Interim Plan

Following two days of 'intense' deliberations, the National Development Council, the apex policy-making body of the National Planning Commission (NPC), has finalized a concept paper of the three-year Interim Plan, to be implemented from mid-July. We congratulate the NPC for successfully completing its ritual of formulation of the plan, albeit with certain reservations
Let's first talk on the pros and cons of the plan. It is good that some of the goals of the plan, like achieving an average 5.5 percent economic growth, appears relatively realistic. We believe achieving the growth rate will not be a difficult task should conducive entrepreneurship prevail after the CA polls in November.

However, it is bad that the plan has incorporated some targets that are really ambitious, and difficult to achieve. Like, containing inflation at 5.6 percent seems unrealistic since we all know the government has very little influence on domestic inflation rate. For example, agriculture production, which has the largest weight in the basket of consumer index, is prone to unpredictable fluctuations due to erratic weather, so are its prices. Similarly, in no way can the future price of imported items like petroleum products and its consequent multiplier effects, be simply gauged.

Likewise, lowering incidence of poverty to 24 percent is something difficult to materialize. No doubt, we were able lower a remarkable 11 percentage points in the past. But, keep in mind that that happened in the period of seven years and the NPC this time aims lower poverty rate by seven percentage points within three years, that too at a time when the economy is showing no signs of recovery and growth rate remittance inflow is dwindling. We have reiterated many times in the past what the country lacks at the moment is not a good policy per se, but a sound entrepreneurial environment, which has been rapidly deteriorating in recent months.
Why has foreign investment dried up, and why is additional domestic investment constantly shrinking, despite the fact that borrowing rate is at its lowest and the economy is in excess liquidity condition? Because, the country has no investment environment at all.

Labor unrest, which often carries political agendas rather than labor interests, is at its height. Entrepreneurs have been compelled to compromise with forces outside factories, which has greatly inflated labor costs, thereby eroding competitiveness. We believe that the government should overhaul its failed internal security strategies and place a new and convincing one to improve the law and order situation.

Another important aspect we have raised is that the country desperately needs a powerful body to independently evaluate the implementation of the plan. The institution that formulates plan shouldn't be allowed to evaluate the progress of the implementation. It is shameful that the NPC wasn't able to bring mid-term evaluation of the Tenth Plan on time, which means that the institution failed in bringing timely corrections, which are vital to keep the plan on track by dealing with emerging challenges.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 27, 2007

CA Poll

The eight-party government has finally achieved yet another milestone on the road to sustained peace in the country and the people's aspiration of converting Nepal into a democratic republic. Despite certain hurdles and some crisis of confidence among the ruling parties, the agreement on holding the Constituent Assembly election on 22nd November this year has given forth a positive message. Encouragingly, within 24 hours of announcement of the poll date the country has set its sights on the goal to be achieved in the next five months. It is now the duty of all political parties, civil society, civil servants, security officials and the general public to work towards that goal. The stakeholders, however, should not forget that the situation at present is certainly not congenial for free and fair elections. So the task ahead is not only arduous but also clouded by uncertainty.

This is the first time ever that the Nepali people have an opportunity to decide their own fate, as the new constitution will be drafted by representatives elected by them. The first and foremost condition for free and fair elections is a peaceful environment. The Election Commission is rightly worried about the security situation. It is therefore the duty of the government to settle the issues raised by dissenters and seek their cooperation in holding the elections in a free and fair environment. The situation will not be congenial until and unless representatives of all the political parties are able to canvass in the remotest parts of the country without any fear and intimidation. Unfortunately, in order to achieve that goal the country has to court the Madhesis and the Maoists.

Except for providing 21 days to the Electoral Constituencies Delimitation Commission to review the report it submitted on 12 April, the government has not addressed the demands of the Madhesis. The onus is now on government to persuade them to cooperate and participate actively in the elections so that the dream of building a new Nepal will materialize. The Madhesis should understand that if we fail to hold the CA poll this time, we might see the beginnings of a civil war that could end up dismembering our country into various pieces. The Maoists' case is a bit different from that of the Madhesis. They have to discipline themselves because they are in the government. If the comrades are at all concerned about the existence of this country, they should immediately give up their violent methods of impressing the people through intimidation. They should try to win hearts through peaceful means instead. If the CA election is postponed yet again, it is likely that the reason will be the Madhesis or the Maoists, or both. If either of these parties shows any intention of disrupting the poll, regressive and pro-king elements will be more than happy to add fuel to the fire.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, June 26, 2007

Devil’s Advocate: Prachanda

As Nepal goes through a difficult transition, what is the stand of the country’s Maoists on the important issues that will determine the future? Nepal’s Maoist leader Prachanda spoke exclusively to CNN-IBN on those issues in an interview on Devil’s Advocate.

