Target: Election

On Saturday, the SPA did the only right thing it could do on the demands for a single state of ‘Madhesh’ and the right to self-determination. It rejected the demands by concluding that neither it nor the government nor the interim parliament had the mandate to decide on such an issue as would impinge profoundly on national integrity. It left the decision, therefore, to the Constituent Assembly, which is slated for election only six weeks away, on April 10. Out of the six demands put forward by the United Madhesi Democratic Forum (UMDF), four could be addressed even before the election, according to SPA leaders. These two demands, they said, could not be met also because these required constitutional and legal changes just ahead of the election. The front’s demand for exemption from the requirement for inclusiveness on proportional representation from the existing 20 per cent to 30 per cent still needed agreement, it was reported.The agitating Tarai groups did not submit their closed lists of candidates under the proportional representation system yesterday too — the date had been re-set specially with a view to enlisting their particiaption in the election, as they had ignored the original day). However, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala yesterday asked the public to rest assuredthat the Tarai crisis would be resolved in a day or two. The nation would applaud any suchbreakthrough so long as it did not compromise or threaten to compromise Nepal’s vital interests, such as its sovereignty and territorial integrity, or maintained the fairness principle in the political processes and a level playing field for all political parties. By these criteria, the two demands — one single Tarai state and self-determination — are out of the question — now and in the future.Even the front’s push for greater non-inclusiveness privilege is an example of the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose approach. While it has sought ‘proportional representation of Madhesis’ in all areas of governance, the front wants itself to be exempted from this need to include others. Other communities in the Tarai seem to be slowly waking up to the dire implications of ‘one Madhes, one state’ and ‘self-determination’. For instance, the Tharus, who are among the original Tarai inhabitants, have staged protests, warning the government against yielding to these ‘separatist’ demands. Nepal has remained a unified nation for about two and a half centuries. While even those countries in Asia that became larger relatively recently through the union of separate states have not granted these rights to their provinces or states, raising these demands in Nepal has naturally raised general suspicion about the protagonists’ motives. Jana Andolan II has provided all the groups with undreamt-of rights and powers, and the approaching CA election aims to institutionalise these gains and provide more. In this context, continuing the agitation, which enters its 13th day today, appears to be directed against the CA election itself. The SPA and the government need to demonstrate that the election takes place on schedule, come what may.

Source: The Himalayan Times, February 25, 2008

Nepal at a crossroads

Joginder Singh

Nepal evokes memories of a country full of beautiful scenery, high mountains and spiritual places. Till recently, the King of Nepal was regarded as god. However, the image of King Gyanendra has taken a beating, thanks to Maoists who have bullied the seven-party alliance into submission. Moreover, neither the King nor his crown prince has done anything to win the hearts of the people. In all fairness to Maoists, they have never hidden their ambition of removing the monarchy from the centrestage of Nepali politics.
Instead of begging and appealing to the King to become a titular head, Maoists went straight for his head. If they have their way in the election scheduled for April 10, the days of the King are numbered. Maoists have been -- and they still are -- in the forefront of a movement to abolish monarchy.
Nepal, one of the few monarchies in Asia and the only Hindu kingdom, has a population of 26.3 million, which is less than the population of Mumbai and Delhi put together. However, it has an area of 147,181 sq km. In Nepal, a landlocked country, tourism is the primary source of income.
During my recent visit to Nepal, I tried to gauge the ground reality in that country. One thing which came out clearly was that people were afraid to express their opinion openly. When pressed the most they would say was that all political leaders are keen to amass wealth for themselves.
In Nepal, petrol and diesel are being sold at Rs 50 per litre; after some time, even their availability will be a problem. Due to strikes, bandhs and non-payment of previous dues to Indian suppliers for petroleum products, 10 litres a day is the petrol sold to cars and five litres to two-wheelers. There was an interesting slogan put in the market in Nepali language, "Petrol chhenna, mitti taail chhenna, paani chhenna, bijli chhenna, sarkar chhenna" (there is no petrol, no kerosene, no water, no electricity and no Government).
There are power cuts in India, but the day I reached Kathmandu the power was off between 7 pm and 12 pm. I was told that we would have electricity between midnight and 5 am, and again between 9 am and 1 pm next day. This would be followed by no electricity between 1 pm and 5 pm and the cycle would continue till further notified.
When one visits Nepal, one is back to the candle age even in the best hotels. You need candles in the bathroom, in your living room and even dressing room. Normally, it is considered stylish to have a candlelight dinner. But it is not comfortable to live for eight hours in the hotel with candles lighting your room.
Due to political uncertainty, along with lack of basic facilities like water supply and electricity, many foreign companies are treating Nepal as a punishment posting. No wonder hardly any new industry has been set up in that country; worse, even the present ones are facing difficulties in their functioning. The first annual report of the RNA Human Rights Cell, 2006, has recorded 10,725 abductions and 72 killings by Maoists during the past six months of the year. It has also recorded 65 cases of explosion, 40 cases of extortion and looting and 30 cases of threats issued by Maoists. More than 12,000 civilians, Maoists and security personnel have been killed in that country since the rebels began their 'people's war' in 1996.
India, mostly for wrong reasons, occupies the front page of Nepal's media. The kidney scam king, Amit Kumar, who was recently arrested in Nepal, hogged the limelight in that country. On his arrest, Nepal Police recovered Euro 145,00, $ 18,900 and a bank draft of Rs 936,000. He was also guilty of possessing foreign currency -- the amount recovered from him was above the ceiling prescribed under Nepal's laws. Had he been convicted, he would have got up to 10 years of imprisonment and a fine of Rs 2 lakh. But at India's request, he was deported to New Delhi.
Today, Nepal stands at a crossroads. This strife-ridden nation is all set to implement a new 'deal' worked out between the current interim Government and Maoists. One of the conditions for arriving at the understanding is to abolish Nepal's more than 200-year-old monarchy after the election to the new Constituent Assembly is held on April 10. In the election, the electorate will also decide whether Nepal will become a democratic republic or retain ceremonial monarchy.
So far Prime Minister GP Koirala is the only SPA leader who has openly expressed his support for ceremonial monarchy. But now in the interest of peace, he has agreed to its abolition after the Constituent Assembly election. Most people in Nepal, however, will be happy to see King Gyanendra go, but not the monarchy.
Maoists may sweep the election as their writ runs in rural Nepal. Most people will vote for them to avoid any reprisals. The handful supporters of retention of constitutional monarchy will not be able to stem the anti-monarchy drive of Maoists. Of course, what Nepal does with monarchy is its internal matter, but a friendly Government in our neighbourhood is in our interest.
Bordering China and India, Nepal offers a geo-political advantage to any country that is influential there. Though one does not foresee any major conflict in the near future, India feels that the military capability of China will increase if it gets a foothold there. Also, we have to be respectful of the sentiment of the people of Nepal.
Winston Churchill once observed: "The monarchy is extraordinarily useful. When Britain wins a battle it shouts, 'God save the Queen'; when it loses, it votes down the Prime Minister." Only the future will indicate whether Churchill's statement is relevant to Nepal or not.

