diplomatic dealings and concerns would never diminish even if one were to rely on the recent tools of information technology. The correct intentionality can be properly judged only if there is sufficient human touch and interaction. No other possibility appears before us than human contact and connectivity.Most recently, diplomacy on the one side is being conducted openly and, so to say, in a transparent way, and is becoming more public oriented. On the other, it requires a human approach to gain success of any consideration despite the predominance being taken away by the rapid development of information technology designed and specifically meant for it. Every nation desiring to send abroad appropriate ambassadors and envoys takes into serious consideration these highly needed qualities.

Virtual diplomacyWhile considered the emerging global environment, the Nepalese government needs to be highly selective in assigning ambassadors and envoys keeping in view the qualities and capabilities required of them in the recently developed context of diplomatic behaviour and practices if any perceptible success is to be expected from them. If not, it would be far better to conduct diplomacy for carrying out any sort of bilateral and international relations and related affairs through the use of e-diplomacy and/or virtual diplomacy through cyberspace. The Foreign Ministry, as the principal agent of the government responsible for conducting Nepali diplomacy, needs to make a definite choice between human intensive diplomacy and an electronics driven one. For the former, the country needs people enriched with well-rounded diplomatic skills and knowledge, whereas for the latter ,diploproject equipped with diploportals should be on hand to see it materialise. Could the authorities at the helm take it as their circumstance-led decision? This must remain very high on the agenda.

Source: The Rising Nepal, July 26, 2007

Fear psychosis

You reap what you have sown. The Maoists sowed fear during the insurgency, and therefore they are suffering from fear psychosis. For more than a decade, they connived, sabotaged, killed and exploited innocent people in the name of "people's war". The situation has taken a full circle with the Maoists in the government since last year. Time has changed so much that people are prepared to accept the Maoists as a responsible political force. The political parties have provided ample space to them in the parliament and the cabinet, so as to assimilate them into mainstream politics. But the Maoists themselves have been struggling, so far unsuccessfully, to come out of their wartime mindset. They see conspiracy in everything. If they fail to gain confidence, they will start distrusting their own party cadres and well-
wishers.

Last September, the Maoists went on a rampage believing that Nepal Army was bringing three trucks of loaded arms from India. It turned out to be a huge embarrassment for the Maoist leadership when they learnt that the trucks being brought were for the purpose of UN peace keeping mission and were totally empty. Then, they were overreacting to the situation. However, the overreaction has taken the form of fear psychosis. The Maoists have gone to the extent of holding a press conference and are threatening to quit the government just because Nepal Army deployed soldiers for their personal security. The Maoists have claimed that Nepal Army was hatching a conspiracy against them by sending troops trained at the infamous Bhairabnath
battalion.

The concern of the Maoist ministers cannot be completely ignored. They have all the rights to be apprehensive about their own security. However, they have jumped into a conclusion too early. Without cross-checking whether the troops were from Bhairabnath battalion or not, and whether the soldiers deployed for their security were trustworthy or not, the Maoist ministers sought immediate meeting with the prime minister. And when the prime minister refused to entertain them, they held the press conference threatening to quit the government. Meanwhile, Nepal Army issuing a press statement has made it clear that the soldiers deployed for security of Maoist ministers were from Singhanath battalion at Tokha. It is high time the Maoists stopped jumping into early conclusions and kept good faith in the intention of the political parties and the people. They must understand that it was for the sake of restoring peace in the country that the people and the parties brought them into mainstream politics. If the eight parties fail to build trust within the coalition, the country will fail miserably, which will ultimately provide an opportunity for the regressive force to raise its head.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, July 25, 2007

No Strategy to Fight Maoists

Ashok K Mehta

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is an able and learned man, singly responsible for the economic emancipation and rise of India. But lately he has made some impromptu statements on security which make one wonder whether he is well advised. That Indian Muslims are not immunised against engaging in acts of international Islamist terrorism was exposed last week. Mr Singh's latest defence and loss of sleep over that community's involvement was politically incorrect. It is clear that he and his Home Minister Shivraj Patil take internal security rather lightly; otherwise we ought to have seen some 'terrorist catches' in three years of major terror attacks causing at least 300 deaths.

