Q&A: Nepal's future

Former Maoist rebels in Nepal say they are pulling out from the interim government in protest over its failure to abolish the monarchy ahead of constituent assembly elections due to be held in November.

Why do the Maoists say they want to quit now?

The Maoists accuse Nepal's interim coalition government of failing to function in the spirit of the agreements reached earlier this year, when they say it was agreed that the monarchy should be abolished before the constituent assembly elections. Other parties in the interim government deny there was such an agreement.
In a list of demands submitted to the government, the Maoists called for Nepal immediately to become a republic instead of a constitutional monarchy. They also want the country to adopt a proportional representation system of elections, and for the vote itself to be delayed.
They have demanded that a commission should be established to investigate the disappearances of their supporters during Nepal's decade-long civil war, as well as better salaries for their former fighters, who they say are not being properly integrated into the country's army as agreed earlier this year.
Some observers say the Maoists have only threatened to withdraw because they fear they will not perform well in the 22 November elections.
So will they really leave the government?
The prime minister has not yet accepted the resignation of the four Maoists in the cabinet. Some analysts say that in tendering their resignations, the Maoists might just be trying to exert pressure on the prime minister and his allies to bow to their demands.

Are the Maoists likely to return to armed conflict?

The rebels have currently given no indication that they will return to arms, and have insisted that following last year's ceasefire with the government, they are committed to the path of peace.
Correspondents say that one option they may follow is to pursue a coalition agreement with the mainstream Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist-Leninist) - one of Nepal's mainstream political parties - and in so doing gain a significant share of power in the constituent assembly administration.

What is the point of the constituent assembly?

Under the terms of last year's peace deal, the future of the monarchy was supposed to have been decided by a democratically elected constitutional body, or constituent assembly, which will decide the country's future by devising a new constitution.
Critics of the rebels say that the issue of the monarchy was resolved in earlier negotiations with the rebels. At that time they said that their declared aim was for Nepal to become a communist republic, and that they would respect whatever the constituent assembly decided about the future of the monarchy.
All this comes amid a rise in ethnic and religious tension in Nepal, as different regional and political groups strive to assert their authority in advance of the polls.

Why did the Maoists suspend their armed struggle in November 2006?

The Maoists called a ceasefire after King Gyanendra ended his controversial direct rule in April 2006 and restored parliament.
The king backed down after weeks of strikes and protests against his rule which saw huge demonstrations against him.
Political parties who were then in opposition, and are now in government, had promised to work with the Maoists as a prelude to bringing them into government.

Why did the king back down and agree to reconvene parliament?

The short answer is the sheer size of the demonstrations against him - some of the biggest that the country has ever witnessed.
Faced with this vast display of people power, analysts say that the king had no choice but to back down or the country would have descended into anarchy.
Observers say with international pressure mounting on him and the mood among his opponents at home hardening, particularly after the deaths of a number of protesters at the hands of the security forces, the king had few other options.
The current parliament has now effectively reduced the monarchy to a ceremonial role. It has also ended Nepal's status as a Hindu state and turned it into a secular state.

Why did the king seize power in February, 2005?

He accused Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's government of failing to win the support of the Maoist rebels for a deadline for peace talks and of failing to prepare the ground for elections in the spring of 2005.
However, analysts suggest the king might have been using these issues to strengthen his own role in Nepalese politics, perhaps seeking to create an absolute monarchy.
Whatever his intentions, his plans backfired and he finds himself in a much weaker position now, having in effect catalysed his opponents and the rebels into forging peace.

How strong are the Maoists?

At the height of their insurrection, the Maoists were virtually in control of most of rural Nepal, although the authorities disputed this.
They were frequently capable of launching enforced blockades of major towns and cities, showing they had the power to paralyse the economy.
As part of the ceasefire deal, both the rebels and the army agreed to put their arms beyond use under UN supervision, with former rebels confined to their bases at cantonments across the country.
Some analysts argue that the emergence in recent months of around a dozen armed groups in the south of the country - all extremely hostile to the former rebels - has meant that their hold over this populous part of the country has been weakened. In the cities, their support has never been strong.
But the rebels have remained capable of holding large-scale rallies across the country, and have threatened to use this tactic again on a large scale if their latest demands are not met.

Where do the Maoists derive their ideology?

The Maoists claim to be inspired by Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong and want to establish a communist state.
Their shadowy leader's name, Prachanda, is translated as "the fierce one". The group is modelled on Peru's Maoist Shining Path guerrillas.

What was the human cost of the conflict?

More than 13,000 people were killed in violence in Nepal when the insurgency began 10 years ago, many of them civilians caught in cross-fire with security forces.
Both sides in the conflict were frequently accused of carrying out human rights abuses.

Source: BBC NEWS: September 18, 2007

Maoists 'short of options' in Nepal

Dhruba Adhikary

Nepal's interim government faces its first major setback after former Maoist rebels announced their decision to recall their ministers from the cabinet.

