Reality Check for Nepal - Part-I

Proof by contradiction

Mathematicians often use “proof by contradiction” in order to solve difficult problems that deny straightforward answers. When it is impossible (or too difficult) to directly prove the veracity of a statement, mathematicians tactfully show its opposite to be untrue, thus proving the statement itself to be true. We are witnessing in Nepal today, a similar proof.There were many who decried the alliance between the SPA and the Maoists as “unholy”. There were many who questioned the Maoists’ commitment to “mainstream politics”. But there were more who believed otherwise, and they happened to be the ones with the loudest voice and strongest influence.

This group that controlled the media and so-called “civil society” organizations, along with the political parties, of course, led us into believing that the Maoists were dying to join peaceful, competitive politics while an arrogant and ambitious king was only using them as an excuse to consolidate his own power.If the parties were given a chance to have their way, we were told, they would deliver us a “peaceful solution” to the Maoist insurgency as opposed to the king’s “military solution”. The anti-royal regime fervor had been pumped to such feverish pitch that sensible people couldn’t even demand the bases for such lofty claims from these “peaceful-solution-walahs”.

More than a year has now passed since these “peaceful-solutionists” goaded their fellow countrymen to risk their lives and put the SPA back in the driver’s seat. Time has come around to examine their claims again.Do we have peace now? Is any solution in sight? What have been the achievements of this party-press-civil society-led route to peace (not to mention a “new Nepal”)?Events in the past one year are clearly contradicting their predictions that a “safe-landing” to the Maoists would assure us peace and a better Nepal. By contradiction then, as mathematicians might put it, the opposite (i.e., that the SPA-M alliance was indeed “unholy”, and that the Maoists couldn’t be trusted to enter the “mainstream”), are now being proved true.Let us examine more closely the fallout of the “peaceful-solution” route:

The fallout

An immediate casualty of this misguided effort was the 1990 constitution, a document once hailed as among “the best” in the world. Why anger against a king (who allegedly misused the constitution) had to translate into wholesale bashing and trashing of the constitution itself is a million-dollar question, without an answer.One could hardly come across a better example of “throwing the baby out with the bathwater”. Nonetheless, the swift annulment of the 1990 constitution exposed the dearth of ideas (to solve the insurgency) in the SPA ranks. An agenda that was brought to the fore solely on the point of guns was thoughtlessly accepted as the “only solution”.The fact that to this day, an overwhelming majority of the Nepalese people still don’t know what a constituent assembly is, clearly indicates that this “solution” was mere political expediency, not popular demand. Secondly, given that the 1990 constitution was a document that the SPA had themselves helped create, its unceremonious end exposed our “leaders” faith and conviction in their own words and deeds, and the strength (or rather lack) of their convictions.

As per the Maoists’ wishes, the UN was brought in to help resolve Nepal’s insurgency. While this was in the interests of a “terrorist group” aiming to attain the status of a “rebel force”, it would have been in the interests of all Nepalese too if the UN had been given some teeth.But when after months of waiting we finally learnt of the 10:1 ratio of combatants to arms, we began questioning the efficacy of the much-hyped “arms management” process. And now as we watch a hapless Ian Martin wailing about the stalled arms verification process (and a growling Baburam threatening to throw the UN out), we know definitively that the rebels have outfoxed the "re-instateds." While the Maoists' managed to use the UN gimmick to attain international stature, the SPA has failed to use the same to provide a sense of security to the Nepalese people.

Finally, when the CPA was signed in November, the act of legitimizing the Maoists’ 10-year brutal war— a war originally waged against parliamentary democracy— was completed. In the preamble of this document, the Maoist insurgency is placed as a continuum in the Nepali people’s struggle for freedom since “around 1950”. Hence, a war that was waged against parliamentary democracy, against the 1990 constitution, was allowed to be re-interpreted as a war solely against monarchy and feudalism.By then, of course, the SPA had removed the terrorist tags from the heads of their Maoist compatriots, freed their leaders who had been painstakingly captured by the security forces, and opened up the whole nation for them to carry out their (until then, forbidden) politics. The opposite — enabling the rest of the parties to carry out activities in hitherto forbidden space — on the other hand, has not been fulfilled to this day.