Source: The Pioneer, February 25, 2008

Two suspicious of polls

Yubaraj Ghimire

As the countdown for the April 10 election to the constituent assembly begins, the most powerful leaders are busy distorting the main intent of the whole exercise. The election, deferred twice in the past, is meant to elect the constituent assembly that will chart out Nepal’s future constitution as well as the model of government that people will elect through another election later.
But Kathmandu’s walls are painted red with graffiti by Maoist cadres saying ‘let us elect Prachanda as the first President of the Republic of Nepal’. Prachanda, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), himself has stated that he will be president now at 55 and remain there for another 20 years during which Nepal will transform into one of the developed countries in the world. But the hidden message is simple: that once he is in power, Nepal will usher in a one-party authoritarian rule where change of government through the ballot will be impossible. After all, the CPN-M has also made it clear that their role model is Kim Jong II of North Korea.
Pitted against Prachanda is the octogenarian G.P. Koirala, the interim prime minister who is also discharging duties of the head of state, with King Gyanendra in a state of suspension. Koirala, in fact, began behaving like a king soon after Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called him a ‘legendary leader’ of South Asia, ignoring Koirala’s vices — mainly corruption.
When the interim constitution said the prime minister will also discharge responsibilities of the head of state, it was not meant to make him into an all-powerful dictator, but simply to get him to do jobs like accepting the credentials of ambassadors, something the king had been doing earlier. Koirala, however, went beyond that expectation. He literally curtailed the king’s right to religion even as in the individual domain and began acting like a ‘Hindu monarch’ during major Hindu festivals. He ignored the fact that Nepal’s revived parliament had made it a secular state from a Hindu kingdom, and that the head of state or government was no more expected to associate with one or the other religion. But he couldn’t resist the temptation to be like the king. In his personal life, he has avoided observing any Hindu rituals, even when his parents died long ago and his two sisters-in-law died within a year recently.
Politically also, he wants to introduce the Koirala dynasty in the politics of Nepal. He recently inducted his only daughter, Sujata Koirala, as a minister without portfolio in the cabinet. He never concealed his wish to make her prime minister — preferably when he is still alive — despite the fact that Sujata is one of the most controversial personalities in the Congress party, sometimes, a synonym of corruption. Interestingly, Koirala’s daughter has stated time and again that she is in favour of monarchy being retained in one or the other form. Her party has however, adopted a pro-republic position during its last general convention.
In a party with a monolithic leadership, Koirala has been able to give a message that like the all-powerful king, he or his daughter are above the party discipline and norm. That’s why no one from the party has so far questioned or demanded action against his daughter. There is speculation that should the April 10 election be called off like it has been twice in the past, given the prevailing law and order situation, Koirala knows that his days are over, along with that of the present coalition arrangement. As radical Maoists are sure to try to capture power through the gun once again, Sujata hopes to rally monarchist and democratic forces around her, with her father loaning his residual support base of the Congress party to her.
In fact, there is a visible amount of deceit and dishonesty both in what Koirala and Prachanda have been doing —both are taking a pro-election position, although, both know elections do not suit their ambitions. Moreover, with acute shortage of fuel and total dislocation of essential services in the country — that has triggered mass anger against the present government — Koirala knows his fate if elections are held. Prachanda has already given too many excuses to call them off by letting loose his supporters on political opponents, and by painting the campaign as a poll for a future president.