Karan Thapar: Now that the interim Government has given itself the power to abolish the monarchy, if the King interferes in politics, don't you think you should withdraw your demand for the immediate abolition of the monarchy?

Prachanda: No, we don't feel that. Although the Parliament has already decided that two-thirds majority of Parliament can abolish the monarchy, in that sense we feel that our demand is justified.

Karan Thapar: So you want Parliament to abolish the monarchy immediately?

Prachanda: Yes, we want that Parliament should take initiative and monarchy should be abolished immediately.

Karan Thapar: But then what is the point of having a constituent Assembly in four or five months’ time. This should be decided by the Assembly.

Prachanda: The constituent Assembly is quite necessary to restructure the whole state. It is not the question related only to the monarchy.

Karan Thapar: But the monarchy is an important part of the structure of Nepal. Surely, this is a decision the Assembly should decide. If you don’t decide this in the Assembly, you are disrespecting the Assembly.

Prachanda: We are not disrespecting the Assembly. We have compromised with other parties that after the election, at the first meeting of the Assembly, we will decide the fate of the monarchy. But during this one-year period, it has been proved that until and unless the monarchy is there, it will create disturbance and try their best to derail the process. Therefore, we try to take initiative.

Karan Thapar: So the problem is that you don’t trust King Gyanendra ?

Prachanda: Exactly. But it is not the question of individuals. It’s the question of this feudal institution that should be abolished.

Karan Thapar: So you are not ready to let the Assembly take this important decision?

Prachanda: Why has the Parliament decided right now that two-thirds majority can abolish the monarchy before the elections?

Karan Thapar: But just because the Assembly has given itself the power does not mean it has to exercise the power?

Prachanda: But the provision is there that if serious disturbance comes from the monarchy, in our assessment, serious disturbance has already occurred through the monarchy.

Karan Thapar: All right. Let me question you on that. On Tuesday, your colleague, Baburam Bhattarai said that he is scared that the King might engineer a coup with the help of the Nepalese Army. He even said that General Katwal, the Army Chief is a foster brother of the King. Is that a real fear or is that Mr Bhattarai’s imagination?

Prachanda: It is an open secret that Mr Katwal has been educated and raised by the Monarch therefore he has the real relation with the Monarch. But right now we feel that they are trying to activate their forces. So that is the danger from that kind of a relation.

Karan Thapar: So you are really scared that the King and Mr Katwal could organize a coup?

Prachanda: No, right now, I don’t think they will organize a coup. In some section of leadership of the Army, we heard that they are trying to do some things.

Karan Thapar: But you are not taking that seriously.

Prachanda: No I don’t think as a whole Army, they will take such an initiative. In the whole history of our political development, the Army has not taken such kind of decision. They also know the overall political consciousness of our masses and people.

Karan Thapar: So you trust the Army and are prepared to trust General Katwal?

Prachanda: It is not a question of trust. Katwal may have some sentiments with the Monarch and you will imagine some kind of disturbance. But on the whole I don’t feel that they will be able to take such an initiative.

Karan Thapar: This is very interesting because on this issue you have a slightly different opinion to your deputy. Mr Bhattarai is rather scared about this. You are not worried.

Prachanda: We have information that in some sections they will try but the will not be able to, that is my point.

Karan Thapar: Though the Prime Minister has not said this officially and formally, many people believe that he would like to retain the monarchy in a ceremonial form, perhaps like the British

Queen. Do you believe that is Mr Koirala’s actual position?

Prachanda: Yes, I think five years back I had a regular contact discussion with Mr Koirala and he’s not quite clear about his own position. He vacillates questions of the monarchy and the republic.

Karan Thapar: Is he confused or is he trying to find a clever way of keeping the monarchy?