Not long ago, he told China's President Hu Jintao that the people of India regarded China as their greatest neighbour even after Beijing has repeatedly pressed its claim on Arunachal Pradesh. Last year, at a Chief Ministers' conference, he described the Naxalite/Maoist threat as the single biggest challenge to internal security. Surprisingly, there is no visible action to deal with the Maoist challenge which, according to the former Home Secretary, is not a national problem. That is the reason the Maoist threat has not been met with coordinated and effective State and Central response.

The 1967 Naxalite movement was confined to West Bengal and crushed there in 1970 but its ideology of protracted armed struggle to capture power survived. It spread to Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Its area of influence has increased from 55 districts in nine States in 2003 to 156 districts in 13 States in 2004, had to 182 districts in 16 States today. The Asian Centre for Human Rights, in its latest Naxal Conflict Monitor, has reported that violence levels are down 45 per cent during the first half of 2007 compared to the same period last year, yet it says the conflict is intensifying due to increase in casualties among security forces. It identifies Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand with the highest levels of violence and attributes the continuing armed struggle to failure of governance and abysmal implementation of schemes and projects.

While Maoist influence is certainly spreading with their claims that by 2010-15, 30 to 35 per cent of India will be under their control, violence levels have temporarily dipped. The threat postulated (actually exaggerated) five years ago by intelligence agencies of a Compact Revolutionary Zone or Red Corridor from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh is a pipe dream, especially after the Maoists in Nepal have upset the ideological applecart by joining the political mainstream. Why did intelligence agencies exaggerate the Red threat?

The contours of change in Maoist grand strategy emerged after its month-long Ninth Unity Congress earlier this year attended by representatives from 16 States. An 'Action Plan' was dramatically unleashed last month through a pincer of a two-day economic blockade and lightening attacks against police stations and infrastructure. The Maoists announced that these were in protest against the Government's economic policies, in particular against the imposition of Special Economic Zones. Both these strategies are leaves out of the Nepali Maoists' 'Peoples War Book' of paralysing the state. That is precisely what the Maoists were able to do to parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

In 2006, an economic blockade of smaller intensity had seriously affected commercial activity. This year though, the strategy was bolder - destruction of infrastructure, prevention of movement of strategic minerals like bauxite, iron ore, steel, and partial to total disruption of commercial activity. The economic cost of the Maoist blockade is estimated to be around Rs 1,000 crore. In May, the Bastar blackout cost Chhattisgarh Rs 2000 crore. Targetting infrastructure was a favoured Nepali Maoist tactic that destroyed nearly Rs 500 crore of roads, bridges and telecommunication facilities in a country with so little of it.

The other element of copycat disruption is the Maoists' capability of planning and mounting attacks by up to 2,000 combatants and overwhelming police posts. The Jehanabad jailbreak in Bihar in 2005 and the elimination of Rani Bodli police post in Chhattisgarh in 2007 are powerful reflections of military strength and motivation among the Maoists. The Nepal Maoists are reported to have set up joint training and logistic bases in Champaran, Madhubani and Sitamarhi. All Left-wing extremists including the Maoists in India are known to have links with ISI, DG Inter-Forces Intelligence (Bangladesh) and LTTE, though Nepali Maoists have said they have no connections with them. The irony in the Maoist class struggle is that majority of their victims belong to the very class whose case they espouse.

Citigroup, an international financial services company which monitors Maoist activities, has estimated that without an effective deterrent to contain and roll back their surge, Maoists could not only hamper economic growth but also restrict FDI inflow. At stake could be power projects and steel plants worth Rs 2,640 billion in Orissa and Chhattisgarh. Despite the apparent contradictions in strategy and goals and lack of flexibility compared to their ideological kin in Nepal, the Naxals are a united revolutionary force with mass appeal in rural areas which they hope to extend to urban regions too.

The Maoists' success is the direct outcome of the State and Central Government failures. Whenever the Government has been serious and recognised the problem, it has been able to contain or crush separatist movements from Punjab to the North-East. The inhibition in acting against Maoists does not stem from the fact that law and order is a State subject or that 16 States are involved or that there is a nexus between Maoists, the police and political leaders; it is lack of political will and a national strategy.