Through the “peaceful-solutionists” the Maoists managed to bag their most elusive and invaluable goal: legitimacy, recognition as an open political party. But what invaluable goal did the SPA wrench off in return?And yet the unconditional give-aways to the Maoists didn’t stop there. Thence forward, they were brought into parliament, an interim constitution formed as per their wishes, and they were even given ministerial berths to run the country. Those people who’d murdered innocent Nepalis, including cadres of the SPA themselves (and who had not garnered any votes of the Nepalese people) were given the privilege of delineating our destinies purely on the strength of their guns. The use of violence for political gain was not only legitimized, but rewarded with a resounding thump.

The result is open for all to see. Every little group—student or trade union, ethnic forum, indigenous group, teachers’, dealers’, drivers’, displaceds’ anybody’s association, is using the same means to achieve their goals.The state lies effete as every interest group uses abhorable, anti-social means to achieve their narrow interests. Faith in industry, discipline, hardwork, fair-play, truth and justice has been smashed to smithereens and ability to exploit the situation to one’s advantage by any means (including violent ones) have been proven as the qualities that succeed. Through all the ups-and-downs of our 240-year history, Nepalese have probably never been more demoralized than we are today. To be sure, we are closer to state-failure today than at any point in our history.

But make no mistake, the confusion, turmoil, uncertainty, anarchy and anomie that exist today are, in reality, a Maoist’s dream. There is room to assert that the Maoists deliberately seek to use this situation to discredit and destroy the parliamentary system in Nepal—their original goal. Through the “peaceful-solution” route the Maoists have achieved what they couldn’t with ten years of armed struggle from the jungles.

Then and now

Without doubt the Maoists have made good of the break offered to them by the “peaceful-solution” beatniks. Compared to where they were in early 2006, they have moved up in leaps and bounds.By early 2006, the PLA had been reduced to a hit-and-run outfit that could only snap at the heels of a strengthening and maturing national army. The Maoists’ money-bags were fast drying up since they’d been swept clean out of the cities, the centers of extortion. A sense of impending defeat, and disillusion with Maoist ideology were leading their guerillas to surrender in hordes.

The impossibility of military takeover and inevitability of the shattering of the PLA changed hardcore believers of armed struggle into pragmatists who latched on to the SPA, their original enemies, for survival. Spurned by the king, and egged on by the “peaceful-solution” idealists the SPA took the bait.The current situation is a stark reversal of fortunes. The Maoist cantonments are over-stuffed with fake recruits, while their guerillas have reincarnated as the YCL. The common Nepali’s tax-money is paying for the sustenance and salary of these fake guerillas while extortions have resumed afresh in the cities.

Fake soldiers in cantonments have become a bigger bargaining chip than guerillas in the jungles could ever be, and what’s more, we, the people, are paying for it! Property seized during the conflict have not been returned to rightful owners, instead Maoists are busy amassing more property – royal, public or private.While arms management was the loudest, clearest call of the Nepalese people before, during and after the Jana Andolan, it is the one demand being pushed off all the time, while Maoists continually obtain whatever they ask for.

Source: Nepali Perspective, May 31, 2007

Shameful act

The act of Indian security forces, which killed a Bhutanese refugee, should be condemned from all sections of society. In fact, the human rights groups must take up this incident seriously and raise it in international forums as it is a crime committed by a so-called largest democratic country, which claims that it honors freedom and people's rights. Unfortunately, the Home Ministry, instead of condemning the killing, asked the refugees to return to UNHCR-administered camps. India blocked the road and imposed a curfew to prevent the refugees from returning to their homeland. Indian security forces acted in tandem with the Druk security forces. Both the Indian and Bhutanese security forces had held meetings last week in Phutsoling and Darjeeling to thwart the refugees' attempt to return to Bhutan. In an attempt to deny them the right to return home, India's border security forces mercilessly killed a refugee and injured scores of others.