Prachanda: Previously I thought he was trying to find an artful way of abolishing the monarchy. But in the latter half of the development I think he was trying to find an artful way to save the monarchy.

Karan Thapar: So the Prime Minister is trying to save the monarchy?

Prachanda: Yes, when he says ceremonial monarchy and then he says I want to give some political space to the Monarch, all these things prove that.

Karan Thapar: On Sunday the PM revealed that he had advised King Gyanendra and Crown Prince Paras to abdicate in favour of Prince Hridendra. If that were to happen, could the Communist accept a ceremonial monarchy?

Prachanda: It is not a question of Communist. The whole nation will not accept such a ridiculous thing.

Karan Thapar: Not even Prince Hridendra, who is only four or five years old?
Prachanda: Yes, nobody will agree to that.

Karan Thapar: If the constituent Assembly meets and decides to retain the ceremonial monarchy, will the Maoists respect and honour that decision?

Prachanda: We do not believe that kind of a result will come.

Karan Thapar: But if it comes?

Prachanda: If it comes, we will respect what the masses want and we will teach the masses what they did is not correct but we will respect the decision.

Karan Thapar: So you will accept a ceremonial monarchy if the constituent Assembly decides to keep one?

Prachanda: My point is that we will respect the decision and ideologically we will again peacefully try to educate the masses.

Karan Thapar: Peacefully? There will be no arms struggle?

Prachanda: Time and again I have cleared this point that we will respect the decision.

Karan Thapar: The reason I want to clear it again is because at the moment you are demanding immediate abolition. So you will accept a ceremonial monarchy if the constituent Assembly decides to keep one?

Prachanda: Yes. That’s why I’m here. If we do not respect the decision, how can we be part of the elections?

Karan Thapar: That’s interesting because at the same time you want to abolish the monarchy before the Assembly meets but leave that aside. Let us now move on the question on the election of the constituent Assembly. On the 15th of this month, speaking in Kirtipur, you said you don’t even believe it’s likely to happen in December. Given that the election has already been postponed once, are you confident it will be held this year?

Prachanda: We have serious doubt it will be held. We are for the election. As soon as possible, it should be held but because of the experience we have serious suspicion.

Karan Thapar: You are seriously doubting that the election will be held this year?

Prachanda: Yes, we have serious doubt.

Karan Thapar: How much of a responsibility will the that of the Prime Minister?

Prachanda: Main responsibility should be taken by the Prime Minister because when we entered in the negotiation and the agreement, the PM time and again said if I will not be able to hold elections in June, then morally I will not be the PM.

Karan Thapar: Do you think, because he has not been able to hold the elections by June, morally he should step down?

Prachanda: I am not saying that. It’s the PM himself who said this time and again.

Karan Thapar: But you are saying that the responsibility for delay, the failure to hold the election on time is that of the Prime Minister.

Prachanda: Main responsibility is that of the Prime Minister.

Karan Thapar: Why did he fail? Because he does not wants to hold it or is it because he is weak? What is the explanation?

Prachanda: My point is that the Prime Minister and his party could not take the concrete position of the monarchy ad the republic. This vacillation in its political position is the main reason.

Karan Thapar: In your eyes, is the PM vacillating because he is actually trying to find a way of retaining the monarchy and therefore he keeps delaying the elections.

Prachanda: I have serious doubts that the PM wants to retain monarchy and therefore he is trying to play with the situation.

Karan Thapar: How much tension has this introduced in your relationship with the Prime Minister?

Prachanda: There have been many ups and downs, twists and turns in the relationship but yet I think that the relation is not so cold. We are in a warm relation which some times gets very tough as well.

Karan Thapar: Sher Bahadur Doeba, the leader of the Nepali Congress Democratic Party says that the obstacle to holding election with the constituent assembly are the terrorist acts of the Maoists. He blames you.

Prachanda: It is quite wrong. It is Sher Bahadur Doeba himself who doesn’t wants to have elections. For the first time when we entered into this negotiation with Doeba, he is the person who was quite against this election of the Constituent Assembly.

Karan Thapar: Let me put this to you. Suppose the elections do not happen in November-December. How serious will that be for Nepal?

Prachanda: It will be a disaster, I think. Whole political scenario can change in a serious anarchy in this country. I don’t want to imagine the results.