On paper there is no shortage of ideas and plans. Nor is there any dearth of funds and structures to address the grievances of people in the tribal areas. Elaborate and high-powered Central and State level task forces have been created, so impressive that the Maoist menace should have disappeared yesterday. Unfortunately, the grand 14-point National Action Plan is just notional. The first line of defence, the State police, has not been empowered to face up to the challenge. There is neither a counter-Maoist operational grid nor a Central intelligence network in the Maoist-affected States. Arming the locals to fight the enemy is not novel and has been experimented from Jammu & Kashmir to Nagaland. In Jharkhand, Orissa and notably the Salwa Judum's self-defence campaign, reportedly a spontaneous movement in Chhattisgarh, have shown erratic success.

Ask anyone following the rise and spread of Maoists in India, the reasons for their growing sophistication in psywar and firepower and increasing sway over tribal and rural folk, you will get this answer - there is no political will, no strategy and failure of implementation. Only yesterday, the Maoists lured security forces in Dantewada, Bastar into a deadly trap. Let us not forget, the Prime Minister has identified the Maoists as India's most serious internal security challenge. Unless we want the Army sucked into Maoist-affected States also, it is high time to make the 14-Point Action Plan work. Meanwhile, a fresh and independent assessment of the scale of Maoist challenge is required to refine strategy.

Source: The Pioneer, July 11, 2007

No strategy to fight Maoists

Ashok K Mehta


Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is an able and learned man, singly responsible for the economic emancipation and rise of India. But lately he has made some impromptu statements on security which make one wonder whether he is well advised. That Indian Muslims are not immunised against engaging in acts of international Islamist terrorism was exposed last week. Mr Singh's latest defence and loss of sleep over that community's involvement was politically incorrect. It is clear that he and his Home Minister Shivraj Patil take internal security rather lightly; otherwise we ought to have seen some 'terrorist catches' in three years of major terror attacks causing at least 300 deaths.

Not long ago, he told China's President Hu Jintao that the people of India regarded China as their greatest neighbour even after Beijing has repeatedly pressed its claim on Arunachal Pradesh. Last year, at a Chief Ministers' conference, he described the Naxalite/Maoist threat as the single biggest challenge to internal security. Surprisingly, there is no visible action to deal with the Maoist challenge which, according to the former Home Secretary, is not a national problem. That is the reason the Maoist threat has not been met with coordinated and effective State and Central response.

The 1967 Naxalite movement was confined to West Bengal and crushed there in 1970 but its ideology of protracted armed struggle to capture power survived. It spread to Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Its area of influence has increased from 55 districts in nine States in 2003 to 156 districts in 13 States in 2004, had to 182 districts in 16 States today. The Asian Centre for Human Rights, in its latest Naxal Conflict Monitor, has reported that violence levels are down 45 per cent during the first half of 2007 compared to the same period last year, yet it says the conflict is intensifying due to increase in casualties among security forces. It identifies Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand with the highest levels of violence and attributes the continuing armed struggle to failure of governance and abysmal implementation of schemes and projects.

While Maoist influence is certainly spreading with their claims that by 2010-15, 30 to 35 per cent of India will be under their control, violence levels have temporarily dipped. The threat postulated (actually exaggerated) five years ago by intelligence agencies of a Compact Revolutionary Zone or Red Corridor from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh is a pipe dream, especially after the Maoists in Nepal have upset the ideological applecart by joining the political mainstream. Why did intelligence agencies exaggerate the Red threat?