On May 29, the Bhutanese refugees were returning to Bhutan to participate in a mock election there. The Druk regime is exercising a mock poll in the run up to a general election slated for early next year. The mockery of such exercise is that Bhutan has been run with the royal edicts. Holding such elections, in other words, is mocking democratic values. Has a country ruled by a tin-pot dictator ever become democratic? India should know it well that it has dishonored the rights of the refugees. India's pet regime has evicted hundreds of thousands of its citizens forcibly. India has protected the tin-pot dictator, who has adopted a policy of ethnic cleansing. And this was not the first incident of killing a refugee. Earlier, Indian armed forces killed a refugee who had crossed the Nepal-India border to participate in a protest rally. Since 1994, India has denied the Bhutanese refugees to hold any sort of protest programs within its territory.

In 1991, Bhutan forcibly evicted the Lhotshampas. They were ferried by West Bengal Police and dumped into the Nepali territory. India, since then, has brushed aside the refugee problem citing it as a bilateral issue, siding with the tin-pot dictator. It was a naked crime and a sheer attempt to deny the refugees' right to return home. It is very sad that Nepal has always pushed the refugee issue to the backburner. The third-country resettlement plan will not prevent the Druk dictator from evicting the people of Nepali origin so long as India protects the tin-pot dictator and encourages him to intensify the “ethnic cleansing” drive. What the people of Bhutan need is international support for the fight against the Druk dictator. So, India ought to allow the refugees to participate in the elections slated for early next year in Bhutan.

Source: The Kathmandu Post, May 31, 2007

Reorienting foreign policy priorities

Sushil K Lamsal

Foreign policy is a mixture of continuity and change. Experience stresses the importance of keeping the country focused on its own agenda in order to avoid costly aberrations and embarrassing mistakes. It might be instructive to note what went wrong in the previous years. First, there was no evidence that foreign policy was a priority of the government. Second, the weakness of Foreign Service professionals and ineptitude of political leadership resulted in the defeat of Nepal in the election to a non-permanent seat in the Security Council. Third, the country lost enormous opportunities.

There is thus a need to chart a new direction in Nepal’s strategic vision, mission and plans.The government would do well to fill the diplomatic vacancies soon. On the one hand, Nepal needs to convince the international community that the peace process is irreversible and that it needs greater support from them than before to make peace permanent. Obviously, Nepal’s diplomacy should be aimed at retaining and if possible increasing the official development assistance from foreign countries and to narrow the gap between commitment and disbursement. On the other hand, if the peace process breaks down, the country will plunge into chaos, perhaps inviting foreign role in restoring order.

The diplomatic machinery needs to be revamped, too. A separate, professional diplomatic service with suitable incentive packages to attract the talented youth might be a step in the right direction. Foreign policy should be geared towards taking full advantage of economic opportunities and minimising the negative effects of globalisation.It is advisable for Nepal to focus on bilateral ties with its immediate neighbours. Though a renewed focus on Nepal-India and Nepal-China relations does not necessarily mean a reduced role in regional forums like SAARC and BIMSTEC, uninformed decision to join multilateral organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation will do the country more harm than good. Nepal indeed has few alternatives to comprehensive, forward-looking and interactive relationships with its two neighbours based on two-way economic linkages.

Stress is also being placed on foreign employment. While remittances may help keep macro-economic variables in shape, foreign employment is no answer to domestic unemployment.In the short-term, our foreign policy goal will mean that the Labour Ministry does not make a mess of the Korean offer of providing annual employment for 5,000 Nepalis in South Korea. Equally important is bilateral MoUs on labour with Malaysia, Gulf countries and Israel. Besides, opening embassies in labour-importing countries shows how the fundamentals of foreign policy have changed. While critics argue that economic diplomacy is redundant, the economic dimension of diplomacy has lately acquired great significance. Hence, it is in keeping with the changed realities that Nepal’s foreign policy priorities should be reoriented.