Karan Thapar: If such a disaster happens, can the interim government survive that disaster?

Prachanda: I don’t think so. In that situation, another serious mass movement should be organised and we will be with the masses.

Karan Thapar: When you say that another mass movement should be organised, are you talking about a return to arms struggle?

Prachanda: Not at all. It will be a peaceful mass movement.

Karan Thapar: If you are going to organize a peaceful mass movement, does that mean also that you will leave the interim government?

Prachanda: When we will be forced to go into a serious mass movement, at that time we will abandon the interim government. We will be out of the government, but will be in the legislature.

Karan Thapar: So you will be in the Parliament but leave the interim government?

Prachanda: Yes. That’s right.

Karan Thapar: So let me repeat, what you are saying, that if there are no elections in the constituent assembly in November or December, it will (a) be a disaster in Nepal, (b) you will launch a mass movement and (c) and at that point you will leave the interim government.

Prachanda: Yes. Exactly. We will leave the interim government but will retain in the Parliament and we will handle the mass movement in a peaceful way.

Karan Thapar: Mr Prachanda lets talk about your party of the Maoists. You have agreed to surrender your arms, to out your combatants in camps, to return or cease property and discipline the young communist league. Your critics say that on all these issues, you are cheating. Tell me, are your cadres not refusing to obey your orders or are you only too happy for your orders not to be obeyed.

Prachanda: I want to make it clear that we have not surrendered our arms. We have agreed to integrate both the armies on a new basis.

Karan Thapar: Let me explore that. E N Martin the United Nations Special Representative says that 30,850 Maoist combatants have registered in camps, but only 2,855 arms have been handed it. That is a huge discrepancy. Are you holding back your arms?

Prachanda: The data is incorrect. I think it is somewhere close to 3000.

Karan Thapar: But look at the difference, thirty thousand combatants and just three thousand weapons. Where are the other weapons?

Prachanda: Yes, it is a serious question and time and again I’ve tried to make it clear that our comrades are not all armed with modern weapons. They have been armed with grenade, crude bombs and the likes.

Karan Thapar: Have you surrendered everything? Or are you hiding some stock?

Prachanda: Yes, we have stored all the bombs, grenades, guns and everything. We have in fact registered all the arms and explosives.

Karan Thapar: Let me quote to you what Nankishore Punj the leader of your Maoist army said. He said, “If we detect more arms in the future that are presently out of our memory and control, then we will inform the UN monitors.” How can you not remember where your arms are? It sounds as if you are cheating.

Prachanda: Its not a question of cheating. When we were in the war, we remained in the rural areas, jungles and scattered in different parts of the country. We did not have a really disciplined barrack like that.

Karan Thapar: So you cant remember where your arms are?

Prachanda: The arms may have gone missing in few places.

Karan Thapar: Alright. Let me put in something else to you. E N Martin says that instead of surrendering and registering in camps, your combatants have instead joined the young communist league. In that place, even boys under 18 have been registered.

Prachanda: You have to understand the whole phenomena of communist league. You should go back to the question on the paramilitary forces we have organised during the conflict.

Karan Thapar: Have you moved your Maoist Army combatants into the League?

Prachanda: No that’s not true. However in the league, some combatants are there who were the commanders in PLA. But we have not kept this any secret.

Karan Thapar: These combatants who have joined the young communist league—are they indulging in violence? Because the Prime Minister has gone on record to say that the Young Communist League is like a ‘young criminal league.’

Prachanda: I am sure he must have been out of his mind when he said such a thing. It is a serious charge that they have made. Later on when we discussed it with the PM he said he was sorry for the comment.

Karan Thapar: Did he apologise to you? Did he actually used the word ‘sorry’?

Prachanda: Not exactly. But by his explanation he sounded apologetic. He said it was due to an emotional outburst and the given situations that he said such a thing.

Karan Thapar: Its not just the PM who accuses the Young Communist League of indulging in violence, extortion and intimidation. Sher Bahadur Doeba also says similar things. Many of the members of the Seven Party Alliance too feel the same. Are you using the Young Communist League to intimidate or to threaten?

Prachanda: In my opinion people are exaggerating the whole issue.

Karan Thapar: By saying they are exaggerating, you are hinting that there may be little truth, but they are exaggerating it.