Source: The Indian Express, February 21, 2008

Terai turmoil may delay Nepal polls

NEW DELHI: The uncertainty surrounding Nepalese Constituent Assembly elections continues with prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala refusing to meet one of the key demands put forward by Madhesi leaders for a separate province in the Terai region. Amid fears that the elections — scheduled to be held on April 10 — could be postponed again, Mr Koirala, after two rounds of discussions with the Madhesi leaders, has announced that he would not accept the demand for a Madhesi province, one of the six demands put forward by the Madhesi leaders. Mr Koirala said this would affect Nepal’s sovereignty and integrity. Madhesi leaders have said they would continue their general strike until their six-point demands are met. In this scenario, it would be difficult for the government to hold elections. At the same time, Nepal watchers say that a postponement of poll is also likely to suit certain sections of the political dispensation. The Maoists would be satisfied with the continuation of the current political arrangement and could even use the Madhesi issue to push for a postponement of the elections. Nepal experts say Maoists fear that they could get marginalised in the elections and their agenda subverted by other parties, particularly the Terai regional parties. They are currently deemed to be unpopular with the people, and of the 83 seats that they acquired in the Nepali Parliament they might not be able to retain even half, political watchers there say. The Maoists have also not completely integrated into the mainstream and continue to foster a militia of new recruits. “The elections depend on the Terai situation. In the Terai region political parties have to some extent lost their base to the Madhesi regional parties,” said Paul Soren, junior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. Madhesis have long been marginalised in Nepal and have had no political voice. A section of the Nepali Congress, which has traditionally been strong in Terai, is also against elections being held. They are not sure about how they would fare in the elections in other areas. And a small, almost negligible, section within the CPN (ULM) also wants the polls to be postponed. However, the concerned parties are wary of coming out in the open as people want elections. The government is also under pressure from the international community to hold elections on time. India sees the Constituent Assembly elections as a fundamental next step, and feels that the democratic process will lose legitimacy if it is postponed again. New Delhi has been urging Kathmandu to resolve the Madhesi issue through dialogue. Political calculations aside, Nepal watchers point out that the Koirala government would find it increasingly difficult to hold elections with one-third of the country agitating. “There is a real problem quite apart from whatever might be political calculation. From the point of view of the administration, how do you hold an elections with one third of the country in revolt. It’s not just political compulsion,” said professor P R Chari, research professor at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. He added: “I’m convinced you can’t hold elections (if the Madhesi issue is not resolved). It is physically impossible, elections require peaceful conditions.” But another postponement would also affect the credibility of the political parties in the eyes of the people of Nepal, and arrest Nepal’s march towards full democracy.

Source: The Economic Times, February 18, 2008

Ethnic unrest threatens Nepal elections

KATHMANDU (Reuters) - Nepal must address the demands for autonomy of its ethnic Madheshi people or risk more violence and another postponement of twice-delayed elections, the leader of a Madheshi group said on Monday.
Violent protests in the Terai, or Madhesh, region in Nepal's southern plains have clouded a peace deal between the government and former Maoist rebels, which ended the Maoists' decade-long rebellion against the monarchy in 2006.
At least 45 people have been killed in violent street protests in the past year. But Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has vowed to press ahead with the elections in April, Nepal's first national vote since 1999, despite the crisis.
"If it goes ahead with elections by force, the Terai problem will take a different course," Upendra Yadav, chief of the Madheshi People's Rights Forum, which organised most of last year's protests, told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"Armed groups will get a space to play and a secessionist movement could develop."
Many Madheshis want the region, which is home to nearly half of the country's 26 million people, to become a largely autonomous state within Nepal, and want a greater say in the running of the central government.
"If this is not done elections in the Terai are not possible," Yadav told Reuters. "The government does not want to resolve the problem and it wants to continue to suppress the Madheshi people."
Nepal is due to vote for a constituent assembly on April 10. The assembly is expected to prepare a new constitution, make laws and formally declare an end to nearly 240-year-old monarchy.
Since the Maoist rebellion ended in 2006, more than two dozen rebel groups have begun a low-intensity insurgency in the Terai.
Analysts say the government must act quickly and engage the Madheshis before the situation slips out of control. But Yadav ruled out an early meeting.
"Protesters are being shot and killed," he said. "How can we hold talks in this atmosphere?"
On Sunday, police shot at Madheshi protesters in the southwestern town of Nepalgunj as the crowd pelted them with stones.
Police said one demonstrator was killed and dozens of others were injured, the first fatal incident since an indefinite Madheshi strike began last week.
Schools, shops and factories have been forced to close, while oil supplies have been disrupted.

Source: Reuters India, February 18, 2008