The contours of change in Maoist grand strategy emerged after its month-long Ninth Unity Congress earlier this year attended by representatives from 16 States. An 'Action Plan' was dramatically unleashed last month through a pincer of a two-day economic blockade and lightening attacks against police stations and infrastructure. The Maoists announced that these were in protest against the Government's economic policies, in particular against the imposition of Special Economic Zones. Both these strategies are leaves out of the Nepali Maoists' 'Peoples War Book' of paralysing the state. That is precisely what the Maoists were able to do to parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

In 2006, an economic blockade of smaller intensity had seriously affected commercial activity. This year though, the strategy was bolder - destruction of infrastructure, prevention of movement of strategic minerals like bauxite, iron ore, steel, and partial to total disruption of commercial activity. The economic cost of the Maoist blockade is estimated to be around Rs 1,000 crore. In May, the Bastar blackout cost Chhattisgarh Rs 2000 crore. Targetting infrastructure was a favoured Nepali Maoist tactic that destroyed nearly Rs 500 crore of roads, bridges and telecommunication facilities in a country with so little of it.

The other element of copycat disruption is the Maoists' capability of planning and mounting attacks by up to 2,000 combatants and overwhelming police posts. The Jehanabad jailbreak in Bihar in 2005 and the elimination of Rani Bodli police post in Chhattisgarh in 2007 are powerful reflections of military strength and motivation among the Maoists. The Nepal Maoists are reported to have set up joint training and logistic bases in Champaran, Madhubani and Sitamarhi. All Left-wing extremists including the Maoists in India are known to have links with ISI, DG Inter-Forces Intelligence (Bangladesh) and LTTE, though Nepali Maoists have said they have no connections with them. The irony in the Maoist class struggle is that majority of their victims belong to the very class whose case they espouse.

Citigroup, an international financial services company which monitors Maoist activities, has estimated that without an effective deterrent to contain and roll back their surge, Maoists could not only hamper economic growth but also restrict FDI inflow. At stake could be power projects and steel plants worth Rs 2,640 billion in Orissa and Chhattisgarh. Despite the apparent contradictions in strategy and goals and lack of flexibility compared to their ideological kin in Nepal, the Naxals are a united revolutionary force with mass appeal in rural areas which they hope to extend to urban regions too.

The Maoists' success is the direct outcome of the State and Central Government failures. Whenever the Government has been serious and recognised the problem, it has been able to contain or crush separatist movements from Punjab to the North-East. The inhibition in acting against Maoists does not stem from the fact that law and order is a State subject or that 16 States are involved or that there is a nexus between Maoists, the police and political leaders; it is lack of political will and a national strategy.

On paper there is no shortage of ideas and plans. Nor is there any dearth of funds and structures to address the grievances of people in the tribal areas. Elaborate and high-powered Central and State level task forces have been created, so impressive that the Maoist menace should have disappeared yesterday. Unfortunately, the grand 14-point National Action Plan is just notional. The first line of defence, the State police, has not been empowered to face up to the challenge. There is neither a counter-Maoist operational grid nor a Central intelligence network in the Maoist-affected States. Arming the locals to fight the enemy is not novel and has been experimented from Jammu & Kashmir to Nagaland. In Jharkhand, Orissa and notably the Salwa Judum's self-defence campaign, reportedly a spontaneous movement in Chhattisgarh, have shown erratic success.
Ask anyone following the rise and spread of Maoists in India, the reasons for their growing sophistication in psywar and firepower and increasing sway over tribal and rural folk, you will get this answer - there is no political will, no strategy and failure of implementation. Only yesterday, the Maoists lured security forces in Dantewada, Bastar into a deadly trap. Let us not forget, the Prime Minister has identified the Maoists as India's most serious internal security challenge. Unless we want the Army sucked into Maoist-affected States also, it is high time to make the 14-Point Action Plan work. Meanwhile, a fresh and independent assessment of the scale of Maoist challenge is required to refine strategy.

Source: The Pioneer, July 11, 2007

Nepal's Troubled Tarai Region

Unrest in the Tarai plains has exposed the weaknesses of Nepal’s peace process, could derail elections for a constituent assembly in November and, if not properly addressed, could start a new form of conflict. Madhesis – plainspeople who are some one third of the country’s population – have protested, sometimes violently, against the discrimination that has in effect excluded them from public life. Weeks of demonstrations and clashes between political rivals recently left several dozen dead. The government has offered to address issues such as increased electoral representation, affirmative action for marginalised groups and federalism but has dragged its feet over implementing dialogue. Tension had been building for several years but was largely ignored by the political elites and international observers, and the scale of the protest shocked even its own leaders. The problems will only be resolved by strengthening the national political process and making it both inclusive and responsive – starting with free and fair elections to a constituent assembly later this year.