Prachanda: There may have been small incidents, but we are trying to minimize any kind of violence.

Karan Thapar: So do you accept there have been such instances?

Prachanda: Yes.

Karan Thapar: You also told Former President Jimmy Carter that you would correct the ‘mistakes’ of the Young Communist League. So that means you clearly accept those mistakes?

Prachanda: When we were there at the Central Community meeting, I myself said that we will have to minimise such kinds of incidents. But mainly and basically what communist league is doing is correct because they are building roads, plating trees and doing much public work.

Karan Thapar: People say, Prachanda if orders about returning seized land, Maoist leaders disregard him. Do your local cadres disregard your orders?

Prachanda: No it is not the case. Returning the land is a very sensitive question. We have initiated from the Western districts of Nepal. But we still have to settle the question of settlement of peasants.

Karan Thapar: Can people trust Prachanda to do what he says.

Prachanda: They trust and they should trust. We have initiated the process and this is again a very sensitive issue that we have to decide the settlement of peasants.

Karan Thapar: So what you are saying is: Give me time, I will surrender seized property.

Prachanda: It needs some time.

Karan Thapar: But you will fulfill the commitment to surrender seized property? Is that a promise?

Prachanda: Yes that’s a promise.

Karan Thapar: And you will also ensure that the Young Communist League do not indulge in violence, that’s another promise.

Prachanda: Yes that’s a promise. But you should also see that many a times provocation leads to such things. Like it happened in the Tarai region of the Madhesis, when our comrades were provoked into violence.

Karan Thapar: But will you exercise control, now? Will you keep telling them not to indulge in violence?

Prachanda: Yes, very much.

Karan Thapar: My last question is, when the elections to the constituent assembly take place, if you don’t get a majority, will you accept a minority role or will you boycott the Assembly.

Prachanda: We will respect the decision. We may be in the minority and we will struggle ideologically and politically.

Karan Thapar: But will you accept the minority position if that is the outcome.

Prachanda: We must have to accept it.

Karan Thapar: Thank you Mr Prachanda for this candid interview.

Source: CNN-IBN, June 25, 2007

India-Nepal Sentimental Relationship

Kamala Sarup

There are many commonalities in culture, music and other social aspects between Nepal and India. The recent musicians showed that there are no boundaries between India and Nepal and they shared almost everything. It is a traditional musical instrument common to both Nepal and India and has grown in each of the countries both independently and through constant interactions. The commonalities of culture are always major assets to bring people of Nepal and India together. One cannot ignore these commonalities of culture".(Source:Spotlight)
Nepal and India have intimate relationship. India and Nepal are close and friendly neighbors. Relations between Nepal and India have been traditionally close. Our relationship is unique.
How do we look at ethnic diversity in India and in Nepal? What do we suggest to implement various programs effectively for the people?

A Nepali Scholar said recently to me"Talking about India first, there is no other nation-state on the planet that is as diverse as India. Nepali statesmen, thinkers and political party activists must take lessons from India's success in this regard. In about 60 years of independence Indian leaders have created institutions and means to come up with a progressively integrated nation. The federated state structure and recognition of regional languages, secular constitution, massive educational investment, affirmative action, separation of powers and independent bureaucracy, economic liberalization and other such bold initiatives have given theIndian state legitimacy and resiliency through turbulent times". He said
"The media works in tandem with non-governmental organisations and intelligentsia, and they together form civil society in a conflict situation. Further, reality is often mediated through the media. It is only based on the information provided by the media, people make a choice. If people do not get enough information, their choice will not be an informed one. So the rights of journalists are important to fearlessly report events of diverse nature. For instance, at least seven journalists have been reported missing during the emergency period in Nepal a year ago. Media should continue its efforts towards a just resolution to the conflict. It should highlight efforts towards peace and downplay events that escalate conflict. One may call this as advocacy journalism. But that is how journalism has to function in a conflict situation.

