Ethnic unrest threatens Nepal elections

KATHMANDU (Reuters) - Nepal must address the demands for autonomy of its ethnic Madheshi people or risk more violence and another postponement of twice-delayed elections, the leader of a Madheshi group said on Monday.
Violent protests in the Terai, or Madhesh, region in Nepal's southern plains have clouded a peace deal between the government and former Maoist rebels, which ended the Maoists' decade-long rebellion against the monarchy in 2006.
At least 45 people have been killed in violent street protests in the past year. But Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has vowed to press ahead with the elections in April, Nepal's first national vote since 1999, despite the crisis.
"If it goes ahead with elections by force, the Terai problem will take a different course," Upendra Yadav, chief of the Madheshi People's Rights Forum, which organised most of last year's protests, told Reuters in a telephone interview.
"Armed groups will get a space to play and a secessionist movement could develop."
Many Madheshis want the region, which is home to nearly half of the country's 26 million people, to become a largely autonomous state within Nepal, and want a greater say in the running of the central government.
"If this is not done elections in the Terai are not possible," Yadav told Reuters. "The government does not want to resolve the problem and it wants to continue to suppress the Madheshi people."
Nepal is due to vote for a constituent assembly on April 10. The assembly is expected to prepare a new constitution, make laws and formally declare an end to nearly 240-year-old monarchy.
Since the Maoist rebellion ended in 2006, more than two dozen rebel groups have begun a low-intensity insurgency in the Terai.
Analysts say the government must act quickly and engage the Madheshis before the situation slips out of control. But Yadav ruled out an early meeting.
"Protesters are being shot and killed," he said. "How can we hold talks in this atmosphere?"
On Sunday, police shot at Madheshi protesters in the southwestern town of Nepalgunj as the crowd pelted them with stones.
Police said one demonstrator was killed and dozens of others were injured, the first fatal incident since an indefinite Madheshi strike began last week.
Schools, shops and factories have been forced to close, while oil supplies have been disrupted.

Source: Reuters India, February 18, 2008

Nepal’s Green Party not to contest CA election

We are not brave enough to contest the forthcoming election to the constituent assembly as we know we will be dubbed as royalists and thrashed by the cadres of the so-called big seven parties of Nepal, if we venture into the election campaign.
The founder president of the Green Party Nepal, Mr. Kuber Sharma said this at a press conference cum lavish cocktail dinner hosted by the party on Monday.
The Green Party Nepal is the splinter of the Nepali Congress Party formed almost a decade back succumbing to extreme Koirala hegemony in the NC camp. Mr. Sharma himself served the Nepali Congress as a Parliamentarian in the early democratic years. He got elected from his home constituency from Saptari district.
Mr. Sharma however, said that his party was not shying away from the CA election but it was a life saving formula for his party candidates.
"We are not ready to commit a suicide", Sharma further said.
“What difference will it make even if we win the election…in a country where non-elected representatives rein supreme over the others, thus there is no point in forwarding our candidacy for the CA poll?”, he continued.
I am not as brave as Prachanda- the Maoists chairman, to declare myself the first president of the republic of Nepal, Mr. Sharma further said.
Making public the views of his party on the ongoing Terai crisis, Mr. Sharma said the Terai agitation has no future at all.
Few miscreants are enough to make the environment nasty; resorting to peaceful means can however, ensure broader participation of the Madhesis in the State Structure, Mr. Sharma said.
On the issue of possible India links in Nepal’s Terai crisis, Mr. Sharma said that India may not dare to split this country as it might boomerang on it ultimately.
“India itself is primarily a troubled nation; the fresh ethnic cleansing campaign in the state of Maharastra is a proof of that, the voice of dissension coming as it does from the northern states of India are all but a sign that India itself is in sheer trouble”, Mr. Sharma added.
Follows the Press Release issued by the Green Party Nepal on 17 February, 08.
“The old order changed yielding place to new” wrote Alfred Tennyson, the English poet about two hundred years back. Nothing could be truer. Our people too have been — struggling for a change. And a couple of years back came a great change but the politicians who grabbed power could not rise up to the occasion. Their self oriented policies, their unbridled ambition to stay in power sine die, their authoritarian behavior and intense intolerance of the opposition, their naked corruption, their insensitive and inhuman attempts towards the demolition of our national heritages, culture and religion have impelled us — the Green Nepal Party to raise our voices against such behavior and appeal to our aggrieved patriotic sisters and brothers of our country to join us to save our dear motherland from dishonor and destruction. The acute shortage of power, the petroleum products ,even drinking water, skyrocketing prices of daily necessaries, the total absence of law and order, the chukka jams and bandh, the continuous loots, murders, extortions and abduction have not only made life of the common man most unsafe and miserable but turned it into absolute hell. The violent insurgency by the proponents of racialism, federalism amid regionalism has weakened the solid structure of our national unity. In these circumstances no sane Nepali will risk life to go to polling booth to cast the vote. Even before the nominations are filed the big parties are disturbing the election campaign of other parties. Big parties are using their muscle and money power on the one hand and talking about sharing of seats among themselves on the other. For that reason our party is demanding dissolution of interim parliament and Government and to form a neutral Government to conduct free, fair and impartial election. The interim government has not been able to govern. The village and district development committees are not able to carry out development works. The Country is trapped in economic crisis. In view of the increasing risk to the lives of voters and candidates our party will not participate in the election. Despite the absolute imperativeness of elections to the constituent assembly it is impossible to hold the election on 10th April, 2008 in such a chaotic situation. Moreover, the servile behavior of our statesmen has turned our proud nation into a vassal state of our big neighbor in the south and this has got to be corrected at the earliest. As such we all must join hands to change the government. I trust you all will not hesitate to come forward immediately to defend the sanctity and sovereignty of our dear country. Finally we must say that we remain strongly committed to continue our peaceful campaign in favor of Multi-party Democracy, clean politics and clean environment.