The Tarai plains stretch the length of the southern border and are home to half the total population, including many non-Madhesis (both indigenous ethnic groups and recent migrants from the hills). With comparatively good infrastructure, agriculture, industrial development and access to India across the open border, the Tarai is crucial to the economy. It is also an area of great political importance, both as a traditional base for the mainstream parties and as the only road link between otherwise inaccessible hill and mountain districts.
The leaders of the Madhesi movement face difficult choices: they have mobilised public support but have also angered powerful constituencies. They now need to decide between a strategy of accommodation or continued confrontation. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has emerged as a powerful umbrella group but lacks an organisational base and clear agenda. It is entering the electoral fray but if it is to challenge the established parties, it must first deal with rival Madhesi politicians competing for the same votes. There has also been a proliferation of Madhesi armed groups; some have expanded significantly in numbers, and their strategy and attitudes will affect the political process.


The mood among Tarai residents is increasingly confrontational, with collapse of trust between most Madhesis and the government. Most believe that further violence is likely. Unresolved grievances and the hangover from the Maoist insurgency, especially the lack of reconciliation and the greater tolerance for violence, make a volatile mix. The unrest has given a glimmer of hope to diehard royalists and Hindu fundamentalists, including some from across the border, who see it as a chance to disrupt the peace process.
The mainstream parties have changed their rhetoric but are as reluctant as ever to take action that would make for a more inclusive system. Strikes in the Tarai squeezed Kathmandu but not enough to force immediate concessions. Mainstream parties, particularly the Nepali Congress, rely on their Tarai electoral base but are unsure how to deal with the new state of flux. Unable to compete with Madhesi groups in radicalism, they have also been ineffective at communicating the positive steps they have taken, such as reforming citizenship laws. Competition within the governing coalition is hindering any bold moves. For the Maoists, the Tarai violence was a wake-up call: much of it was directed against their cadres, whose appearance of dominance was shattered. Nevertheless, they remain well organised, politically coherent and determined to reassert themselves.

Engaging in serious negotiations will be a delicate process, with no party wanting to lose face. But the key issues are clear and still offer room for a reasonable compromise:



fair representation: the critical issue is ensuring the electoral system gives Madhesis a serious stake in the constituent assembly;
federalism and autonomy: the government’s commitment to federalism has yet to translate into action; without pre-empting the constituent assembly, steps are needed to demonstrate more serious intent, such as formation of a technical research commission that could develop a knowledge base for future discussions;
rebuilding trust: confidence in national and local government will only come if there is decent governance, public security based on local community consent and improved delivery of services;
redress for heavy-handed suppression of protests: demands for compensation, honouring of dead protestors and follow-through on a commission of enquiry need to be met; and
steps towards affirmative action: some immediate moves to increase Madhesi representation in parties and state bodies could pave the way for longer-term measures to remove inequalities.

Fixing the Tarai means first fixing some issues in Kathmandu and then dealing not only with Madhesis but all excluded groups. Cross-party unity in listening to grievances and pushing for their resolution through a legitimate, elected constituent assembly is the only way to a lasting solution. This requires a change in outlook and a delicate political balancing act: the Kathmandu government must do some things immediately in order to earn Madhesi trust but deciding any major issues before the elections to the constituent assembly could compromise the constitutional process. Despite the instability, elections are still possible and essential. But reshaping state identity and institutions to make all Nepali citizens feel part of the nation is a long-term task that will present challenges in the constituent assembly and beyond.

RECOMMENDATIONS
To the Government of Nepal:

1. Address the reasonable demands for political participation of all excluded groups (not just those whose protests have forced attention) by:
(a) undertaking to discuss and resolve grievances not only with protest leaders but also with concerned parliamentarians, local community representatives and civil society representatives;
(b) starting back-channel communications to draw armed factions into peaceful dialogue, while emphasising that they must sign up to the political process; and
(c) using all available leverage to control armed groups and other organisations founded in reaction to the Madhesi movement, draw them into negotiations and prevent the communalisation of Tarai issues.