Source: The Himalayan Times, May 31, 2007

TAAN's Woes

MINISTER for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation Prithivi Subba Gurung has given assurances that the government would implement the Trekking Registration Certificate (TRC) system in the near future to ease problems in the trekking sector and support the trekking agents. Speaking at a function organised by the Trekking Agents' Association of Nepal in Kathmandu on Tuesday, Minister Gurung said that as trekking was an important part of the tourism industry, the government had been working towards further developing and promoting this sector. Trekking is one of the important sectors of the tourism industry. Nepal's tourism industry boomed in the past because of adventure sports like mountaineering, trekking, rafting and others. The share of trekking business in the overall tourism industry is bigger than the other sectors. Many tourists come to Nepal for the thrill adventure tourism provides. Most of the tourists who visit Nepal do not miss trekking. Nepal has a difficult terrain and pristine nature. The foreigners want to see the natural beauty of Nepal. Thus, they go trekking, which provides them opportunities not only to enjoy the nature but also understand the Nepalese people and their unique culture. Although small in size, Nepal is rich in natural and cultural diversity, which has attracted many foreigners.

Tourism is the backbone of the Nepalese economy. The role of tourism in the Nepalese economy is very important. Be it in earning foreign currency or providing employment, the place of the tourism industry is vital. But the tourism industry suffered a big setback in the past due to the political unrest, instability and conflict. After the restoration of peace and democracy in the country, the tourism industry has started picking up. This is a matter of satisfaction for all. However, this sector is yet to fully recover. Nepal's tourism industry shows great potential. Thus, necessary attention and priority must be given for the development and promotion of this sector. Adventure tourism like trekking has an important place in this industry. However, the trekking business has also suffered from various problems. Those involved in the trekking business have demanded that the government take necessary steps to further develop the trekking sector. Considering the demand and concern of the trekking agents, the government has taken some measures towards this end. One of the demands of the trekking agents is the implementation of the trekking registration certificate. The minister has assured TAAN of early implementation of this system, which is expected to address many of the problems facing the trekking agents in Nepal.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 31, 2007

Enhance Autonomy

Minister of Local Development Dev Prasad Gurung has stressed on strengthening the autonomy of the local bodies to make service delivery reliable and effective. Speaking at a programme organised by the Kathmandu Metropolitan Corporation on Tuesday, Minister Gurung pointed out that since the local bodies worked closely with the people, the role of local institutions should be made more relevant and stronger to enhance local democracy and development. Referring to new kinds of challenges faced by the municipalities due to urbanisation and unplanned settlement, Minister Gurung emphasised on the need to enact new laws consistent with contemporary social requirements and emerging challenges. As outlined by Minister Gurung, the interim constitution has given proper recognition to the instrumentality of the local bodies for strengthening local democracy and peace.

It is, therefore, incumbent upon the present government to assure that the provision relating to local government is implemented. Similarly, as people are heaving a sigh of relief due to the evolving peace in the country, the local bodies should take special note regarding development projects in congruence with the local needs and demands. The incomplete development projects for different reasons in the past should be completed without incurring any delays. However, it is worrying to note that the local government staff have not been able to operate in some parts of the country. Besides the inherent technical and institutional problems hampering the performance of the local bodies, some terror groups have intimidated the people and presented obstacles in their functioning. The government should be serious enough to ensure that the law and order situation is maintained properly and the local bodies are allowed to operate without any disturbances. Moreover, as required by the interim constitution, an all-party political mechanism should be established in the local bodies to ensure that local democracy starts functioning smoothly. Unless the local bodies are based on democratic values and deliver services appropriately, it is difficult to cater to the aspirations of the people.

Source: The Rising Nepal, May 31, 2007