Source: Telegraph Nepal, February 17, 2008

Breakfast in Nepal, lunch in India, daily

The border between India and Nepal is more than 1,750 kilometres long. For most of its length, you can walk across for dinner, and go back for the night and breakfast — completely unchallenged by anybody.
Last December, a clutch of young Maoists from Nepal crossed over into India in Bihar and planted their party flags, staking a claim to the area. Again, they were not challenged — on either side of the border. That’s how easy it is to cross this border.
But a breakfast or dinner is the last thing on the minds of millions of people who cross this border every day. And many of them are criminals like the kidney racket kingpin Amit Kumar. Or terrorists.
India has 7,000 km of seacoast, and shares 14,000 km of land borders with six countries. Portions of the land frontiers are fenced and impossible to breach. But the rest are invitingly porous for those who want to cross over.
Terrorists use Nepal to stage operations in India. Northeast militants are headquartered across the border in Bangladesh. Many evade arrest in India by simply slipping into Myanmar. Smugglers, of course, thrive.
And then there is the border with Pakistan which could be anything from porous to ant-proof depending on where you are. While the border in Punjab is fenced and electrified, it’s open in Rajasthan and in parts of Jammu & Kashmir.
Hindustan Times reporters take a fresh look at these borders, at the people on either side, the security arrangement — or the lack of it, in a series of reports from the frontier towns and villages.
In the first of this series, Manish Tiwari writes about how the security forces are fighting a losing battle on the Indo-Nepal border in Bihar. “It has become a dangerous place to live in,” a resident of the area told Tiwari.

Source: Hindustan Times, February 17, 2008

Nepal: The Coming April Crisis, and India’s Role

Sharply contending parties in Nepal agreed to have the future of the country contested in a elections for a constituent assembly. This has given rise to huge debate within Nepal, and among its people, over what kind of future to have, what kind of state and social system. Various forces (including the pro-Indian Nepalese Congress party NC) have repeatedly postponed and impeded those elections — leading the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to point out that the future can also be settled by other means. There are (as several commentators note) two undefeated armies in Nepal — one belonging to the government, the other led by the Maoists. Currently the elections are scheduled for April — and there is great tension over whether they will be sabotaged again, and (if so) what will follow. India is accused of helping torpedo the elections by stirring up secessionist forces in the Terai, the strategic agricultural border area in southern Nepal. Possibilities include renewed Maoist armed uprising, broad mass protests, a crackdown by the Nepalese military, continued stalemated crisis and possibly an invasion by the powerful nearby Indian army — or various combination of these things. A piece from the Nepal Times follows.

Plan A…. India Doesn’t Seem to Have a Plan B on Nepal
by PRASHANT JHA in NEW DELHI (India’s Capital), Nepal Times: Sat Feb 16, 2008 5:39 am (PST)
New Delhi is confused and frustrated about continued uncertainty over elections in Nepal.
Nepal watchers here are convinced that missing the deadline yet again will mark the collapse of the peace process. They say they are working on politicians in Kathmandu to get their act together, but admit their leverage is limited.

An exasperated official told Nepali Times : “We can’t do much if Kathmandu’s myopic political class doesn’t want elections. They will create new excuses, and this time the excuse seems to be the Madhes.”
Indian agencies are said to be in touch with all Madhesi groups, but deny India is instigating trouble in the Tarai. “Why would we want to prolong instability and bloodshed in the Madhes when its first negative fallout is on our own side in Bihar and UP?” asked one official.

Delhi has alerted the Bihar authorities about the presence of Madhesi militants, but officials say without more engagement from Kathmandu it is unlikely that Patna will step up the heat on the extremists.
The policy thrust now is for a quick fix on the Madhes to enable polls to go ahead. It is a difficult balancing act of backing the larger process while maintaining influence over Madhesi groups. India is happy with the unity and alliance of Madhesi groups and the distilled six point demands.
“The government must sincerely reach out to the Madhes, and Madhesi groups shouldn’t allow themselves to be used as a pretext to cancel polls. They should consolidate and get votes,” said a senior diplomat, summing up Indian policy.