2. Show willingness to make concessions on the basis of equal rights for all citizens by:
(a) revising the electoral system to ensure fair representation of Madhesis and all other marginalised groups, including a fresh delineation of constituency boundaries if the mixed electoral system is retained;
(b) improving communication, ensuring the government’s approach is clearly explained and that there are means to invite and pay attention to citizens’ concerns;
(c) sending senior party leaders to the Tarai – as eight parties together not individually – to explain what the government has done and is doing to improve representation and make the constituent assembly a meaningful, inclusive exercise;
(d) implementing some immediate affirmative action measures to boost Madhesi presence in the civil service;
(e) initiating discussion on options for federalism, their implications and how to implement them; and
(f) honouring Madhesis killed in protests, compensating their families and those injured, supporting the commission of enquiry into the state’s handling of the movement and guaranteeing its recommendations will not be ignored.

3. Demonstrate firm commitment to constituent assembly elections by:
(a) agreeing promptly on an acceptable electoral system, preferably by ensuring the Electoral Constituency Delimitation Commission delivers a revised proposal within its extended deadline that addresses Madhesi fears of gerrymandering;
(b) announcing a realistic election timetable;
(c) developing election security plans with support of all political constituencies and communities; and
(d) insisting that other issues should not be addressed by further interim constitutional amendments but instead be left to the constituent assembly as the sole legitimate forum for resolving them.

4. Restore law and order and rebuild trust in local administration and security forces by:
(a) improving community relations through meetings between chief district officers (CDOs) and Madhesi political actors and intellectuals; holding meetings to listen and respond to the public’s concerns; and ensuring that local government offices are well staffed, performing basic duties and more accessible;
(b) balancing deployment of armed police with a greater emphasis on civil and community policing;
(c) starting discussion on using affirmative action to redress ethnic and regional imbalances in the security forces through recruitment, training and promotion; and
(d) considering the transfer of district administrators and police chiefs responsible for excessive security action and the appointment of more Madhesi officials in sensitive districts.

To Madhesi Political Leaders and Opinion-makers:

5. Continue pressing for fair electoral representation and inclusion within the framework of the constituent assembly by:
(a) rejecting violence, devising forms of protest that do not adversely affect the economic and social life of people in the Tarai and bringing armed groups into the political process;
(b) taking part in the elections to the constituent assembly;
(c) showing flexibility on the new electoral system if the government commits itself to fair representation; and
(d) cooperating in the commission of enquiry and seeking to redress grievances by judicial means.

6. Avoid replicating exclusive models at the regional level and work to reduce communal tensions by:
(a) making space for women’s voices in the movement and on negotiating delegations;
(b) ensuring representation of Muslims, Tarai janajati communities and all Hindu castes including Dalits; and
(c) not insisting on a unitary Madhesi identity if it is unacceptable to some communities.

To the National Political Parties:

7. Consult excluded groups within and beyond parties and start to explore detailed policies of concern to them such as federalism and affirmative action.
8. Wherever possible build eight-party consensus and also involve parties not represented in government, including the legislature’s official opposition.
9. Implement Comprehensive Peace Agreement commitments on representation of marginalised communities within parties, explore ways to make party leaderships more representative and pay greater attention to the concerns of Madhesi and other activists within parties.

To the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN):

10. Extend technical support to inter-party discussions on development of revised electoral models.

To the International Community:

11. Continue to support the peace process, stressing respect for the principles enshrined in peace agreements and urging full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the interim constitution.
12. Maintain momentum for elections with both positive political pressure and practical assistance, welcome the announcement of a realistic election timetable and maintain strong public support for the process.
13. Support resolving the demands of Madhesis and other groups within the framework of the peace agreement and following its principles.
14. Donors offering development and peace process assistance should consider additional help for building Madhesi civil society capacity and supporting serious, independent academic research into issues affecting all marginalised communities.