Ethnic diversity should be appreciated. At times, in the name of unity, uniformity is promoted. The concept of unity in diversity should gain ground in both the countries. Nepalese population may be broadly classified into three major ethnic groups in terms of their origin: Indo-Nepalese, Tibeto-Nepalese and indigenous Nepalese. More than 75 percent of the population is Indo-Nepalese. In India, the emergence of coalition governments at the centre is a reflection of the aspirations of different linguistic and social groups. Thus now the central government in India has council of ministers from diverse caste, ethnic and linguistic backgrounds. Polity should have heterogeneity because, after all, it has to cater to a heterogeneous population. Probably, Maoist insurgency in Nepal would decline if aspirations of different sections of the people were met.
There is a tendency both in India and Nepal to deny caste discrimination, or rather to take a functionalist stand of justifying the caste system in terms of the Hindu social order. Does this approach promote social harmony? Definitely, not. The first step to get rid of social discrimination is to accept the fact that there is discrimination. For instance, the position of not recognising caste as a discriminatory factor taken by India and Nepal at the World Conference against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance in Durban in 2001 only helps safeguard such unjust social structures". Dr. I. Arul Aram, Ph.D., said to me.

Dr Arul further added "At times, Nepalese elites living outside the country are Kathmandu-centric and they fail to notice any of the problems of rural Nepal. India being a big neighbour, it is nothing wrong having cooperation in terms of military supplies and sharing of defence intelligence information. The Maoist insurgency in Nepal has claimed over 10,000 lives since it began in February, 1996. It now affects 73 out of 75 districts. The rebels have raised their own guerrilla force, militia and parallel government units in their strongholds. They also operate parallel people’s courts and are preparing to implement new Maoist-oriented syllabi in schools in their strongholds. This has made the Government dysfunctional in almost all Nepal". "In a developing country, the Government has a large share in development. But the Government should be committed and be devoid of corruption. Also, tendency of Nepalese governance to centralise and the lack of focus on development are sustaining Maoist insurgency. Only development can bring forth an egalitarian society and help integrate the refugees into the mainstream. Nepal is a small country and the problems cannot be big if there is a political will to solve them. Recent opinion polls in Nepal show that there is an overwhelming public support for peace".he said.

Source: Mediafreedom.com, June 24, 2007

Balancing act

Presentation of the national budget (2007-08), the first by the eight-party interim government, is only two weeks away. This budget will also mark the end of the 10th Five-Year Plan and commencement of the Three-Year Interim Plan. The upcoming budget is bound to be a tough balancing act, not only because of the fast-growing demands coming from the myriad groups, but also because of the different priorities of the various constituents of the government. Added to this will be the heavy burden of reconstruction and rehabilitation, plus the constituent assembly polls. Therefore, the upcoming budget will have to be substantially larger than the previous budget — it is expected to hover at around Rs.160 billion. As the average economic growth rate during the past several years (including this year’s estimated rate of 2.5 per cent) has barely kept pace with the population increase, the country has hardly grown in net terms.

This implies that the foreign aid component of the budget will have to swell. As issues of uplift of the disadvantaged communities and development of backward regions have come into sharp focus, these are likely to force the eight parties’, and therefore the government’s, special attention. There is also a pressing need to make bigger allocations for the social sector, particularly health and education, to make these services accessible to the under-privileged. The government is also under heavy pressure from other sectors such as industry and agriculture for more money, and even from its employees for pay hike. It may have to consider substantial grants for the local bodies where the elective vacancies may shortly be filled by nomination. Because, over the years, almost every sector of the national economy has suffered from huge problems emanating from the conflict and its effects, such special push for greater government attention is not unnatural.

To stimulate the sluggish economy should constitute a principal task of the government. Finance minister Dr Ram Sharan will also have to give the budget something of an “inclusive” character at a time of inclusive politics. The interim government’s Common Minimum Programme (CMP) could provide some common ground. Inclusiveness also means that the constituent parties should be widely consulted and the outcome should reflect their consensus. In view of the too many competing needs, much more than in the past years, and the limited resources, there is also a danger that the resources could be thinly scattered. Finance ministers in Nepal have not had to deliver on their promises, and their emphasis has been on making the budget sound impressive at the time of presentation. Just look at the development budget of every year and at the wide gap between promise and performance. Even the quantum of estimated foreign aid and actual disbursement may well differ. Besides, failure to cut down on wasteful expenditure and to crack down on financial corruption can send the best-laid plans haywire. This has been one of the weakest points of successive governments.

Source: The Himalayan Times, June 25, 2007