India is also keen on an understanding between the NC and Madhesi groups to strengthen ‘democratic forces’ so they can stand up to the Maoists. On her recent visit to Delhi, sources said US ambassador Nancy Powell warned her interlocutors that the Maoists were bullying their way through the process. There is concern here that the Maoists will use the YCL to intimidate voters and rig elections.
India doesn’t seem to have a neat Plan B in case elections do not happen. But one top policymaker told us, “We don’t even want to think of that scenario…it will be like a civil war.”
Meanwhile, the king is lobbying hard in Delhi to retain the monarchy. Son-in-law Raj Bahadur Singh was in town this week meeting the BJP’s Rajnath Singh and Jaswant Singh, among others. The message is that the Maoists plan a power grab, and only the monarchy can counter it. The royals were pleased about BJP prime ministerial candidate L K Advani launching a blistering critique of India’s Nepal policy last week.
Nepal is high on New Delhi’s agenda these days. Minister for External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee personally tracks Nepal and speaks regularly with Prime Minister Koirala. The visit to Kathmandu this week by senior Congress leaders Digvijay Singh and Verappa Moily is described here as testimony to the importance Sonia Gandhi attaches to the situation in Nepal.

Source: Nepal Times, February 16, 2008

Crisis continuum

S D Muni

No one disputes the fact that the fate of Nepal's peace process hinges precariously on the election to the Constituent Assembly scheduled for April 10, 2008. While the Government leaders continue to promise that free and fair election would be held, the ground reality is not at all encouraging. Even the Election Commission has expressed serious reservations regarding the security situation, particularly in the Terai region. If the election is again postponed, all the interim arrangements -- the Government, Parliament and the Interim Constitution -- would lose credibility. The disruptive forces, trying to sabotage the election will get emboldened and the prevailing non-governance will get worse. The international community which has put very high stakes in facilitating Nepal's smooth transition will get alienated, further complicating the prospects of peace and stability in Nepal.

The challenge to smooth election come from three sources: The Madhes agitation (Terai region), the monarch and the Maoists. The recently emerged United Madhes Democratic Front (UMDF), headed by Mahanta Thakur, is agitating for the acceptance of their six demands before they can participate in the CA election. The Government has accepted federalism and assured representation to Madhes in administration, including the Army.

But what has been conceded falls far short of the expectations. Though there is scope for further accommodation, it is virtually impossible to concede all the demands before the election. The questions of autonomy and self-determination are linked with similar demands raised by other groups. The demand for the full electoral representation to Madhes cannot be met without redrawing constituencies and that means indefinite delay in election. The continuing agitation of the Madhes parties is not allowing smooth campaign in the Terai to the ruling coalition.

There are violent and unruly groups outside the UMDF which have not been reined in by the Government. Some of them are even demanding secession. On the whole, the situation in the Terai is chaotic, violent and insecure. Elections can be held only with the use of heavy force, which will neither be credible, in the absence of Madhes participation, nor free and fair.

While, Madhesis' fear that they will not get their demands met adequately after the CA election, the monarch fears that he will lose whatever he has as soon as an elected CA comes into being. Non-governance of the ruling coalition, tension among the allies and turmoil in the Terai have combined to encourage the King to "break his silence" and debunk the interim Parliament's decision to declare Nepal a "Republic". The opinion polls show greater acceptance of the monarchy, not necessarily him as the King. Through funding of the Terai and ethnic agitations and sporadic violence, King Gyanendra is trying his best to get the election atmosphere vitiated. His cronies in various ruling parties, including the Maoists and the Madhes agitating groups, along with the traditional royalist parties, are all helping him in his agenda.

The Maoists had got the November 2007 election postponed under the fear that they would be marginalised. They have overcome those fears, collected adequate funds, united the scattered Left groups under their banner and also regained some support among the ethnic groups. They have also been hobnobbing with the erstwhile royalists. The party organisation has been geared to face the election and Maoist leader Prachanda has even spelt out his ambitions to be the first President of the 'Republic of Nepal'. The problem with the Maoists, however, is their persisting resort to strong arm methods through their Youth Communist League (YCL) cadre and their refusal to vacate captured property. Other political parties fear that the Maoists will rig the election through YCL wherever possible.

The hurdles in the way to smooth election can be easily overcome if the Government has a firm resolve. The ruling coalition parties, particularly the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Communists (United Marxists Leninists), are locked in an internecine power struggle, trying to outwit each other. Inherently insecure of the outcome, each of them want to ensure that election yields power to them. They have decided to launch a united campaign in favour of free and fair election but without any real zeal or enthusiasm.

In such a situation, hope lies only with civil society groups and the international community. The civil society groups need to reactivate themselves to the level they did during the Jan Andolan-II. The international community, by all indications, is seriously pushing the Government towards a credible CA election. India has even encouraged its political parties to visit Nepal to boost morale. There are, however, allegations that sections in India, both within and outside the Government, are conniving with the Terai agitating groups as well as the royalists to derail Nepal's peace process. The possibility cannot be ruled out that isolated mavericks in the Indian establishment are cultivating the Terai card to ward off the eventuality of the Maoists emerging as dominant players in Nepal.

Source: The Pioneer, February 16, 2008