Source: International Crisis Group, Brussels, July 9, 2007

Protect ya neck

The constituent assembly (CA) elections are just four and a half months away. Ideas for polarisation have been floated. Divided parties have made efforts at reunification, encouraged or pressured by friendly forces within and outside the country. The Nepal Sadbhavana Party (Anandidevi) and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party recently merged. After the NSP had supported regression and joined governments after the royal coup of October 4, 2002, a faction had broken away to form the NSP (Anandidevi), which joined the anti-regression Seven-Party Alliance. The leaders of the parent Nepali Congress (NC) and the NC (D) have intensified efforts at achieving reunification as they think it is necessary to improve the Congress poll prospects. Other suggested realignments include a pro-republican front, a Left front, a front of rightists and centrists, or a non-left front, including also one or more of the agitating Madhesi groups.

Amid all this medley, it seems, the popular view favours strengthening the unity of the eight-party alliance (EPA), at least until the CA elections. The case for this is strongest as it was these parties that clinched the historic 12-point agreement, spearheaded Jana Andolan-2, signed the eight-point agreement, the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, etc. and made the Interim Constitution and formed the interim legislature and government. The onus of translating these agreements and commitments into action in letter and spirit therefore falls squarely on the EPA. Unless the CA polls are successfully held and the understanding between the EPA constituents is retained, it will be difficult to carry out the pledges made to the people. Those who are outside the EPA might choose to strike out on their own as the CA polls get closer. However, the EPA owes it to the people who put it in power through the historic people’s movement that none of its constituents becomes a party to any new political combination at the cost of the alliance’s unity.

Some political leaders held the view during recent public debate or discussions between leaders of Left parties concerning Left unity that any such unity should not threaten the EPA unity. They may be right. However, the EPA leaders should also be careful to guard against any bid from any quarter to break the alliance apart, something that had been attempted soon after the historic 12-point agreement. To send a unified and encouraging message to the people ahead of the CA polls, the eight parties would do well to consider organising joint mass meetings and campaigns across the country, particularly in the face of designs to derail the CA polls and to cause disturbances or violence. The political leaders and workers should make no further delay in fanning out into the villages with their message for the people. For this, however, the leadership of each party has to be clear about what message it wants to convey. At the same time, the EPA constituents need to expand their area of agreement, particularly on vital issues such as the fate of the monarchy and the structure of federalism.

Source: The Himalayan Times, July 10, 2007

Ambassadorial confirmation : Challenges before parliamentary panel

Madhav Shrestha

Apparently under pressure of circumstantial politics, the government is now sending an agreed list of candidates to the Special Hearing Committee of the Interim Legislature- Parliament for their appointment as ambassadors. More than a dozen embassies have remained vacant for over a year now. The Hearings Committee has now been asked to confirm appointments as required by the amended Interim Constitution of Nepal. Indeed, the Committee is entrusted with a big responsibility of putting competent persons in the embassies, especially in the ones with high diplomatic importance.

People expect the Committee to test the abilities and suitability of government appointees keeping in mind the fact that the appointees will represent Nepal in foreign capitals. Indeed, the selected ones should be able to work to enhance national prestige and achieve national goals. However, a serious question arises whether appointees with divergent political leanings and ideologies and varied social and educational backgrounds can work in unison. Critics are quick to point out the inherent defects in the selection process. They allege that the norms adopted by the government are bound to create partisan feelings as the appointed diplomats will be more loyal to their parties than to the nation. Unfortunately, most appointees have neither diplomatic nor educational background required for the job; nor have they received good training and gained enough experience to carry on their duties and responsibilities satisfactorily.

Most politically stable countries (both developing and developed) appoint envoys from the well-established diplomatic service. At the moment, Nepal does not have a developed diplomatic service as political decision makers have never given a serious thought to institutionalising the diplomatic service in the last five decades. Such a trend persists to date with the current crop of political leaders sticking to the policies pursued by Rana despots and Panchayati oligarchs.

Among highly developed countries, the US government does continue the practice of assigning ambassadors and other envoys from among the people close to the president and his party. Such political appointments account for about one-third of total diplomatic appointees. This practice has worked in the US as even those left out have great opportunities to study and practice diplomacy outside the government circle in America. There is a pool of talent and appropriately educated people for various diplomatic jobs in the country, but Nepal has neither a well-placed structure, nor do the political parties have a proper mechanism to produce good diplomats to serve the country.