The withdrawal of a major partner from the coalition comes just two months before the country goes to crucial polls to elect an assembly tasked with drawing up a new, democratic constitution.
The Maoist announcement, however, was neither sudden nor unexpected.
While Prime Minister GP Koirala was familiar with Maoist discontent, he and leaders of other political parties in the government did not actually believe that the former rebels would leave the team before the task was completed.

The rebels had, after all, ended a decade-long armed insurgency in order to be a part of mainstream politics.
When Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai announced that all four Maoist ministers had resigned from posts they had occupied since April, he accused leaders of other coalition groups of not taking their well-publicised 22-point list of demands seriously.
Maoist leaders have also been saying that two of their demands are important if the polls set for 22 November are to be a meaningful exercise.

Monarchy row

Their first main demand is that the feudal institution of the monarchy be abolished ahead of the polls, to be replaced by a republic.
The second is that the traditional first-past-the-post electoral system be changed to one of proportional representation.

The Maoists consider this essential to give space to traditionally marginalised groups in society.
Maoist leader Bhattarai sought to offer reassurances that, although the former rebels opposed the November vote, his party would not withdraw their commitment to the peace process.
He also said that Maoist combatants now sheltered in UN-monitored cantonments would remain where they have been living for the past few months.

The written understanding reached previously to work with the coalition of seven parties, Mr Bhattarai said, would not be cancelled.
But it is not clear how reliable such assurances are, given that the Maoist leadership has already issued directives to their comrades across the country to launch a "peaceful" agitation with a view to preventing the forthccoming elections - which from their standpoint would be a farce.

Maoist vote fears

Elections cannot be free and fair as long as the monarchy is allowed to survive with possible support from a loyal army, goes the Maoist theory. Independent political analysts suspect that the Maoists' decision to stay away from the polls is because they now realise that it is simply not feasible to expect to gain a majority of votes from people who were terrorised by them in the past.
But the Maoists do not agree with this viewpoint and say they have been forced to change their position in the context of growing conspiracies.
They accuse external powers (mainly India and the US) of not wanting a stable and prosperous Nepal with China as its northern neighbour.

Prime Minister Koirala and other coalition leaders appear disappointed by the Maoist attitude over the monarchy.
They say they have all publicly expressed their commitment to opt for a republican set-up after the November polls, and there was no need for the Maoists to cast doubt on the sincerity of other partners who worked together to bring about the political changes which ended palace rule in April 2006.

Left coalition?

Mr Koirala and other party leaders want the Maoist leadership to honour the agreements they signed - and say they face losing credibility as a political party if they do not.
Some of the leaders are angry with the Maoists for trying to deprive other parties of their due credit for having played a role in the continuing changes.
Analysts say that the Maoist have limited options.
The chances of their going back underground are slim in view of the sea change in overground politics in the past year.

Crossing the border into India is not easy either, especially in view of Delhi's changed policy towards the Maoists.
Indian authorities are also concerned over the growing Maoist menace that some of its states have been facing in recent years.
One possible way out for the Maoists would be to settle for some kind of coalition politics with other left-wing parties.
In fact, some of the smaller left-leaning parties have already started to receive feelers from the Maoists about forging an alliance.

Source: BBC, News, September 18, 2007

Red Army in the Dragon Kingdom

Deepak Adhikari

Another Maoist insurgency is going to rock yet another country in South Asia, if the statements made by the leaders of the Communist Party of Bhutan Marxist-Leninist-Maoist (CPM MLM) are anything to go by. “Preliminary preparations for an insurgency are over. We are going to launch it soon,” says Vikalpa, nom-de-plume of CPB MLM General Secretary.

Bhutan is holding its parliamentary elections in March and April 2008. But, prior to the election date, CPB MLM plans to launch its ‘People’s War’ in the Himalayan kingdom.
The goal: Abolition of monarchy and establishment of a republic.
Following the footsteps of Nepali Maoists who had submitted a 40-point demand to the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba before launching a ‘People’s War’, CPB MLM faxed a 13-point demand to the Royal Government of Bhutan on March 22, 2007.

The letter stressed the need to “introduce people’s democracy in the place of absolute monarchy.” The party has asked for multi-party democracy, repatriation of the refugees to their original homes with honor and dignity, release of all political prisoners and to introduce the land reform act etc.

Vikalpa (literally, alternative) says that fulfillment of the demands would have paved the way for a peaceful resolution. “But, the government, rather than taking it seriously, has unleashed terror by arresting commoners, and this has prompted us to wage an armed struggle,” says CPB supremo Vikalpa.The Druk regime is yet to respond to these demands.

The unfolding events suggest that South Asia’s only active monarchy that is ruling the so-called ‘Last Shangri-La’ is likely to take the country into Maoist violence. The eruption of militancy in northeastern South Asia will not only push Bhutan into turmoil but the two biggest Asian power i.e. India and China will have to deal with yet another insurgency in their backyards.

Source: Toriganthe TV, September 25, 2007

The Political Stand Off In Nepal

Harsh Dobhal

This week, Maoists have resigned from the government after most governing parties opposed their demand that the monarchy be abolished before the elections scheduled in November. They have clearly accused PM Koirala and his Nepali Congress of trying to protect King Gyanendra and have warned to start a new "people's revolt" for the abolition of monarchy. Maoists were quick to gather that conservative elements in political parties are gathering together. Other coalition partners contend that the decision about Nepal's future political system should be decided by a special assembly after the November elections.

Having suffered for decades at the hands of a brutal, Royal Nepalese Army, armed police and king's other security forces, the people of Nepal rose in millions during the April revolution last year with a clear objective in mind: abolition of the centuries-old monarchy.
Despite American, Chinese and Indian chess games of diplomacy, the people of Nepal succeeded in putting their stamp on history and the king was forced to retreat and give up his absolute and unlimited powers. As in all revolutions, there was always the danger that the forces of reaction would regroup and old hawks of Nepali politics will try to have their way.

After over a decade of underground struggle, Maoists came over ground, disarmed and joined the government with the Seven Party Alliance. They put forward a series of unprecedented proposals for the restoration of true democracy, the disarming of the militia and drafting of a new Constitution. It was a brave decision by Maoists to outline the roadmap for a brave new Nepal.
Maoists, as much as the people, were always clear that monarchy should have no place in Nepali politics, that the country should be immediately declared a Republic. They never had any doubt that Nepal needs a general election, having abolished monarchy where the most marginalized - the dalits, the adivasis, madhesis, vanvasis, women, minorities and other weaker sections - will have adequate representation.

At that time the move was seen as an end to their armed rebellion and this little, beautiful Himalyan nation appeared to be on the threshold of a new era. This week, Maoists have resigned from the government after most governing parties opposed their demands that the monarchy be abolished before the elections scheduled for November.
They have clearly accused Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his Nepali Congress of trying to protect King Gyanendra and have warned to start a new "people's revolt" for the abolition of monarchy. Other coalition partners contend that the decision about Nepal's future political system should be decided by a special assembly after the November elections.

The Maoists had earlier joined the interim government in April 2006, after signing a peace agreement with the government. The new developments simply signify the fact that Nepal's politics has been slowly but steadily lapsing into complacency from such momentous changes that were paving the way for not just consistent and lasting democratisation of the State but also its secularisation from a declared only Hindu State.
Maoists were quick to gather that conservative elements in political parties are gathering together. However, these forces would be compelled to come to negotiation with Maoists as the tide might rise once again. Maoists may have lost some ground after April Revolution of last year, but they have enough base to win back that ground. And they know it, for otherwise none is going to be as hard hit by new developments as Maoists who had laid down their weapons at a time when the mood in Nepal was upbeat.

The crisis that had been gathering over Nepal howsoever surreptitiously during past few months bode ill for the Maoists. And, they had no option but to take a strong decision to quit the government. Koirala had sadly been missing this till the Maoists decided to part away with his dispensation. Even if the country goes to polls on November 22, the appeal of the Maoists would be powerful, as they have raised more basic issues than merely electing legislators. So it is in the best interest of the government and the people to see as to how the Maoists' participation in not just polls but the political process is won back.

India has come under Nepalese ire, for Koirala has been blamed of toeing New Delhi's line. Yet, the fact is that the Manmohan Singh Government is grappling with its own crisis where the Left is miffed by it over the nuclear issue and it lacks the kind of cohesion that it had until last year when the Nepal crisis was solved.
India can facilitate in solving a crisis in a neighbouring country like Nepal, but it can only ill afford to dictate anything to any one. The move by Maoists has raised fresh questions about the peace process and stability in Nepal. Will the feudal, pro-monarchy forces and their external patrons come together for maneuver? Does the political mainstream of Nepal now belong to these elements or to radical forces?

Is the spirit of the April revolution still lingering in the hearts of Nepalese people? Are some of the parties engaging in a conspiracy against the peoples' aspirations and demands? The answers to these and many other questions will unfold in coming weeks and months.

Source: Counter Currents.Org, September 25, 2007

NEPAL: INDIA IMPOSE TRAVEL RESTRICTION ON MAOISTS

Latest reports have it that the Indian establishment has issued a ban order against the Maoists in Nepal from entering into their Territory. To recall, it was India that sheltered the Nepali Maoists for over a decade when they were waging a revolt in their homeland and were categorized as terrorists across the globe. The US has yet to lift the terrorist tag from the Maoists.

Now, the Maoists after joining the main stream politics consider themselves as a democratic force and prior to that signed an agreement in New-Delhi with the main stream political parties in Nepal, this Indian move to stop the Maoists is rather perplexing, say analysts. To recall, the Indian establishment brought the leaders of the then agitating seven parties in Nepal in Delhi and managed a “12-Point Treaty” with the Maoists on November 22, 2005 which facilitated the Monarch to step down from power.

As reported, some Maoists’ leaders along with their cadres who were trying to cross the border from somewhere in Baitadi district were stopped by the Border Security Force saying that they have orders to stop them from entering into India.

Source: The Telegraph Nepal, September 27, 2007