The leaders of the eight political parties should have weighed the pros and cons of appointing people of their own parties as ambassadors without considering the credentials and potentials of the proposed candidates. At present it is doubtful if the politicians are serving the nation or merely promoting their own men and women at a great loss to the country. As national leaders they should have formed a committee to find persons of integrity and relevant knowledge for ambassadorial appointments. By doing so, they would have contributed not only to the promotion of our national interest, but also enhanced their own popularity among common Nepalis. Unfortunately, they did not dare to venture on a new path, choosing to serve their own narrow interests.At this critical juncture in Nepal’s history, the Special Hearings Committee as an organ of the supreme Parliament must minutely examine the appropriateness of the governmental action in appointing the persons in question as ambassadors. The important question the Committee should ask itself is whether the ambassadors serve the country as national representatives or merely as party representatives promoting their narrow interests? The committee has to keep in mind that the image and standing of the eight parties has taken a nosedive among the people in the last year as no pro-people measures have been adopted despite the high sounding slogans of the eight political parties.

People are now eagerly waiting to see how the committee will go about the confirmation process. This will demand great acumen as the ambassadors’ job demands different abilities according to the countries they are appointed to.The confirmation process in case of high Election Commission officials and Supreme Court judges appeared only perfunctory. The process was neither transparent nor adequate. Such a perfunctory act can hardly serve the intended purpose. Such token gestures will be meaningless and futile. Seen in such a context, can the committee exercise enough caution and sensitivity and equip itself with necessary tools and mechanism to make its hearing process praiseworthy?


Source: The Himalayan Times, July 10, 2007

That’s why

The three-day celebration of King Gyanendra’s birthday that concluded yesterday was hardly a smooth affair. It was not unnatural for the palace to want to celebrate the diamond jubilee, even though the King has no constitutional status or authority. Everybody has a right to celebrate his or her birthday, so the King’s right to observe his birthday is beyond dispute. If the three-day gala had been made a private and quiet affair within the palace, it would hardly have given any provocation to the political parties. It was less the dinners and teas the palace hosted than the attempt to turn the occasion into a public event in some sort of a ‘show of strength’ that riled the political parties. The programme included a procession of royalists to the palace and presentation of a letter of felicitation to the King. The contents of the scroll went against the spirit of Jana Andolan-2 and the Interim Constitution and seemed to support the King’s controversial Democracy Day message.

Both the circumstances and timing helped bring both event and intention into sharp focus. At a time when the eight parties and the general public hold deep doubts about royal attitude towards the constituent assembly (CA) elections, the manner of celebration was ill advised. Obviously, the wide perception, including that of the political parties that the palace was engaged or likely to be engaged in conspiracy against the CA polls, led to the incorporation into the Interim Constitution an amendment that empowers the Interim Legislature-Parliament to abolish the monarchy even before the polls if the palace were deemed to be involved in any ‘serious’ conspiracy against the CA elections. The diamond jubilee controversy may strengthen the contention of those who want a republic right away.

It is too late for anybody, even the palace, now to try to reverse the political course the country has taken. While every move of the palace is under public glare, it would only prove to be counterproductive for the monarchy if it were seen to be going against popular will. The best thing would be to be resigned to the upcoming verdict of the CA. The birthday celebration also brought one thing to the fore — the government, the political parties, and the diplomats based in the capital stayed away from the functions at the palace, declining invitations. In yet another significant move, the King has been relieved of his age-old cultural role of gracing the bhoto at Bhotojatra. These speak volumes. The royalists could not take out the procession amid protests, and they had to enter the palace gate individually. Low turnout marked both the functions and the parties at the palace. Sadly, clashes erupted between YCL activists and royalists at some places, and several of the royalists were beaten up. It was an overreaction on the YCL’s part and it was wrong. Physical violence must be checked. But the mindset that betrays great difficulty in accepting the changed situation and the people’s verdict poses a greater danger to the political and peace process that has been set in motion.

Source: The Himalayan Times, July 9, 2007